The Mikado
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Posts: 21,809
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« Reply #1 on: December 07, 2012, 09:20:53 PM » |
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Texas will eventually become more competitive, but it's a far more long-term prospect than most people assume. Much of the blame for that is that the Texas Democrats are in no position to capitalize on changing demographics: the party has a serious dearth of serious statewide candidates, it has a very small number of state legislators to use as a bench for up and comers, and the party itself is effectively owned by old white trial lawyers who are only Democrats because the GOP is the party of tort reform. In addition, the demographic shifts aren't as reflected in voting patterns as one might assume because a large number of Texas Hispanics are either A. not U.S. citizens, or B. under 18. Furthermore, especially among older Hispanics and first generation immigrants from Mexico, Mexico's rather depressing political culture engenders a degree of skepticism about voting: for many decades, Mexico's one-party PRI regime made it so that voting was something that would, at best, serve as an opportunity to receive a bribe and at worst would only serve to bring you to the attention of the authorities. Obviously, that's begun to change in the last decade or so, and younger Hispanics born in the US are much more friendly to the voting system, but especially in the Valley, low voter turnout is the rule, not the exception.
Basically, yes, I think Texas is going to get closer, but it's going to be a much, much slower process than many think.
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