Alabama Megathread 4: A New Hope

[GeorgiaModerate]

According to the AL SoS, voter turnout was just a notch over 40%.

http://www2.alabamavotes.gov/electionNight/statewideResultsByContest.aspx?ecode=1000915

And here's what made the difference:

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As was said a million times on these threads...turnout was the key.

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/davidfrum/status/940818742958870528

Nathan Mathis can tell himself tonight, "This time, it did avail."

[Sestak]

We just got the most important Demographic breakdown from FOX:

Alabama fans: Moore +6
Auburn fans: Jones +2
Non-football fans: Jones +30

What percentage of voters are non-football fans? Isn't that about like polling Jewish voters in Alabama?

I got the full question (FOX is now doing an alternative to traditional exit polling, so its numbers are sometimes different from the exit poll- the most notable was that it suggested a somewhat bigger age gap than the exit polls did):

Alabama fans (47%): Moore 52-46
Auburn fans (19%): Jones 50-48
Fans of both (12%): Moore 52-47
Fans of neither (21%): Jones 60-39

You know, I thought Roy Moore was the most disgusting thing in Alabama. But 12% are fans of BOTH?!?!?!

[GeorgiaModerate]

We just got the most important Demographic breakdown from FOX:

Alabama fans: Moore +6
Auburn fans: Jones +2
Non-football fans: Jones +30

What percentage of voters are non-football fans? Isn't that about like polling Jewish voters in Alabama?

I got the full question (FOX is now doing an alternative to traditional exit polling, so its numbers are sometimes different from the exit poll- the most notable was that it suggested a somewhat bigger age gap than the exit polls did):

Alabama fans (47%): Moore 52-46
Auburn fans (19%): Jones 50-48
Fans of both (12%): Moore 52-47
Fans of neither (21%): Jones 60-39

You know, I thought Roy Moore was the most disgusting thing in Alabama. But 12% are fans of BOTH?!?!?!

I knew a couple of people in Shelby County who that would fit.  One of their kids went to Alabama, the other to Auburn, so they rooted for both (and proclaimed neutrality in the Iron Bowl, although I have a feeling they secretly favored Bama).

[junior chįmp]

Molestin' Moore didn't know what he was up against:

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[Doimper]

Does anyone have that article about Arlen Specter "endorsing" Doug Jones for Senate bookmarked? I found it linked here recently, but can't remember where.

edit: never mind, found it

[Crumpets]

Here's the swing map from the 2016 presidential election:

[GeorgiaModerate]

Here's the swing map from the 2016 presidential election:

That's really rather remarkable.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

The smallest swinging County in the state was the only Hillary Clinton 80%+ county in the state.

[Dr. Arch]

The smallest swinging County in the state was the only Hillary Clinton 80%+ county in the state.

Dead-cat bounce effect

[jman123]

Why did Jones make inroads in heavily white areas of Alabama. In Jackson County in mountainous NE part of state he got 30% Hillary got 17%. Franklin county he got 29% Hillary got 18%. This is deeply conservative Alabama.

[Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon]

Because the republicans ran a pedophile. Apparently the country has learned from its failure to care about Access Hollywood.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Why did Jones make inroads in heavily white areas of Alabama. In Jackson County in mountainous NE part of state he got 30% Hillary got 17%. Franklin county he got 29% Hillary got 18%. This is deeply conservative Alabama.

Because that's about what you'd expect when you go from a 28% Republican win to a 1.5% Democratic win.

[Crumpets]

Part of it just comes down to turnout. Sure Jones probably convinced a few Republicans to fill in the bubble next to his name, but if you look at the raw vote totals, you consistently see Jones coming reasonably close to Clinton's numbers in these counties while Moore saw a huge drop-off from Trump's numbers. And as nice as it is to make inroads with voters from the other party, it's practically a lot easier to just have a massive enthusiasm gap between the party bases.

[America's Sweetheart ❤/𝕿𝖍𝖊 𝕭𝖔𝖔𝖙𝖞 𝖂𝖆𝖗𝖗𝖎𝖔𝖗]

Here's the swing map from the 2016 presidential election:

That's really rather remarkable.

Isn't it what you'd expect though, when you go from R+28 to D+1.5?

[Anna Komnene]

I don't know why he made inroads there, but Democrats basically went from having no campaign whatsoever in Alabama for years to having a massive, well funded, volunteer-stocked campaign. Maybe when the Republican is disliked enough and the Democrat actually bothers to campaign and ask Alabamians for their votes, they're more open to actually doing it than people give them credit for.

[libertpaulian]

Jim Hood, Stacey Evans, Gwen Graham, Karl Dean, Jeff Jackson, and Phil Bredesen must be smiling right now.

[Nyvin]

Rachel Maddow used Miles' map of Alabama's congressional districts in the Senate election

[Sestak]

I just realized that we have 2 star wars-themed thread names on this board...

[100% pro-life no matter what]

Not sure if this is real or not, but a couple of their other articles look like they aren't satire:

Nick Saban came in 3rd
http://dailysnark.com/nick-saban-came-3rd-place-alabama-senate-election-20k-votes/

[Holmes]

Not sure if this is real or not, but a couple of their other articles look like they aren't satire:

Nick Saban came in 3rd
http://dailysnark.com/nick-saban-came-3rd-place-alabama-senate-election-20k-votes/

Really don't think it's real. Saban did not get 96% of the write-in vote?

[NOVA Green]

We just got the most important Demographic breakdown from FOX:

Alabama fans: Moore +6
Auburn fans: Jones +2
Non-football fans: Jones +30

What percentage of voters are non-football fans? Isn't that about like polling Jewish voters in Alabama?

I got the full question (FOX is now doing an alternative to traditional exit polling, so its numbers are sometimes different from the exit poll- the most notable was that it suggested a somewhat bigger age gap than the exit polls did):

Alabama fans (47%): Moore 52-46
Auburn fans (19%): Jones 50-48
Fans of both (12%): Moore 52-47
Fans of neither (21%): Jones 60-39

So it would be fans of UAB, South Alabama, Troy, Alabama A&M, Samford, or even those who favor Tennessee, Georgia, Florida, etc., rather than those who completely deny the existence of Football.

Yes, I probably messed up earlier.  That could reflect both transplants and non-football fans being more liberal than the rest of the state.

Also worth mentioning there are a decent chunk of Americans that aren't that crazy about College Football, but huge fans of Pro-Football....

Even in Football crazy Alabama, there going to be a decent chunk of folks who just casually follow the 'Ball games of the two big local teams, but not enough to consider themselves "fans"....

Also, it's worth noting that there are three other Division 1-A College Football teams from Alabama, which is actually remarkable for such a relatively low population State:

University of Alabama- Birmingham
University of South Alabama- Mobile
Troy University

The former two College Campus precincts voted heavily Democratic in 2016, and likely more working and Middle-Class with a larger African-American population than the traditional "White Elitist" schools like University of Alabama- Tuscaloosa and Auburn....

There's a whole separate thread I've been working on for Division 1-A Football starting with results by City, and then now moving down into results by Campus precincts for 2016, and hopefully will be able to hit 2012 results before too long....

I almost thought of fast-tracking Alabama Precinct results by Campus just for the 2017 Special US Senate Election, but still working back through methodically and haven't hit the SEC, Sunbelt, or US-Conf West yet...

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=273504.175

[Ye We Can]

So I cruised /pol/ on the aftermath of the election.  I wont post any direct links or images, but here's a couple of funny takes:

"So what went wrong /pol/? How did the Democrats win?"
First post:

"Republicans nominated a guy who wanted to bring back slavery.  This seemingly did not play well with the Blacks."

Another thread:

"Of course they stayed the order to not destroy the ballots. This one smells rigged to me."
And a reply:

"Ah yes, because the (((ALABAMA SUPREME COURT))) is in on the vast liebural conspiracy."

[Devout Centrist]

My opinion of Kushner has gone way up.

You know what else has gone up?

The number of Roy Moore's accusers

You know what else has gone up?

His polling numbers! And Dems can only cry about it! You got nothing. You lose. Trump. Karen Handel. The immigration ban. The embassy. And AL-Sen. It is all happening.

Roy Moore is soaring in the polls.

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Great honer friends!

[Dr. Arch]

My opinion of Kushner has gone way up.

You know what else has gone up?

The number of Roy Moore's accusers

You know what else has gone up?

His polling numbers! And Dems can only cry about it! You got nothing. You lose. Trump. Karen Handel. The immigration ban. The embassy. And AL-Sen. It is all happening.

Roy Moore is soaring in the polls.

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Great honer friends!

Seeing all these posts from the pedophile apologists is bringing a smile to my face.

10/10! I guess Alabama is the next NYC.