Who wins Luzerne County?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Shapiro narrowly won it in 2020, when he only won statewide by about four points, he's set to win by a far larger margin. Valid question.

[Calthrina950]

Lean Shapiro, although I wouldn't be surprised if Mastriano still won it.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Likely Shapiro, considering that he's likely to win the election by high single digits.

[If my soul was made of stone]

Mastriano, but underwhelmingly: probably within five points. Berks is the only Trump 2020 county that I think Shapiro has a good shot at winning.

[Real Texan Politics]

I’m confident Mastriano wins Luzerne whether he wins statewide or not.

[Calthrina950]

Mastriano, but underwhelmingly: probably within five points. Berks is the only Trump 2020 county that I think Shapiro has a good shot at winning.

As of now, do you think Shapiro will win by double digits, or will Mastriano hold him to single digits?

[If my soul was made of stone]

Mastriano, but underwhelmingly: probably within five points. Berks is the only Trump 2020 county that I think Shapiro has a good shot at winning.

As of now, do you think Shapiro will win by double digits, or will Mastriano hold him to single digits?

Statewide? Mid-single digits.

[Calthrina950]

Mastriano, but underwhelmingly: probably within five points. Berks is the only Trump 2020 county that I think Shapiro has a good shot at winning.

As of now, do you think Shapiro will win by double digits, or will Mastriano hold him to single digits?

Statewide? Mid-single digits.

You must be expecting a hidden Republican vote then, not detected by the polls, as occurred in 2016 and 2020. If this is the case, and Shapiro only wins by mid-single digits, then Oz has a very good shot at winning.

[sting in the rafters]

Tilt R.

You must be expecting a hidden Republican vote then, not detected by the polls, as occurred in 2016 and 2020. If this is the case, and Shapiro only wins by mid-single digits, then Oz has a very good shot at winning.

"Gee, I wonder why we keep underestimating Pennsyltuckian support for right-wing authoritarian appeals!"

[Calthrina950]

Tilt R.

You must be expecting a hidden Republican vote then, not detected by the polls, as occurred in 2016 and 2020. If this is the case, and Shapiro only wins by mid-single digits, then Oz has a very good shot at winning.

"Gee, I wonder why we keep underestimating Pennsyltuckian support for right-wing authoritarian appeals!"

I'm not underestimating such support levels, and I've had a sneaking suspicion that Mastriano is going to outperform the polls, although he will still lose.

[ctherainbow]

Tilt R.

"Gee, I wonder why we keep underestimating Pennsyltuckian support for right-wing authoritarian appeals!"

Yiiiiiiiikes.  I understand that you shared this with somewhat humorous intent, but us rural Dems are out busting our asses and wading through snow banks during petition season for the electoral cause, while being repeatedly physically threatened, having our signs/homes shot at, being spit on at events, for yall to call our hometowns “nothing but woods, a bunch of Trump voters, and heroin”?  You should hear the sh**t the local Repubs say about Philadelphia, and yet we defend yall in conversations even though your ballot counters perennially count slower than my 4 year old nieces.

Maybe you could take a page out of Malcolm Kenyatta’s book; he’s been to Susquehanna County twice since the primary, making connections and building bridges.

Or, at least, could you tell me where I can apply to help count Philly ballots so it doesn’t take weeks?   

On topic:  I think Mastriano is likely to win Luzerne County by a very narrow margin, but I could see Shapiro narrowly winning it if he’s winning statewide by 6 or 7+.

[sting in the rafters]

Yiiiiiiiikes.  I understand that you shared this with somewhat humorous intent, but us rural Dems are out busting our asses and wading through snow banks during petition season for the electoral cause, while being repeatedly physically threatened, having our signs/homes shot at, being spit on at events, for yall to call our hometowns “nothing but woods, a bunch of Trump voters, and heroin”?  You should hear the sh**t the local Repubs say about Philadelphia, and yet we defend yall in conversations even though your ballot counters perennially count slower than my 4 year old nieces.

Maybe you could take a page out of Malcolm Kenyatta’s book; he’s been to Susquehanna County twice since the primary, making connections and building bridges.

Or, at least, could you tell me where I can apply to help count Philly ballots so it doesn’t take weeks?   

On topic:  I think Mastriano is likely to win Luzerne County by a very narrow margin, but I could see Shapiro narrowly winning it if he’s winning statewide by 6 or 7+.

1. Every morning I pray the Delaware watershed secedes from Pennsyltucky and establishes a 38th-parallel style JSA in Happy Valley for the purpose of mutual tailgating.
2. I spent 2 hours yesterday contacting my mom’s HOA about getting a broken water main fixed so you tell me who’s doing their part to help their community.
3. Plot twist: The GOP’s correct about PHIraq’s problems, they simply advocate the wrong solutions. I suggest you wear your locale’s ills on your sleeves as well and take solace in your kick-ass ski resorts/cool drive-in movie theaters.


Back to Luzerne, a Trump-voter plurality electorate in PA makes it Tilt R no matter Shapiro’s strength with ancestral Dems. If he carries Luzerne despite its party registration edge whittling from D+45,000 merely 10 years ago to now in the single digits then Rust Belt GOP turnout is significantly lower than expected. 

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Mastriano. If he's losing this, he's losing by double digits, which I don't think will quite happen

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Shapiro did actually and damn did people here underestimate his statewide margin.

[Mr. Smith]

Mastriano. If he's losing this, he's losing by double digits, which I don't think will quite happen

. It did...somehow

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Mastriano. If he's losing this, he's losing by double digits, which I don't think will quite happen

. It did...somehow

I don't know why this is surprising.

[sting in the rafters]

Mastriano. If he's losing this, he's losing by double digits, which I don't think will quite happen

. It did...somehow

I don't know why this is surprising.

The fact that it took a statewide environment where Shapiro held Mastriano <50% in Amish Country capital and ancestral Klan hotbed Lancaster for him to garner a mere plurality in Luzerne is quite #trendzare3real5me

[Adam Griffin]

Seems crazy that it was this weak for Shapiro given the overall margin statewide, but comparing its tilt to the state in 2020 vs 2022, I guess not that surprising.

Luzerne-2020: 15.55 points more R than the state
Luzerne-2022: 13.23 points more R than the state

[President Johnson]

Seems crazy that it was this weak for Shapiro given the overall margin statewide, but comparing its tilt to the state in 2020 vs 2022, I guess not that surprising.

Luzerne-2020: 15.55 points more R than the state
Luzerne-2022: 13.23 points more R than the state

Interesting. I guess Obama will remain the last Democratic presidential candidate to carry Luzerne in a long time.

[Schiff for Senate]

Tilt R.

"Gee, I wonder why we keep underestimating Pennsyltuckian support for right-wing authoritarian appeals!"

Yiiiiiiiikes.  I understand that you shared this with somewhat humorous intent, but us rural Dems are out busting our asses and wading through snow banks during petition season for the electoral cause, while being repeatedly physically threatened, having our signs/homes shot at, being spit on at events, for yall to call our hometowns “nothing but woods, a bunch of Trump voters, and heroin”?  You should hear the sh**t the local Repubs say about Philadelphia, and yet we defend yall in conversations even though your ballot counters perennially count slower than my 4 year old nieces.

Maybe you could take a page out of Malcolm Kenyatta’s book; he’s been to Susquehanna County twice since the primary, making connections and building bridges.

Or, at least, could you tell me where I can apply to help count Philly ballots so it doesn’t take weeks?    

On topic:  I think Mastriano is likely to win Luzerne County by a very narrow margin, but I could see Shapiro narrowly winning it if he’s winning statewide by 6 or 7+.

There's plenty right here on this forum. If you look at very old posts on here, there were multiple R-PA avatars who routinely dunked on Philadelphia (and D-PA/D-Philadelphia avatars who, conversely, attacked rural PA relentlessly, lol). Much more recently, "citizenq" (who sports an "L" avatar but who's a Republican - or a Fascist, really - in all but name) called Philadelphia a "garbage dump" in a post while he was butthurt about Fetterman winning.