Pennsylvania Voter Registration

[Keystone Phil]

I guess "as of now" is as of the last update a few months ago? It's terrible that we're under 40% and it's only going to get worse because of this primary. 37% maybe?

[Keystone Phil]

I guess "as of now" is as of the last update a few months ago? It's terrible that we're under 40% and it's only going to get worse because of this primary. 37% maybe?

as of now = as of yesterday

Eh, not as bad then, I guess.

[Keystone Phil]

http://www.phillyburbs.com/pb-dyn/news/111-03252008-1508474.html

You should really click the link as the comments section seems to illustrate some of the issues (not all, of course not) that drive county politics (ie view that the dems have ruined philadelphia, Harry Fawkes runs a GOP machine in the county and is satan's emissary etc).

Haha!

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Uh, I think this is the third time she's switched. She was a life long Republican who said "the Republican party left me" two years ago for her husband, then switched back to be a "Republican for Murphy" and now leaves the party again.

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Ha...we still have a lead in the Montco registration totals.

[Keystone Phil]

Republicans masquerading as Democrats??  Granted some might be and Davis does have to put his best face forward, but is anyone buying that load of crap??  The people who left he GOP to register Dem are not those masqueraing as Democrats who are really Republican that will vote Clinton in the Primaries to cause trouble since they want McCain and want to make things easier.  They are either Republicans who support Obama, or former Republicans who have said enough is enough with the GOP and decided to finally make the change towards the dems.

Some did switch for strategic purposes, Smash.

Davis had to say what he said but who cares? Thankfully, he won't be seeking re-election as party chair.

[Keystone Phil]

Yep, but the Bucks margin has dropped from 21k to just 9k if my math is right...

Very interesting.  That means that PA-08 finally has a Dem majority of registered voters since the portions of Philly and Montgomery in the district are very heavily Democratic. 

I'm about 90% sure that the Montco part is still Republican when it comes to registration and the parts of NE Philly that Murphy has aren't "very heavily" Democratic.

[Keystone Phil]

Yep, but the Bucks margin has dropped from 21k to just 9k if my math is right...

Very interesting.  That means that PA-08 finally has a Dem majority of registered voters since the portions of Philly and Montgomery in the district are very heavily Democratic. 

I'm about 90% sure that the Montco part is still Republican when it comes to registration and the parts of NE Philly that Murphy has aren't "very heavily" Democratic.

Oh come on, even Ginny Shrader took 55% in the Montco part in 2004.  You may be right about the NE Philly part though. 

Ok, and that still doesn't prove to me that the Dems have a registration advantage there. The Republicans out there are RINOs but still registered Republican.

That appears to be the case, but it seems kind of pointless as the 2002 redistricting actually raised the Gore % from 54% in the old PA-13 to 56% in the new district.  If they were trying to make it more winnable they would have added Republican parts of Berks or Chester, not Democratic NE Philly. 

PA 13 was made the way it was by the GOP State House. NE Philly was added because then Speaker John Perzel was from the area that was added to the district. He thought we could win it and we came close in 2002. The Dems definitley have the voter registration advantage but they do vote Republican for various offices and they aren't your typical SE PA Dems; these folks are Reagan Democrats.

[Keystone Phil]

[Keystone Phil]

aww yeah

He's still going to lose big so it's not that amazing for you guys. 

[Keystone Phil]

It has finally happened. As of yesterday, Montgomery county, PA is now officially a Democratic county - http://www.kyw1060.com/Montco-Swings-from-Red-to-Blue-For-This-Primary/1950555


Oh, and Centre county (home of Penn State's main campus) has made the switch, too.

[Keystone Phil]

It has finally happened. As of yesterday, Montgomery county, PA is now officially a Democratic county - http://www.kyw1060.com/Montco-Swings-from-Red-to-Blue-For-This-Primary/1950555


Oh, and Centre county (home of Penn State's main campus) has made the switch, too.

This probably means Democrats are now at more than 50% statewide ...

Eh, we'll get some people back so I'm expecting the number to stay at about 50% for awhile.

[Keystone Phil]

It has finally happened. As of yesterday, Montgomery county, PA is now officially a Democratic county - http://www.kyw1060.com/Montco-Swings-from-Red-to-Blue-For-This-Primary/1950555


Oh, and Centre county (home of Penn State's main campus) has made the switch, too.

I also heard Bucks county now made the switch as well.  I bet Patrick Murphy is smiling. 

Where did you hear that because I haven't heard it.

[Keystone Phil]

Wow. To lose the lead in Montco was one thing but Bucks? Wow.

[Keystone Phil]

I almost wonder if the democrats would be better off letting the GOP get more powerful in Philly (ala NYC), so that there isn't one party to blame when the city, predictably, turns into $hit.

Uh, thanks. 

Dems here don't need to worry about being blamed and losing elections. See Mayoral race 2003. Apply that to basically every other problem this city may face.

[Keystone Phil]

I do think Michael Nutter's election won't put the Dems, especially Obama in such as bad light in places like NE or South Philly where Hillary dominated for obvious reasons. 

Nutter doesn't do that but other situations in the area don't help the already explosive racial tensions.

[Keystone Phil]

I do think Michael Nutter's election won't put the Dems, especially Obama in such as bad light in places like NE or South Philly where Hillary dominated for obvious reasons.

Nutter doesn't do that but other situations in the area don't help the already explosive racial tensions.

Well, the Skerski shooting didn't help Raj as much as I thought it would.  I know.. I know, I'm implying race in that but still.

And you're applying that to a complete joke candidate who had no qualms running a complete joke campaign.

[Keystone Phil]

Closed primary and a lot of folks wanted to vote for Clinton, but about a 150,000 voter gain for the Democrats.

Still doesn't bode well for the GOP.  One thing I noticed in the Northeast- not as many lawn signs for either side, but a lot of Obama signs once I head towards Montco.  I have a feeling turnout will simply be lower in NE Philly.  As of now I'm calling for the GOP to only win the 64th Ward and even that's narrow.

McCain has a clear advantage with signs in the NE (at least in the Far NE). I've seen a grand total of two Obama - Biden signs. Two.

[Keystone Phil]

Closed primary and a lot of folks wanted to vote for Clinton, but about a 150,000 voter gain for the Democrats.

Still doesn't bode well for the GOP.  One thing I noticed in the Northeast- not as many lawn signs for either side, but a lot of Obama signs once I head towards Montco.  I have a feeling turnout will simply be lower in NE Philly.  As of now I'm calling for the GOP to only win the 64th Ward and even that's narrow.

McCain has a clear advantage with signs in the NE (at least in the Far NE). I've seen a grand total of two Obama - Biden signs. Two.

I noticed a slight pickup in signs.  Then again I've seen more Obama signs in Mayfair of all places, but not outdoing McCain.  Then again in 2004, the Dems looked doomed if you would drive on Ryan Ave between Frankford and Rowland.  Not so much now.  I even noticed Raj beating Schwartz in 2006 on that logic.  Do lawn signs mean much? 

Usually signs don't mean much but this year is different. I've never seen this type of enthusiasm. The demands for the McCain - Palin signs are unreal and we're not just talking about them appearing in the typical GOP stronghold that you mentioned. They're everywhere.

[Keystone Phil]

Montco was actually one of his best counties in the state.

In all fairness, that's not saying much. He was expected to win (and fairly easily, too) but he didn't.

That being said, Montco won't be a problem for Obama.

[Keystone Phil]

In response to this...

I noticed a slight pickup in signs.  Then again I've seen more Obama signs in Mayfair of all places, but not outdoing McCain.  Then again in 2004, the Dems looked doomed if you would drive on Ryan Ave between Frankford and Rowland.  Not so much now.  I even noticed Raj beating Schwartz in 2006 on that logic.  Do lawn signs mean much? 

I had to go down to McCain HQs today to pick up some literature/door knockers. McCain is totally destroying Obama in the swing neighborhoods around the office (in Mayfair). These areas may have a more Republican lean than most neighborhoods in the NE but they haven't been like this for a Republican Presidential candidate in quite some time. McCain is going to win the 55th ward. There's little doubt in my mind about that. That's where their major focus is in the NE.

[Keystone Phil]

Even more good news...

I found out that a bunch of local Democratic committeepeople will be pushing McCain and want to volunteer for door to door as soon as possible, directly undermining the wishes of their ward leader (who is at least nominally for Obama).

[Keystone Phil]

Even more good news...

I found out that a bunch of local Democratic committeepeople will be pushing McCain and want to volunteer for door to door as soon as possible, directly undermining the wishes of their ward leader (who is at least nominally for Obama).

I drive through a very Republican part of Mayfair frequently and don't see too many McCain signs up.  There might be another part I'm missing here.  How do you explain the polls though?  Can Obama win without Northeast Philly this time?  I always knew it would be a matter of time before the Philly suburbs became more liberal and Democratic than the NE.  This maybe the beginning and is coming sooner than I thought for obvious reasons (see my bottom quote for a hint).  I have to concede the fact I've seen more Obama signs in the suburbs than in the NE.

Obama must be totally demolishing McCain in the suburbs because he's not strong in the NE.

[Keystone Phil]

but don't you think it's sad McCain is getting some votes based on race?

Yes and I've said so several times (for the record).

 

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Absolutely

[Keystone Phil]

but don't you think it's sad McCain is getting some votes based on race?

Yes and I've said so several times (for the record).

 

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Absolutely

That said, do you know of the registration numbers out of the Northeast?  I get the sense that  there will be more of a Bradley-Wilder effect east of the Boulevard and in white blue collar neighborhoods "in transition" if you know what I mean.  Overall, I think Obama will lose a substantial portion of voters in the Northeast, BUT it won't be anywhere near as bad as Street-Katz.  I think he'll still pull off some of the more liberal areas, apartment complexes, and  will have decent union support giving him a narrow win in the Wards north of the Frankford Creek cumulatively.  Fox Chase (I'm seeing early signs here) and Mayfair could be ugly for us though. 

Registration breakdown? Not sure.

It's going to be bad for Obama in a lot of areas east of the Boulevard (not just Mayfair).

[Keystone Phil]

East of Frankford Ave in some of the heavily Dem areas, I haven't seen too much support for either side.  I'm sure there are other areas as well.  I heard Obama is going to make a few campaign stops here if that says anything.  Again, if Obama gets more support in other parts of the city and the suburbs and ultimately wins the state, it's all that counts.  I know it used to be if NE Philly was going GOP, the state was.  Remember, Dem registration citywide is now 6-1.  There will still be a lot of union support for Obama and you have a lot of younger voters living in apartments in the NE who might have voted for Katz, but will definitely vote Obama.  I also have a feeling there will be lower turnout in the NE from 2004- don't want a black man, don't want Bush III. 

East of Frankford is tricky. We have some housing projects and more blacks moving into the lower parts of the NE. That being said, some of the white areas are pretty racist.

Obama stopped at the Mayfair Diner today. I don't know how great of a move that was. I think it actually helped motivate McCain voters (see my comments in my seperate thread on the 2008 board).

There may be some very low turnout in the NE but if there isn't, Obama is going to suffer.

[Keystone Phil]

East of Frankford Ave in some of the heavily Dem areas, I haven't seen too much support for either side.  I'm sure there are other areas as well.  I heard Obama is going to make a few campaign stops here if that says anything.  Again, if Obama gets more support in other parts of the city and the suburbs and ultimately wins the state, it's all that counts.  I know it used to be if NE Philly was going GOP, the state was.  Remember, Dem registration citywide is now 6-1.  There will still be a lot of union support for Obama and you have a lot of younger voters living in apartments in the NE who might have voted for Katz, but will definitely vote Obama.  I also have a feeling there will be lower turnout in the NE from 2004- don't want a black man, don't want Bush III. 

East of Frankford is tricky. We have some housing projects and more blacks moving into the lower parts of the NE. That being said, some of the white areas are pretty racist.

Obama stopped at the Mayfair Diner today. I don't know how great of a move that was. I think it actually helped motivate McCain voters (see my comments in my seperate thread on the 2008 board).

There may be some very low turnout in the NE but if there isn't, Obama is going to suffer.

At the end of the day, which will win- The Economy or Race?  That's what Northeast Philly boils down to.

If McCain catches a break with this economic news for a week or so before the election, I think he'll be in amazing shape up here. Even with the bad economic news, the energy for McCain is awesome. I just think that there's too much of a disconnect between most white voters up here and Obama. It's not the same as the relationship between voters here and Nutter.