The 2022 map is worse for Republicans than 2018 was for Democrats

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

If Trump wins, they are in for a STOMPING

Let's say
R's gain AL, MI
(Byrne)(Walberg)
D's gain CO
(R+1)- 54-46
2022
Florida, Pennsylvania, Georgia, NC, and AZ(if it hasn't already flip) will likely GO
(Mucarsel-Powell, Lamb, Bishop, Jackson, Gallego)
54-5=48
51-49 D
Add WI(Tidal Wave) and it's 52-48 D

(Pocan)
Tsunami
IA(OPEN)
KS(Moran)
(Axne, Davids)
If D win/wave 2020
-AL
(Byrne)
+CO, ME, AZ(Tier 1-Blue Wave)NC, GA, TX(Tier 2-Tidal Wave) KS, MT, SC(Tier 3-Tsunami)(Duran, Golden, Gallego, Olson, Jackson, Tomlinson, Svaty, Bullock, Bamberg)*
(
2022
R's gain
R Wave
NH
(Sununu)
No change
R Tidal Wave
AZ
(McSally)
+1
R Tsunami
NV
(Cegavske)
+3
D's gain
GA(Bishop)(Only in Red Wave and Tidal wave, not in GOP Tsunami)

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

It would almost certainly take an amendment to the constitution to grant DC statehood status.

I'm ignoring the PR part of your post because, while I disagree, it's a matter of opinion.

This is likely true only in that if you give DC statehood, you're going to do it by redefining the federal district to just count for actual government buildings in DC, and if you do that, you're going to have to repeal the 23rd Amendment giving the federal district 3 Electoral Votes. However, I think in a situation where DC had already gotten statehood, passing a Constitutional Amendment saying that a bunch of federal office buildings don't get 3 Electoral Votes all to themselves would be pretty simple. No one would want that.

You don't have to get rid of the 23rd amendment. I mean, ideally we should if DC is made into a state, but if it's not possible, Congress can simply pass a bill allocating the district's electoral votes to whoever wins the popular vote.

Also, I don't see why this plan wouldn't hold up in court:

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Re-sizing the district is clearly allowed, and the only limit imposed on its size is a maximum limit. I don't see how or why SCOTUS would say the district cannot be shrunk. That would be partisan af, given the context.

Even if challengers wanted to argue that Maryland needs to give it's say-so before their former land can be turned into a state, Democrats can easily get that done


-

Not sure if it’s a simple majority or 2/3’s majority to admit PR, but even if it’s a simple majority, rural white voters already uneasy about demographic transition of the US would likely get even more Republican at the admission of a 90%+ Hispanic state to the Union. It would be a pretty blatant power grab by the Democrats.

They'll get over it. If there is any substantial backlash, I'm not convinced it would last. Democrats can't live in fear of angry rural whites forever.

Agreed. Who cares what they think, they'll never vote for us anyway.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Dems will probably flip AZ (assuming McSally wins in 2020), WI, IA (if Grassley retires), PA, and NC. Outside of that most pickup opportunities are longshots.

If the map is even in 2020 (very real possibility) and Dems flip those 5 seats, they'll have a slim majority. Honestly not worth ruling out GOP Senate control until at least 2024 though.

Rubio and the GA seat*(I think Isakson will call it quits) are both more likely to flip then the open IA seat(it could flip too, but it would take a super big tsunami)

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

I'm soon going to post a detailed analysis on this, but as a little spoiler, let me just say that the amount of theoretical Senate seats that Democrats lost just by going from 2012's electoral alignment to 2016's is higher than the 4 Democrats would gain if DC and PR became States. So if the choice were between admitting DC and PR or turning the clock back to 2012, the choice is clear. Of course, the latter might not actually be possible.

That would make sense looking at the absurd trend map of 2012-2018 in the senate especially in MO/IN/ND/WV/FL and of course the fact that the already deep red states of UT/WY/NE/TN/etc stayed bright red.

Dems if they don’t makeup ground with rural whites/suburban evangelicals/conservative voters in these states will have to pray that generational turnover shuts out the GOP in states like GA/NC/TX/AZ down the road.

When GA goes blue it will most likely stay blue. It's giving me Virginia vibes