Election 2018 Open Thread - Part 1

[Thatkat04]

Regardless of whether she actually pulls it out in the end or not, I think it's fair to say that Sinema's campaign was an embarrassing failure.

Muh Blue Dog. Muh vote against Chuck Schumer.

If she pulls it out, she'd be the first democrat senator elected to Arizona in 30 years. I'm not sure how you can call that an embarrassing failure.

[Ben.]

Can someone who is smarter than me tell me that if these ballot counts are accurate, what are the chances of a last minute dem takeover in AZ?

Remaining ballots:
Maricopa 475-500k
Approximate split of outstanding Maricopa ballots:
300k - mailed in or received by post office on election day
200k - "late earlies" dropped off at the polls + provisionals.
Pima 80 to 100k
Pinal 40k

This is according to the twitter feeds of @robodellaz and @Garrett_Archer

Haven't chedked back at the SoS site, but Maricopa was a narrow Sinema edge, Pima was 60/40 Sinema and Pinal was 60/40 McSally.

Given there are a whole load more votes in Maricopa, the Democrats probably need to maintain a clear edge there, push their advantage in Pima and prevent a McSally blow out in Pinal.

I have no idea if any of that is possible or if it would make up the 16,000 vote shortfall, but shouldn't the 'late earlies' lean Dem?

Another thing to note, there are no outstanding rural counties where McSally was running up big margins.

If these are all the ballots left, and the splits exactly match the counted voted in each county, it won't be quite enough for Sinema; she'd lose by about 4k.  They'd need to be like 0.5%-1% more pro-Democratic than the counted vote to put her over the top.

I mean, its entirely possible they will be.

Dems probably need to bank on a trend within the 'late earlies' similar to what we're seeing in FL.

One thing that might mean the 'late earlies' in AZ are less Dem friendly, is that the early vote in AZ is more established and traditionally more Republican.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

The county map of CA-Sen seems like the most definitive refutation of the rational choice model of proximity voting I've ever seen.

[J. J.]

So it would be better to say "we don't hate Trump, just what he does?"

Hating what his policies are, yes. 

I think it is fine to criticize his policies (and I'll join in with that on somethings). 

It it not just Trump.  I saw this with Menendez.

[user12345]

NYT has finally called MN-1 for Hagedorn.

[Sestak]

Why did so many states take forever to count their votes? Maine has only counted 85% of their votes. Nevada didn't start counting until 1:00. A lot of other states took forever.

I think I heard that Nevada was waiting for everyone to be finished voting.

Nevada was having reporting issues, I think. We were expecting the EV numbers to come in all at once and a lot sooner than they did.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Apparently Steve Knight called Katie Hill to concede CA-25.

https://twitter.com/newscourtney/status/1060267884381822976?s=21

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

If God created a crimson tsunami engulfing the whole Senate, why didn't he also make it devour Menendez?

[Gass3268]

Looks like Andy Kim is going to take the lead in NJ-03.

https://twitter.com/amysrosenberg/status/1060272129277652992

11-1 Democratic New Jersey activate!

[izixs]

If God created a crimson tsunami engulfing the whole Senate, why didn't he also make it devour Menendez?

Here's a solution. Elect a democrat as president. Have them appoint Menendez to be ambassador to say Laos or something. And then after he leaves the senate, fire him.

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

What happened to Richard Ojeda? I really thought he would win his race.

[Zaybay]

Looks like Andy Kim is going to take the lead in NJ-03.

https://twitter.com/amysrosenberg/status/1060272129277652992

11-1 Democratic New Jersey activate!

Nice!

[Anzeigenhauptmeister]

If God created a crimson tsunami engulfing the whole Senate, why didn't he also make it devour Menendez?

Here's a solution. Elect a democrat as president. Have them appoint Menendez to be ambassador to say Laos or something. And then after he leaves the senate, fire him.

Good idea! Why didn't Trump come up with such a plan?

[Gass3268]

What happened to Richard Ojeda? I really thought he would win his race.

West Virginia happened.

[RI]

Thailand would be more fitting than Laos.

[Chinggis]

What happened to Richard Ojeda? I really thought he would win his race.

I really wanted him to win, too, but West Virginia is gone.

[The Dowager Mod]

https://twitter.com/RyanCostello/status/1060222202212171776

Somebody's bitter. 

[Coldstream]

Why is UT-04 taking so long to count?

[Nyvin]

https://twitter.com/RyanCostello/status/1060222202212171776

Somebody's bitter. 

Man he always sounds like a whiny little brat.   He must've been spoiled as a child or something.

[InheritTheWind]

What happened to Richard Ojeda? I really thought he would win his race.

It's crazy to me that after all his hype, Ojeda ended up losing worse than the Democrat in WV-2 did.

[Virginiá]

Man he always sounds like a whiny little brat.   He must've been spoiled as a child or something.

Indeed. Costello also flipped out after the PASC redrew his district and literally called for their impeachment, calling the process "corrupt," completely ignoring how the entire reason Republicans (including himself) even had that many seats in PA for the past ~8 years was because of actual corruption (in the form of election rigging).

He can get bent as far as I am concerned.

[Tintrlvr]

Looks like Andy Kim is going to take the lead in NJ-03.

https://twitter.com/amysrosenberg/status/1060272129277652992

11-1 Democratic New Jersey activate!

I had also heard that all of the outstanding precincts in NJ-03 are in overwhelmingly black Willingboro, by far the most Democratic municipality in the district (and nearly in the state). Seems like Kim will win.

[ltomlinson31]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1060275411412750336?s=19

[Tintrlvr]

Can someone who is smarter than me tell me that if these ballot counts are accurate, what are the chances of a last minute dem takeover in AZ?

Remaining ballots:
Maricopa 475-500k
Approximate split of outstanding Maricopa ballots:
300k - mailed in or received by post office on election day
200k - "late earlies" dropped off at the polls + provisionals.
Pima 80 to 100k
Pinal 40k

This is according to the twitter feeds of @robodellaz and @Garrett_Archer

If these are correct and complete, I’d say Senator Sinema is a nailed-on certainty. Late absentees and earlies are very Dem in partisan ID.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/williamjordann/status/1060278628548837376