This election would basically result in a 1980-style Democratic blowout if it were held today, and I don’t think anyone ever denied that a seat like this could/would become competitive in an environment this favorable to Democrats. If you’re inclined to believe that Republicans can close the gap at least slightly before election day (i.e., a result closer to a 1992-type defeat rather than 1980), they can definitely still hold the seat, but literally no one is arguing that this isn’t bad news for Ernst. Also, broken clock and all, but this is a state where polling has underestimated Republican strength in recent elections, including Selzer's final IA-GOV 2018 poll which had Hubbell ahead by 2.
Needless to say, even a narrow Republican hold/close race in IA would point to a Democratic wave election, and the idea that Ernst is far more vulnerable than "stronger incumbents" like Perdue, Daines, or Cornyn is laughable.
We really need an AL-SEN poll, btw. I don’t buy that Jones is DOA, especially in this environment.
Oh c'mon, it's Alabama
