Redfield & Wilton (GA): Warnock +6

[SnowLabrador]

Source: https://redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/magnified-email/issue-14/

I personally am not sure I believe this poll; it's hard to square with the generic ballot numbers. Throw it on the pile, I guess.

[Roll Roons]

Not sure what this firm's track record is, but I think GA's polls were actually quite accurate even when Trump was on the ballot. 

[2016]

Not sure what this firm's track record is, but I think GA's polls were actually quite accurate even when Trump was on the ballot. 

Any Poll that has a DEM-leaning Registration Sample for 2022 you can throw in the bin!

[pbrower2a]

Demographically possible. The population growth in Georgia is in Greater Atlanta while the more conservative rural areas are shrinking.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This is believable.

Not sure what this firm's track record is, but I think GA's polls were actually quite accurate even when Trump was on the ballot. 

Demographically possible. The population growth in Georgia is in Greater Atlanta while the more conservative rural areas are shrinking.

It's worth noting that GA is among the easiest states to poll. Most of the work is guessing what the electorate will look like in terms of race, and that's quite easy as well.

[President Johnson]

I couldn't find the poll on the page linked?

Others are questionable, like Beto's one point lead in Texas with too many undecideds. Anyway, Georgia is a pure tossup or Tilt Democratic at best. I still think Warnock is more likely to survive than Kelly, perhaps even CCM.

[beesley]

As in the UK, we don't really know where this pollster stands. They release weekly polls in the UK which election Twitter influencers promote, which aren't too removed from the results of other pollsters. However who knows whether this is the same operation here.

I couldn't find the poll on the page linked?

Others are questionable, like Beto's one point lead in Texas with too many undecideds. Anyway, Georgia is a pure tossup or Tilt Democratic at best. I still think Warnock is more likely to survive than Kelly, perhaps even CCM.

I couldn't find it either - only the gubernatorial polls. I rank Warnock as safer than Kelly and CCM like you do.

[DaleCooper]

I don't know enough about this poll to trust it, but I've long felt that Warnock is the safest of the Democrats in competitive seats.

[Horus]

This is not at all surprising. Georgia is zooming left and Warnock has quickly built up a solid personal brand, especially with the oft forgotten rural Black vote (there's a reason he's on the agriculture committee) as well as middle aged suburbanites.

[TodayJunior]

I think Warnock is favored, but not by nearly this much, so I can’t say he’s not beatable. It’s hard to see Georgia voting left of the generic ballot in 2022. Possible in 2024 though.

For example, If generic ballot ends up being R+3 (RCP aggregate is R+3.7 currently), I have a hard time seeing Georgia being left of R+2 this soon. That’s a 5-pt trend left from 2020.

[Mr.Phips]

Warnock may be saved by the runoff in the end.

[TodayJunior]

Warnock may be saved by the runoff in the end.

Valid point. Forgot about that.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

This is not at all surprising. Georgia is zooming left and Warnock has quickly built up a solid personal brand, especially with the oft forgotten rural Black vote (there's a reason he's on the agriculture committee) as well as middle aged suburbanites.

I was not aware that he was on the agricultural committee. But it makes perfect sense.

[DaleCooper]

I think Warnock is favored, but not by nearly this much, so I can’t say he’s not beatable. It’s hard to see Georgia voting left of the generic ballot in 2022. Possible in 2024 though.

For example, If generic ballot ends up being R+3 (RCP aggregate is R+3.7 currently), I have a hard time seeing Georgia being left of R+2 this soon. That’s a 5-pt trend left from 2020.

I don't think it's that hard to believe. Georgia has been pretty consistently immune to midterm R trends in recent years.

[sting in the rafters]

The math in Georgia is the same it was 30 years ago; Get black turnout to 30%, win 30% of the white vote. The only distinction now is where that 30% of the white vote is coming from couldn't be more different.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

I think Warnock is favored, but not by nearly this much, so I can’t say he’s not beatable. It’s hard to see Georgia voting left of the generic ballot in 2022. Possible in 2024 though.

For example, If generic ballot ends up being R+3 (RCP aggregate is R+3.7 currently), I have a hard time seeing Georgia being left of R+2 this soon. That’s a 5-pt trend left from 2020.

I don't think it's that hard to believe. Georgia has been pretty consistently immune to midterm R trends in recent years.

GA is immune to waves. It resisted the 2018 D wave as well, electing Kemp as governor.
GA may as well be its own little bubble.

[MT Treasurer]

Not sure what this firm's track record is, but I think GA's polls were actually quite accurate even when Trump was on the ballot.  

So were NJ's, and we know what happened there. Warnock may be less vulnerable than Kelly and Cortez Masto, but he isn’t ahead by 6 points in an environment like this.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Not sure what this firm's track record is, but I think GA's polls were actually quite accurate even when Trump was on the ballot.  

So were NJ's, and we know what happened there. Warnock may be less vulnerable than Kelly and Cortez Masto, but he isn’t ahead by 6 points in an environment like this.

Everything isn't about NJ  or VA we didn't have all our Delegation voting like our US H and Senate candidates weren't up only statewide candidates not Feds, we know it's a 304 map but if Warnock doesn't get 50% he is headed for a runoff and Mandela Barnes is no less liberal than Warnock or Cory Booker Johnson can still lose because it's a 304 map in Senate and Govs

Oz isn't betting Fetterman either, with Josh Shapiro raising the money he is raising in PA, he is gonna have coattails to pull Fetterman across-the-board

It's a Neutral Environment in SEN and Govs

[wbrocks67]

Should be noted that even in Trump's Fabrizio polls from a week or two ago that even when it had Trump up like 6, 10, 12 in PA/MI/WI, it only had him up like 3 in GA. I think GA is moving leftward faster than people think.

[ElectionsGuy]

Go ahead and believe this, guys. I'll be laughing a year from now.

Biden's approval in the state according to the poll is -1, but let's not let that get in the way of "Georgia polls were accurate" last year.

[wbrocks67]

Go ahead and believe this, guys. I'll be laughing a year from now.

Biden's approval in the state according to the poll is -1, but let's not let that get in the way of "Georgia polls were accurate" last year.

uh... they were? Georgia was the most accurate state. 538 average/forecast had Biden +1 and the special election polls were nearly exactly on point as well

[2016]

Go ahead and believe this, guys. I'll be laughing a year from now.

Biden's approval in the state according to the poll is -1, but let's not let that get in the way of "Georgia polls were accurate" last year.

If Bidens Approval were only - 1 in GA Democrats would likely hold the House & Senate because it would mean he would be above 50 % in a whole bunch of other States.

This Poll really needs to be put in the bin. There was a recent Poll in North Carolina which had Biden at 35 % JA and if he is that low no way he is just - 1 in GA.

Many of the close Races next year will be decided by the NATIONAL POLITICAL ENVIRONMENT which isn't in the Democrats' Favour this time.

I don't think Warnock can withstand a GA Electoral that will be Whiter, less educated and older with an Approval by the President which will sit in the low to mid 40ties.

[TodayJunior]

I think Warnock is favored, but not by nearly this much, so I can’t say he’s not beatable. It’s hard to see Georgia voting left of the generic ballot in 2022. Possible in 2024 though.

For example, If generic ballot ends up being R+3 (RCP aggregate is R+3.7 currently), I have a hard time seeing Georgia being left of R+2 this soon. That’s a 5-pt trend left from 2020.

I don't think it's that hard to believe. Georgia has been pretty consistently immune to midterm R trends in recent years.

That’s plausible, but a D+6 result in a hypothetical R+3 year would contradict the “immunity to waves argument”. To be immune to a wave, Georgia would have to be more or less identical to 2020, which was my point about him being favored but not by 6.

[DaleCooper]

I think Warnock is favored, but not by nearly this much, so I can’t say he’s not beatable. It’s hard to see Georgia voting left of the generic ballot in 2022. Possible in 2024 though.

For example, If generic ballot ends up being R+3 (RCP aggregate is R+3.7 currently), I have a hard time seeing Georgia being left of R+2 this soon. That’s a 5-pt trend left from 2020.

I don't think it's that hard to believe. Georgia has been pretty consistently immune to midterm R trends in recent years.

That’s plausible, but a D+6 result in a hypothetical R+3 year would contradict the “immunity to waves argument”. To be immune to a wave, Georgia would have to be more or less identical to 2020, which was my point about him being favored but not by 6.

It could be immune to a wave, but it wouldn't be immune to its own trend. I don't believe the +6 margin either, I'm just saying that Georgia will likely be to the left of the nation, potentially by quite a lot.

[TodayJunior]

I think Warnock is favored, but not by nearly this much, so I can’t say he’s not beatable. It’s hard to see Georgia voting left of the generic ballot in 2022. Possible in 2024 though.

For example, If generic ballot ends up being R+3 (RCP aggregate is R+3.7 currently), I have a hard time seeing Georgia being left of R+2 this soon. That’s a 5-pt trend left from 2020.

I don't think it's that hard to believe. Georgia has been pretty consistently immune to midterm R trends in recent years.

That’s plausible, but a D+6 result in a hypothetical R+3 year would contradict the “immunity to waves argument”. To be immune to a wave, Georgia would have to be more or less identical to 2020, which was my point about him being favored but not by 6.

It could be immune to a wave, but it wouldn't be immune to its own trend. I don't believe the +6 margin either, I'm just saying that Georgia will likely be to the left of the nation, potentially by quite a lot.

To add more context, The net approval/disapproval of Biden on 11/2 was -10, and the gop took Virginia by 2, effectively making VA D+8, so there’s a limit to immunity