2020 Absentee/Early Voting thread

[kph14]

Texas has also started to report their earlier ballots. On Oct 13, in-person early voting is going to start.

https://earlyvoting.texas-election.com/Elections/

[Non Swing Voter]

Just a few minutes later and it's up to 4.45 million votes now:

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/index.html

Looks like the added numbers are mostly from Michigan.

Wisconsin just added over 100,000 votes in the new update. Dane is now at over 50% requested and 50% returned.

Judging by those insane Dane #s, that modeling for Wisconsin appears to be severely wrong.

Not just Dane, but the entire state. Almost the entirety of returned votes are from urban areas or Democrat-friendly enclaves, even in the more conservative parts of the state.

How can you tell they are coming from urban areas?  Are you basing this off the county results or some more specific precinct level data within counties?

We got town/municipality data last night. Go back a few pages and there is a map.

Thanks.

[GP270watch]

Texas has also started to report their earlier ballots. On Oct 13, in-person early voting is going to start.

https://earlyvoting.texas-election.com/Elections/

So many counties...

[Storr]

Texas has also started to report their earlier ballots. On Oct 13, in-person early voting is going to start.

https://earlyvoting.texas-election.com/Elections/

So many counties...

Nothing from the two most populous, Harris and Dallas, yet.

[Non Swing Voter]

https://twitter.com/davebjerke/status/1313595727738798081

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Texas has also started to report their earlier ballots. On Oct 13, in-person early voting is going to start.

https://earlyvoting.texas-election.com/Elections/

So many counties...

Nothing from the two most populous, Harris and Dallas, yet.

Dallas is reporting on the county website, and my name is among those 12k ish hehe

[Tintrlvr]

It feels bizarre that they publicly publish the names and addresses of people who have voted in such an easily accessible format

[Storr]

It feels bizarre that they publicly publish the names and addresses of people who have voted in such an easily accessible format

At least in NC, you can lookup anyone and find their voter registration (which shows voting history, party affiliation, voting location, and even address).

Edit: I just looked up Thom Tillis, and unsurprisingly (he was in sales at IBM before running for public office) he lives in a $1.5 million lakefront house. Also, Tillis' son (who is also named Thomas because why not?) after only voting in Republican primaries previously evidently voted in this year's Democratic Primary?!?

[Flo 2.0]

It feels bizarre that they publicly publish the names and addresses of people who have voted in such an easily accessible format

At least in NC, you can lookup anyone and find their voter registration (which shows voting history, party affiliation, voting location, and even address).

Edit: I just looked up Thom Tillis, and unsurprisingly (he was in sales at IBM before running for public office) he lives in a $1.5 million lakefront house. Also, Tillis' son (who is also named Thomas because why not?) after only voting in Republican primaries previously evidently voted in this year's Democratic Primary?!?

we love some family drama

[Non Swing Voter]

It feels bizarre that they publicly publish the names and addresses of people who have voted in such an easily accessible format

At least in NC, you can lookup anyone and find their voter registration (which shows voting history, party affiliation, voting location, and even address).

Edit: I just looked up Thom Tillis, and unsurprisingly (he was in sales at IBM before running for public office) he lives in a $1.5 million lakefront house. Also, Tillis' son (who is also named Thomas because why not?) after only voting in Republican primaries previously evidently voted in this year's Democratic Primary?!?

maybe he tried to vote for the weakest Democratic challenger to run against his Dad?

[Tender Branson]

Horrible to see such long lines for early voting in OH and elsewhere.

Well, not horrible that they want to vote, but horrible that it seems there’s only one precinct for tens of thousands of early voters.

Many counties in the US have virtually ZERO infrastructure in place to conduct elections properly.

Horrific.

How many people are standing in line for hours before they are discouraged and leave ?

[Ferguson97]

It feels bizarre that they publicly publish the names and addresses of people who have voted in such an easily accessible format

I wish it wouldn’t be public information. It prevents DV survivors from registering without their abusers being able to find them.

[Stuart98]

It feels bizarre that they publicly publish the names and addresses of people who have voted in such an easily accessible format

I wish it wouldn’t be public information. It prevents DV survivors from registering without their abusers being able to find them.

Also makes it trivial to dox someone if you know their full name and the state they live in.

[The Mikado]

A lot of people are unaware that their voting history is basically publicly accessible information because of the phrase "secret ballot," but that only protects who you actually voted for, not whether or not you voted.

In Texas in particular, there's no partisan registration, but who needs it if someone can just look up your history and see you vote in the Democratic Primary every cycle?

I get polled all the time (about once a month during election years) and I think a lot of that comes down to my voting history. Stuff like voting in a Dallas mayoral race with 10% turnout probably puts me in a "Super-high-turnout-chance" list somewhere.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Campaigns are definitely looking at who's voted.  Shortly after we submitted our absentee ballot applications, we started getting postcards urging us to return our ballots as soon as possible and vote for a particular candidate.  Most of them were from Republicans, though, so I doubt the actual result was what they were hoping for.

[Non Swing Voter]

Horrible to see such long lines for early voting in OH and elsewhere.

Well, not horrible that they want to vote, but horrible that it seems there’s only one precinct for tens of thousands of early voters.

Many counties in the US have virtually ZERO infrastructure in place to conduct elections properly.

Horrific.

How many people are standing in line for hours before they are discouraged and leave ?

With respect to early voting, in some states they only have one place to vote open right now but will open more satellite offices as the election approaches.  That's the case in Fairfax County where I am now, which is why the lines are so lone, you have basically 4 voting booths in 1 location for a county  of like 1.2 million people.  But next week they're going to open more offices, so that's when a lot more people plan to vote.

[Penn_Quaker_Girl]

A lot of people are unaware that their voting history is basically publicly accessible information because of the phrase "secret ballot," but that only protects who you actually voted for, not whether or not you voted.

In Texas in particular, there's no partisan registration, but who needs it if someone can just look up your history and see you vote in the Democratic Primary every cycle?

I get polled all the time (about once a month during election years) and I think a lot of that comes down to my voting history. Stuff like voting in a Dallas mayoral race with 10% turnout probably puts me in a "Super-high-turnout-chance" list somewhere.

There are states such as Florida, New York, and New Jersey where someone can not only look up your name and DOB, but also your address and for which party you're registered -- and all it takes is having your first OR last name (that's not an exhaustive list -- North Carolina is on there, as well).  

[Non Swing Voter]

I think we are at the point where we are going to be getting 1 million+ new votes a day.  Wouldn't be surprised if it's up to 2 million+ a day next week.  This is a really bad time for Trump to be tanking in the polls.

[Non Swing Voter]

Also, looks like the D lead is about 230k now in Florida, still basically nothing from Miami but Orange came online.

Palm Beach at 120k ballots returned.  Is this a sign that elderly Democratic voters are the most engaged (given Trump's handling of the coronavirus)?

[wbrocks67]

Also, looks like the D lead is about 230k now in Florida, still basically nothing from Miami but Orange came online.

Palm Beach at 120k ballots returned.  Is this a sign that elderly Democratic voters are the most engaged (given Trump's handling of the coronavirus)?

Pretty incredible that the FL lead keeps getting bigger and bigger. I did not expect that.

[It’s so Joever]

Also, looks like the D lead is about 230k now in Florida, still basically nothing from Miami but Orange came online.

Palm Beach at 120k ballots returned.  Is this a sign that elderly Democratic voters are the most engaged (given Trump's handling of the coronavirus)?

Pretty incredible that the FL lead keeps getting bigger and bigger. I did not expect that.

Keep in mind that Miami-Dade is still ridiculously behind everyone else.

[wbrocks67]

Also, looks like the D lead is about 230k now in Florida, still basically nothing from Miami but Orange came online.

Palm Beach at 120k ballots returned.  Is this a sign that elderly Democratic voters are the most engaged (given Trump's handling of the coronavirus)?

Pretty incredible that the FL lead keeps getting bigger and bigger. I did not expect that.

Keep in mind that Miami-Dade is still ridiculously behind everyone else.

That makes the Dem margin even better tbh.

[Non Swing Voter]

Also, looks like the D lead is about 230k now in Florida, still basically nothing from Miami but Orange came online.

Palm Beach at 120k ballots returned.  Is this a sign that elderly Democratic voters are the most engaged (given Trump's handling of the coronavirus)?

Pretty incredible that the FL lead keeps getting bigger and bigger. I did not expect that.

Keep in mind that Miami-Dade is still ridiculously behind everyone else.

That makes the Dem margin even better tbh.

Florida Republicans are busy doing boat parades while Florida Democrats are busy voting.  I guess we'll see which strategy works in 4 weeks.

[Tintrlvr]

Also, looks like the D lead is about 230k now in Florida, still basically nothing from Miami but Orange came online.

Palm Beach at 120k ballots returned.  Is this a sign that elderly Democratic voters are the most engaged (given Trump's handling of the coronavirus)?

Pretty incredible that the FL lead keeps getting bigger and bigger. I did not expect that.

Is it getting bigger on a percentage basis? It should be getting bigger with regard to absolute figures, of course.

Historically, absentee ballots in Florida leaned Republican, so I wouldn't be surprised by a tendency to move towards the Democrats over time as the always-absentee voters (Republican-leaning) mostly vote right away while the new-absentee voters (strongly Democratic) take a bit more time to turn in their ballots. Plus I think some urban counties have been slower to report (and Dade isn't reporting at all yet).

[Non Swing Voter]

Also, looks like the D lead is about 230k now in Florida, still basically nothing from Miami but Orange came online.

Palm Beach at 120k ballots returned.  Is this a sign that elderly Democratic voters are the most engaged (given Trump's handling of the coronavirus)?

Pretty incredible that the FL lead keeps getting bigger and bigger. I did not expect that.

Is it getting bigger on a percentage basis? It should be getting bigger with regard to absolute figures, of course.

Historically, absentee ballots in Florida leaned Republican, so I wouldn't be surprised by a tendency to move towards the Democrats over time as the always-absentee voters (Republican-leaning) mostly vote right away while the new-absentee voters (strongly Democratic) take a bit more time to turn in their ballots. Plus I think some urban counties have been slower to report (and Dade isn't reporting at all yet).

I don't think it's getting bigger as a percentage.  It went from like 220k yesterday to 230k today despite a couple hundred thousand new votes.  The wild card is that Miami is still basically completely out though.