The results tonight suggest that if the economy improves this year and next, and Biden doesn't have any major scandals or foreign policy disasters, the Republicans don't have much of a path to reclaiming the trifecta.
These results do not suggest anything about the November 2024 national/federal elections, of course.
I would also add that Youngkin himself only won by 2 in what was a perfect storm against Democrats (wrong issues, wrong candidate, wrong national environment, no blunders on the R side & R convention system). If anything, that election actually proved how resilient Democratic strength in Virginia is (it’s interesting how people have recently displayed a habit of downplaying it or overcompensating for having failed to predict Youngkin's win).
Why I was skeptical of "lean r" predictions for the state senate following the 2021 elections. If that was the GOP peak, then they had no margin for error. Literally none if there are only 20 Youngkin seats. 2021 was close enough it is quite plausible Youngkin would have lost post-Dobbs in 2022.
The GOP has bounced back from its late 2010s nadir, but it is still a very different state for them with a low ceiling.
