Matt Cartwright (PA-08) may be retiring

[Schiff for Senate]

Likely R with or without him, so won’t make much difference in the grand scheme of things.

No, actually. He has working class appeal in PA08, which is how he survived in 2020. I'd say the district is likely to safe Republican (and probably closer to the latter) should Cartwright retire and a tossup with him. On the other hand it all depends on how the district is reconfigured; it Cartwright is in new territory, he might not have as much appeal (but then I imagine he'd run in the district that includes most of his former territory) Basically what recoveringdemocrat said:

Likely R with or without him, so won’t make much difference in the grand scheme of things.

Come on, you know this isn't true. First of all, it depends on the lines. But more importantly, you cannot in good faith say that this incumbent who regularly over-performs has *the same chance of winning* as a generic Democratic candidate. I'm not saying he's the favorite or anything like that; I agree he's an underdog for reelection, but "[same rating] with or without him" is just a pretty ridiculous comment regardless of what the actual rating is.

[Schiff for Senate]

Likely R with or without him, so won’t make much difference in the grand scheme of things.

Come on, you know this isn't true. First of all, it depends on the lines. But more importantly, you cannot in good faith say that this incumbent who regularly over-performs has *the same chance of winning* as a generic Democratic candidate. I'm not saying he's the favorite or anything like that; I agree he's an underdog for reelection, but "[same rating] with or without him" is just a pretty ridiculous comment regardless of what the actual rating is.

Yes, and I don’t think his recent overperformances are impressive enough to warrant a different rating with him running again? "Lean" to me implies something like "Race is competitive but one party has an advantage" whereas "Likely" is more like "Race is currently not competitive but has the potential to become competitive," and even with Cartwright running again, PA-8 is a lot closer to the second category than the first in my view. Beating an opponent Republicans had basically written off as dead by 3.6%-points in a Trump +4 district is hardly some impressive feat in an area where Democrats have historically been very strong in down-ballot races. Cartwright is basically the prime example of an overhyped "strong incumbent" who is likely to see their (already overstated) crossover appeal erode. He’s also a lot less skilled than someone like Jared Golden in navigating his district's partisan lean and has little experience running competitive general elections, in part because Republicans gave him a pass in previous years and the district's rightward shift hadn’t yet caught up with him.

Yes, the rating might change depending on how the lines are drawn, but this is one of those CDs unlikely to change to the Democrats' benefit in redistricting given that they’re likely more interested in maximizing their advantage elsewhere. It’s a district where Biden got a slight dead cat bounce in 2020 but where he’s almost certainly underwater by double-digits in terms of approval by now. Republicans aren’t losing PA-08 in an environment like this, and if they do, they’re not only losing statewide in PA/losing additional seats in the Senate but also don’t have a prayer of winning the House. This is by far one of their easiest pick-up opportunities they should flip even in a neutral year.

Then it should be safe Republican without Cartwright, not likely Republican.