Redfield & Wilton (GA): Warnock +6

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This is believable.

Not sure what this firm's track record is, but I think GA's polls were actually quite accurate even when Trump was on the ballot. 

Demographically possible. The population growth in Georgia is in Greater Atlanta while the more conservative rural areas are shrinking.

It's worth noting that GA is among the easiest states to poll. Most of the work is guessing what the electorate will look like in terms of race, and that's quite easy as well.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This is not at all surprising. Georgia is zooming left and Warnock has quickly built up a solid personal brand, especially with the oft forgotten rural Black vote (there's a reason he's on the agriculture committee) as well as middle aged suburbanites.

I was not aware that he was on the agricultural committee. But it makes perfect sense.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I think Warnock is favored, but not by nearly this much, so I can’t say he’s not beatable. It’s hard to see Georgia voting left of the generic ballot in 2022. Possible in 2024 though.

For example, If generic ballot ends up being R+3 (RCP aggregate is R+3.7 currently), I have a hard time seeing Georgia being left of R+2 this soon. That’s a 5-pt trend left from 2020.

I don't think it's that hard to believe. Georgia has been pretty consistently immune to midterm R trends in recent years.

GA is immune to waves. It resisted the 2018 D wave as well, electing Kemp as governor.
GA may as well be its own little bubble.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I think Warnock is favored, but not by nearly this much, so I can’t say he’s not beatable. It’s hard to see Georgia voting left of the generic ballot in 2022. Possible in 2024 though.

For example, If generic ballot ends up being R+3 (RCP aggregate is R+3.7 currently), I have a hard time seeing Georgia being left of R+2 this soon. That’s a 5-pt trend left from 2020.

I don't think it's that hard to believe. Georgia has been pretty consistently immune to midterm R trends in recent years.

GA is immune to waves. It resisted the 2018 D wave as well, electing Kemp as governor.
GA may as well be its own little bubble.

GA still swung D drastically from the 2014 Gov race. It went from a 7.8% R win to a 1.4% R win in 2018. GA also wasn't there yet in 2018.

That is true. But I wouldn't credit it to the 2018 wave as much as the state's changing demographics. If GA was more wave-driven, then Ds would likely have won the governorship in 2018.