Census Population Estimates 2020-29

[Sol]

Why is East TN so different to the rest of Appalachia ?

Well, it's not different from WNC or NGA.  Coal mining really barely extended into TN.  Also I-81 is a major corridor.

Shenandoah Valley is similar as well--all of these areas are near to big metro areas so they're the logical place for summer houses and tourists, and they never were industrial.

[Sol]

Idaho with three districts will work so much better anyway.

The Coeur D'Alene district will probably still have to take in a bit of the Boise area unfortunately, at least under a distribution like current numbers.

[Sol]

Idaho with three districts will work so much better anyway.

The Coeur D'Alene district will probably still have to take in a bit of the Boise area unfortunately, at least under a distribution like current numbers.

Keep in mind that Idaho has an independent commission in the state constitution.  If the natural population #'s favor an all-Boise district, we can expect to get one.

Yeah, but my point is that the remainder of the Boise area will have to go with the Panhandle:



That still sucks, since places like Caldwell or Mountain Home are pretty remote from the north.

[Sol]

A more Democratic friendly commission could also draw a Pine Bluff-Little Rock district or combine both of those with the Delta.

[Sol]

The Delta is also getting a lot whiter and redder very fast, so that seat might not even be sustainable anyways.

IMO there's kind of a oft-repeated idea that rural Black Belt areas are getting whiter--that may be true in some places, but the Arkansas Delta, at least as defined by wikipedia, got more Black and much less whiter between 2010 and 2020.

[Sol]

https://www.census.gov/library/visualizations/2023/comm/percent-change-in-county-population.html

Some western states, the southern Atlantic coast area, and the Texas triangle are the three areas still having good growth,  everything else is either close to stagnant or declining.

Surprising to see all NH counties have grown in population last year.

What is going on in the Ozarks???

Are you looking at the two counties in NW AR? Benton is a business hub (Walmart HQ) that has consciously invested in recreational infrastructure like extensive mountain biking trails that run through some urban/semi-urban areas for easy access. Madison had ~16K in the 2020 census so that might be a statistical blip, but also its position situates it well for outdoors recreation like biking and access to the Buffalo National Waterway. Combine that with cheap COL + surge in remote work possibilities and my only surprise is that Washington County (Fayetteville + University of Arkansas) isn't dark green.

No I'm surprised there is such consistent positive growth across Southern Missouri and Northern Arkansas given that most rural regions continue to see declines.

I assume it's not so different from the robust growth in Middle TN and Piedmont NC--i.e. rural areas getting some of the benefits of nearby, relatively fast growing cities. Plus the Ozarks and Ouachitas are attractive for tourism related reasons, and there is a surprisingly robust meatpacking sector in parts of SW MO and NW AR.

In any case, as Xahar said these estimates are likely bunkum, so not much use in overanalyzing.