Who'll win the Milwaukee suburbs?

[NOVA Green]

I think WOW will trend to Clinton actually - they're very conservative but they're not Trumpian. I expect a decline in turnout.

Won't the Milwaukee unrest change that a little?

Doubt it.... this is a blip on the radar.

A few hundred people in a rough neighborhood set a cop car on fire, and burn down a few local businesses after a cop shooting, where we still don't really know many details.

WOW lives a world apart from the City, but still like many MidWest Metro areas, at this point they are completely unaffected, and plus this isn't anything like the '67 urban unrest.

Neither isn't anything like real urban unrest in Milwaukee in the late 1800s when National Guard troops murdered (7) as part of a "shoot to kill" policy during a massive strike in the city...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bay_View_massacre

[NOVA Green]

Depends on what you classify as "the Milwaukee suburbs". If you're excluding the city proper from that, then it's likely a Trump win. Look at 2008, which was an 8-point McCain victory:



Even if you use this definition and include Sheboygan and Walworth in that, the margin doesn't change.

Including Milwaukee city proper results in a 10-point Obama win in 2008, so it's safe to say that regardless of your definition, there's probably a likely winner: if you include the city, Clinton definitely wins. If you don't, then Trump probably still pulls out a victory even with the backlash.

Nice.... President Griffin!

You pulled that from GIS and state precinct results I'm assuming?