Brownback/Gregg vs. Clinton/Edwards

[JSojourner]

I would hope you are right.  But I don't see ANY southern state voting for the more hated of the two Clintons.  It's one reason I am so worried she might win the nomination.  If she runs against McCain, her loss will be of McGovernian proportions.  If she lucks out and gets a fundie opponent like Brownback or Huckabee, then they still win...but she at least keeps the traditional blue states.

[Democratic Hawk]

If Brownback can portray himself as the true standard bearer of conservatism in a crowded GOP field full of 'moderates', I dare say he'd do reasonably well. Not sure whether he can win the nomination, however, but it would be good for the Democrats if he did

Dave

[Smash255]

The Party base controls the Primary.

and the base did NOT choose Robertson, Keyes, etc....instead, the base chose Reagan40, Reagan40, Bush41, Bush41, Dole, Bush43, and Bush43.

And there is no indication whatsoever that the base will nominate someone that is unelectable in 2008.

The base is begging for a reason to nominate a heavy weight like McCain.  All he has to do is point to Roberts and Alito as his models for SCOTUS nominees (just as Bush used Scalia and Thomas), and the nomination is his.

the point wasn't if this base is going to vote for McCain or not in a Primary.  the point was that someone who doesn't have moderate support such as brownback could still win the Primary, especially when you have people like mcCain and Rudy who will split the moderate vote.  Brownback can win a Primary, and doesn't need the moderates in the Party to do so.  however, he absolutley can't win nationally, and is completley unelectable in a  General

[Democratic Hawk]

The Party base controls the Primary.

and the base did NOT choose Robertson, Keyes, etc....instead, the base chose Reagan40, Reagan40, Bush41, Bush41, Dole, Bush43, and Bush43.

And there is no indication whatsoever that the base will nominate someone that is unelectable in 2008.

The base is begging for a reason to nominate a heavy weight like McCain.  All he has to do is point to Roberts and Alito as his models for SCOTUS nominees (just as Bush used Scalia and Thomas), and the nomination is his.

the point wasn't if this base is going to vote for McCain or not in a Primary.  the point was that someone who doesn't have moderate support such as brownback could still win the Primary, especially when you have people like mcCain and Rudy who will split the moderate vote.  Brownback can win a Primary, and doesn't need the moderates in the Party to do so.  however, he absolutley can't win nationally, and is completley unelectable in a  General

Indeed, he may; however, I wouldn't count any chickens though. You never know pragmatism might be be the dish of the day for Republicans come 2008, while Democrats opt for some stock liberal

Liberal Democrat vs Moderate Republican and, more than likely, the Republican will win

... but I hope I'm wrong and it will be Moderate Democrat vs Conservative Republican. Bayh vs Brownback will do nicely

Dave

[Smash255]

I would hope you are right.  But I don't see ANY southern state voting for the more hated of the two Clintons.  It's one reason I am so worried she might win the nomination.  If she runs against McCain, her loss will be of McGovernian proportions.  If she lucks out and gets a fundie opponent like Brownback or Huckabee, then they still win...but she at least keeps the traditional blue states.

I think your oversetimating the anti Hillary feelings.  She is MUCH more electable than the Brownback fundie crowd.

[Democratic Hawk]

I would hope you are right.  But I don't see ANY southern state voting for the more hated of the two Clintons.  It's one reason I am so worried she might win the nomination.  If she runs against McCain, her loss will be of McGovernian proportions.  If she lucks out and gets a fundie opponent like Brownback or Huckabee, then they still win...but she at least keeps the traditional blue states.

I think your oversetimating the anti Hillary feelings.  She is MUCH more electable than the Brownback fundie crowd.

With Bayh in the top slot, flip Indiana . Surely, he would score a Bill Clinton type win over Brownback

Dave

[JSojourner]

[/quote]

I would hope you are right.  But I don't see ANY southern state voting for the more hated of the two Clintons.  It's one reason I am so worried she might win the nomination.  If she runs against McCain, her loss will be of McGovernian proportions.  If she lucks out and gets a fundie opponent like Brownback or Huckabee, then they still win...but she at least keeps the traditional blue states.
[/quote]

I think your oversetimating the anti Hillary feelings.  She is MUCH more electable than the Brownback fundie crowd.
[/quote]

I'll do my happy Democrat dance quite cheerfully if you prove me wrong.  Hell, I'll even send you a bottle of your favorite adult beverage! 

Here's hoping!

Jim
(Who genuinely LIKES Hillary, but thinks she just can't win or govern because of right wing hate.)

[Smash255]

I would hope you are right.  But I don't see ANY southern state voting for the more hated of the two Clintons.  It's one reason I am so worried she might win the nomination.  If she runs against McCain, her loss will be of McGovernian proportions.  If she lucks out and gets a fundie opponent like Brownback or Huckabee, then they still win...but she at least keeps the traditional blue states.
[/quote]

I think your oversetimating the anti Hillary feelings.  She is MUCH more electable than the Brownback fundie crowd.
[/quote]

I'll do my happy Democrat dance quite cheerfully if you prove me wrong.  Hell, I'll even send you a bottle of your favorite adult beverage! 

Here's hoping!

Jim
(Who genuinely LIKES Hillary, but thinks she just can't win or govern because of right wing hate.)
[/quote]

Right wingers aren't going to vote for her, and I agree she would likely lose against McCain (unless their is a strong conservative 3rd Party challenge).  However against McCain it would not be a Mogovernesque landslide.  Too much regional partisanship for something like that to happen again unless their is a nominee from either side that is way out there. McCain wanting more troops in iraq which is something the public clearly disagrees with could be a problem for him as Iraq is likely to still be a mess a year and a half from now.  And while the right wing might not vote for her, she winss moderates in a landslide against someone like Brownback.  Hillary isn't the best choice, but is MUCH more electable than some think.