Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[wbrocks67]

Also, justice for Shalala that she was the 2nd call of the night.

[wbrocks67]

McCready still has a shot? That's good news. Was sad that his was so close too.

I'd imagine Ortiz Jones can ask for a recount. I think it's literally within like 0.2%.

Also, when are they going to call McBath? She's out of the 0.5 range at 0.6 right now.

[CellarDoor]

Confirmed that there are 472K votes left to be counted in Maricopa county.

[Nyvin]

What is the current House vote total in NC? I know that their gerrymander was so effective not a single seat switched there, but I'd like to see just how effective.

Barely held on to NC-09 and NC-02/NC-13 were 5-6 point wins.

Bad night for the NCGOP altogether though. Their supreme court packing scheme backfired hugely and now Democrats have a bigger majority on the state Supreme Court, so I'd expect challenges to the Congressional and legislative maps at the state level.

The pro-ICE Sheriff in Wake County lost too.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Looks as though Tester has the edge to squeak by again. He needs to write a thank you card to all the third party voters for the third time lmao.

[wbrocks67]

Confirmed that there are 472K votes left to be counted in Maricopa county.

How are the remaining ballots looking for Sinema? Is Maricopa a good county for her?

[Storr]

What is the current House vote total in NC? I know that their gerrymander was so effective not a single seat switched there, but I'd like to see just how effective.

Barely held on to NC-09 and NC-02/NC-13 were 5-6 point wins.

Bad night for the NCGOP altogether though. Their supreme court packing scheme backfired hugely and now Democrats have a bigger majority on the state Supreme Court, so I'd expect challenges to the Congressional and legislative maps at the state level.

The pro-ICE Sheriff in Wake County lost too.

Plus the NCGOP lost the supermajority in the NC House, the Senate is still up in the air with Democrats leading in several undeclared races, and the two worst constitutional amendments were rejected (both would given some of the Governor's appointment powers to the legislature). Voter ID passed, but in my opinion, voter ID laws will eventually be ruled unconstitutional/overturned. So I'm not heartbroken over that one.

[Zaybay]

Confirmed that there are 472K votes left to be counted in Maricopa county.

How are the remaining ballots looking for Sinema? Is Maricopa a good county for her?

It is literally the swing county of AZ, but the good news is that the absentees are usually much more D, just depends on how much.

[Thatkat04]

The guy on twitter reporting on how many ballots are left says there are 100,000 in Pima County. Sinema won Pima by 12 points last night. Those are probably favorable for her.

[wbrocks67]

What's fascinating to me is that somehow Dems lost in FL, lost their red states (most of them), but somehow Rosen in NV managed to iMPROVE on Hillary's margin. Was it the latino vote? You'd think if the "rural outnumbers the cities" situation is gonna happen through most of the other states, it'd happen in NV, too? Interesting how she actually is doing better than anticipated. Bodes well for AZ in the end though, I'd think

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

As I said at 2am last night, Tester wins this pretty easily.
He's has pull ahead with 88% reporting, and well over 90% of the remaining vote is from his best counties.

[Pyro]

FL is still tightening.
Nelson down 30K.
Gillum down 50K.

[Brittain33]

Something to remember: outside of the Atlas/punditsphere, a majority of Americans were expecting Republicans to hold both the House and the Senate.

Huh, I didn't notice that pre-election.  Do you have a source on this? (Genuine asking)

I do, but I'm on my phone right now, and I saw it a couple of weeks ago, so i don't have a quick link to post. I'll post it when I do.

This is basically impossible for me to believe when "Blue Wave" was a completely mainstream meme.

It was in Gallup's last poll. I think on Monday. People thought Republicans were going to hold the House by a 50-44 margin. The numbers for Senate were more lopsided.

[Alabama_Indy10]

How many Republicans in the house that distanced themselves from Trunp ended up winning?

[Comrade Funk]

How many Republicans in the house that distanced themselves from Trunp ended up winning?

Fitzpatrick won. Only Republican I know bragging about Bloomberg's endorsement. Hopefully Dems nominate someone good in 2020 because Wallace sucked.

[wbrocks67]

How many Republicans in the house that distanced themselves from Trunp ended up winning?

Fitzpatrick won. Only Republican I know bragging about Bloomberg's endorsement. Hopefully Dems nominate someone good in 2020 because Wallace sucked.

It didn't help that a ton of outside groups that normally endorse Dems endorsed Fitz. Sadly, a lot of people there believe his moderate schtick.

[wbrocks67]

NYT now has McBath +1.0 in GA-06

It would be amazing to see Handel lose tbh.

https://www.nytimes.com/elections/results/georgia-house-district-6

[MillennialModerate]

So if Tester wins(looking more and more likely) and Sinema pulls it out with all the ballots left, than a Dem +36 in the House and a Rep +2 in the Senate would be a pretty decent night for democrats all things considered.

Those are some massive IF’s

[Zaybay]

So if Tester wins(looking more and more likely) and Sinema pulls it out with all the ballots left, than a Dem +36 in the House and a Rep +2 in the Senate would be a pretty decent night for democrats all things considered.

Those are some massive IF’s

Not for MT, mostly for Sinema, but the ballot locations are promising.

[MycroftCZ]

What do we know about Tiffany Bond? For people who voted for her, is Golden likely their number 2?

[Nyvin]

It's kinda looking like ME-2 is gonna go down to the wire...

[Zaybay]

Good news for y'all looking at ME-02. The Ranked Choice vote is likely to go to Golden, polling has shown. If Golden is able to tie, then the 2nd vote should give it to himhopefully.

[Gass3268]

It's kinda looking like ME-2 is gonna go down to the wire...

It will come down to the ranked choice. I imagine Polquin will sue if he loses via ranked choice.

[Virginiá]

Good news for y'all looking at ME-02. The Ranked Choice vote is likely to go to Golden, polling has shown. If Golden is able to tie, then the 2nd vote should give it to himhopefully.

And then setting up a potential Supreme Court challenge on the validity of ballot initiatives setting rules for federal elections, which I'm sure John Roberts would love to give his opinion on.

[President Johnson]

Is there going to be a recout in Texas 23? Gina Ortiz Jones trails Will Hurd by just 0.2 or a few hundred votes. Maybe she can still get this?