COVID-19 Megathread 5: The Trumps catch COVID-19

[Calthrina950]

I will say that I am greatly frustrated by the continued denialism and "downplaying" of this crisis by many in this country, particularly those who are among Trump's most ardent supporters. If Americans were taking this more seriously on a universal basis, we would be in a better situation then we are.

[Calthrina950]

Biggest overreaction ever.

I can think of another.

This is actually a pretty good analogy.  When the terrorist attacks happened on 9/11, it was pretty reasonable for us to enact a lot of new strict security measures, because we had very little knowledge of how much this initial wave represented an ongoing threat to our way of life.  But as time when on and it became apparent that terrorism was not a serious or common threat, we mostly failed to adjust our policies in light of new information.  We still have to take our shoes off and can’t take liquids on the plane despite not seeing any airplane related terrorism in almost two decades.

These serologic studies have the potential to give us real and essential information about the prevalence and fatality rates of the virus.  It would be shameful if we don’t use this information to adjust our policies.

It’s not a good analogy at all. Increased security didn’t exactly shut down the economy. Stupid analogy, actually.

I'm surprised that you have this view. One of the main arguments concerning airport security procedures, since 9/11, is that they infringe upon civil liberties. And one of the main arguments that have been made by opponents of the shutdowns has been that civil liberties have been infringed. That would seem to create a connection between the two situations.

[Calthrina950]

Latest studies show infection rates much higher, which means a much lower death rate.

I’ve been saying this from the very beginning. Biggest overreaction ever.

It seems weird to me that almost 50 thousand deaths in US so far are being written off as an overreaction.....

Yeah, interpreting the serologic study as proof we are “overreacting” is bizarre.

These studies suggest that far more people are going to get infected than either side of this debate has been willing to consider.  They also indicate that more people are going to die than previous estimateS.  It might be a lower IFR, but it’s still going to be more total deaths.

But they also indicate that our current reaction, while not an overreaction, might not be the right reaction.  Rather than trying to minimize infection, we may have to acknowledge that this is impossible any instead focus on mitigating the consequences of near universal infection.

Earlier, I asked whether or not coronavirus could end up infecting as many people as H1N1 did a decade ago (~60 million). With this new study, it seems likely that it will, and it could even surpass it. That is what is so alarming about this virus: the sheer number of asymptomatic and mildly symptomatic cases.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/NikkiHaley/status/1253325061265620994?s=20
Someone’s getting in on this for her ‘24 run.

The only running that Haley is likely to be doing within the next four years involves being chased by an angry mob.

What?

If Haley and McConnell get their way, there will be austerity riots.

Particularly the latter. I was absolutely disgusted when McConnell said that states should consider declaring bankruptcy. That only seems like it would exacerbate the economic troubles and further destabilize the market. Moreover, Republicans have paid disproportionate attention to small businesses, out of all the people and organizations needing assistance in this crisis. Now, small business is important, and needs a significant amount of assistance, but more aid ought to be directed to expand our testing apparatus, improve the inequities in our healthcare system, and provide firmer benefits guarantees for employees.

[Calthrina950]

I'm not sure if anyone noticed, but it was astonishing to me, in watching the news coverage of the vote on the coronavirus bill yesterday, to see members of Congress and their staff wearing masks. Even with mask-wearing, though, this country's partisan divides are obvious. Virtually all Democrats were wearing masks, while many Republicans-such as McCarthy, Scalise, Gohmert, and Jordan-were not doing so. Democratic Rep. Jim McGovern actually criticized Republicans for not adhering to CDC guidelines, since Congress is supposed to set an example for the rest of the country by doing so. I've seen anti-mask sentiments expressed by many on the right on comment boards. Some even believe that masks and gloves are meant as a control mechanism to subdue Americans, and that they are a tool of the left. Hence, they refuse to wear them.

[Calthrina950]

I'm not sure if anyone noticed, but it was astonishing to me, in watching the news coverage of the vote on the coronavirus bill yesterday, to see members of Congress and their staff wearing masks. Even with mask-wearing, though, this country's partisan divides are obvious. Virtually all Democrats were wearing masks, while many Republicans-such as McCarthy, Scalise, Gohmert, and Jordan-were not doing so. Democratic Rep. Jim McGovern actually criticized Republicans for not adhering to CDC guidelines, since Congress is supposed to set an example for the rest of the country by doing so. I've seen anti-mask sentiments expressed by many on the right on comment boards. Some even believe that masks and gloves are meant as a control mechanism to subdue Americans, and that they are a tool of the left. Hence, they refuse to wear them.

The WHO guidelines actually recommend against masks.

I'm aware of that, but the WHO's reputation isn't exactly stellar at the moment, and I've heard that they were considering changing those guidelines-though whether they actually do so remains to be seen. And as you've probably noticed (I'm assuming this is true in Kentucky as it is in Colorado), it seems that a majority of Americans are wearing masks in public now. I saw an ABC News poll from a week or two ago saying as much. According to that poll, 69% of Democrats and 47% of Republicans are wearing masks or face coverings in public. So there is a clear partisan divide on something as simple as that.

[Calthrina950]

At this rate, we'll hit 1,000,000 cases by Monday.

There are already over a million cases of coronavirus in the United States, and probably several million at this point, as the serology studies have indicated. However, why was there such a significant increase in the number of cases today? Coronavirus is on the verge of overtaking the Vietnam War in terms of the number of officially recorded casualties, and I don't think the White House's estimate of 60,000 is going to hold up.

[Calthrina950]

At this rate, we'll hit 1,000,000 cases by Monday.

There are already over a million cases of coronavirus in the United States, and probably several million at this point, as the serology studies have indicated. However, why was there such a significant increase in the number of cases today? Coronavirus is on the verge of overtaking the Vietnam War in terms of the number of officially recorded casualties, and I don't think the White House's estimate of 60,000 is going to hold up.

Yes. I update the post from the same source every day at around the same hour. That's the net increase from yesterday at 8:00PM CST.

And, just from active cases alone and assuming not a single additional case take place after today, we're looking at around 100,000 deaths already. In reality, we can be looking at least a couple hundred thousand.

If states start opening up again in the midst of this (I'm looking at you, GA, FL, and TX), we can start thinking of parts of a million. This is really serious.

Georgia's reopening has definitely been ill-advised, but Texas seems to be taking greater precautions, comparable to those here in Colorado. What framework do you think should be established for lifting shutdowns? As I've noted before, I don't think they can be sustained beyond June. Nevertheless, it is very likely that coronavirus approaches or even surpasses the casualty figures of either World War I (116,516) or World War II (407,000).

[Calthrina950]

At this rate, we'll hit 1,000,000 cases by Monday.

There are already over a million cases of coronavirus in the United States, and probably several million at this point, as the serology studies have indicated. However, why was there such a significant increase in the number of cases today? Coronavirus is on the verge of overtaking the Vietnam War in terms of the number of officially recorded casualties, and I don't think the White House's estimate of 60,000 is going to hold up.

Yes. I update the post from the same source every day at around the same hour. That's the net increase from yesterday at 8:00PM CST.

And, just from active cases alone and assuming not a single additional case take place after today, we're looking at around 100,000 deaths already. In reality, we can be looking at least a couple hundred thousand.

If states start opening up again in the midst of this (I'm looking at you, GA, FL, and TX), we can start thinking of parts of a million. This is really serious.

Georgia's reopening has definitely been ill-advised, but Texas seems to be taking greater precautions, comparable to those here in Colorado. What framework do you think should be established for lifting shutdowns? As I've noted before, I don't think they can be sustained beyond June. Nevertheless, it is very likely that coronavirus approaches or even surpasses the casualty figures of either World War I (116,516) or World War II (407,000).

I thought Colorado was also doing an (ill advised) early opening.

Not all of Colorado is, though. Denver, along with Boulder, Arapahoe, Jefferson, and Adams Counties, have extended their stay-at-home orders until May 8, which is nearly another two weeks after the statewide order that will end on Sunday (https://www.kktv.com/content/news/City-of-Denver-extends-Stay-At-Home-order-until-May-8-569909491.html). The Denver Metropolitan Area contains nearly half of the state's entire population, so they will still be under more restrictions. Douglas County and El Paso County decided not to extend the stay-at-home order, and they will be adhering to the "Safer At Home" guidelines outlined by Polis. Polis has also given some more flexibility to rural counties, that have been less affected by the pandemic, to enable them to lift more restrictions as practical. However, Weld County, where Greeley is located, seems to be going much farther than the state, and conflict has arisen between them and Polis. So we will see what happens there.

[Calthrina950]

I'm going to provide another update on mask-wearing where I live today. A few days ago, the Colorado Department of Public Health issued an order reinforcing that issued by Governor Polis last week, providing more specific guidelines for mask-wearing by essential employees at work. The order is in effect until May 23. Even though I praised Polis' initial order, I still thought that it was a strange sight to see all of the other employees masked. Several were complaining about how uncomfortable the masks were, like last time, and some were despairing at the prospect that the mask order may be extended past May 23. As for customers, the vast majority-probably around 70%-are wearing masks now. There were of course still that substantial minority which are not doing so, and will never do so unless if they are ordered to-which is something I don't think is going to happen at this point. I can certainly sympathize, from personal experience, with some of the discomforts caused by hours of continuous mask-wearing. But it's a necessary sacrifice for now.

[Calthrina950]

I'm going to provide another update on mask-wearing where I live today. A few days ago, the Colorado Department of Public Health issued an order reinforcing that issued by Governor Polis last week, providing more specific guidelines for mask-wearing by essential employees at work. The order is in effect until May 23. Even though I praised Polis' initial order, I still thought that it was a strange sight to see all of the other employees masked. Several were complaining about how uncomfortable the masks were, like last time, and some were despairing at the prospect that the mask order may be extended past May 23. As for customers, the vast majority-probably around 70%-are wearing masks now. There were of course still that substantial minority which are not doing so, and will never do so unless if they are ordered to-which is something I don't think is going to happen at this point. I can certainly sympathize, from personal experience, with some of the discomforts caused by hours of continuous mask-wearing. But it's a necessary sacrifice for now.

I went to Food Lion today to but chicken and cigarettes. Half the employees weren't even wearing masks. Spotted a few customers wearing them but most weren't.

I guess it depends on where you go. People in Colorado definitely seem to have taken Polis' mask advisory to heart. As I said, it's highly unlikely Colorado mandates mask-wearing for the general public at this point, especially since the state is gradually starting to reopen. However, essential employees must continue wearing them for another month. It's certainly a sight I never thought that I would see.

[Calthrina950]

Expanding upon masks, it looks like Delaware is now the latest state to require its residents to wear masks in public: https://www.fox29.com/news/delaware-residents-employees-ordered-to-wear-masks-in-public-starting-tuesday. Like Colorado, it has also mandated mask-wearing for essential employees. One commonality I notice is that all states which have made mask-wearing mandatory in some form have Democratic governors. Is this an indicator of how seriously they are taking things, compared to Republicans? Or what else?

[Calthrina950]

Expanding upon masks, it looks like Delaware is now the latest state to require its residents to wear masks in public: https://www.fox29.com/news/delaware-residents-employees-ordered-to-wear-masks-in-public-starting-tuesday. Like Colorado, it has also mandated mask-wearing for essential employees. One commonality I notice is that all states which have made mask-wearing mandatory in some form have Democratic governors. Is this an indicator of how seriously they are taking things, compared to Republicans? Or what else?

I hate it when news outlets say "in public." That implies every public park or roadway - instead of just buses and retail stores.

The article itself says "in public spaces." So that means grocery stores, pharmacies, convenience stores, doctor's offices, and public transportation. And businesses are required to turn away customers not wearing a mask. While I think mask advisories are acceptable, I'm leery of state efforts to mandate them. What is your opinion of it? How widespread is it in Kentucky?

[Calthrina950]

The article itself says "in public spaces." So that means grocery stores, pharmacies, convenience stores, doctor's offices, and public transportation. And businesses are required to turn away customers not wearing a mask. While I think mask advisories are acceptable, I'm leery of state efforts to mandate them. What is your opinion of it? How widespread is it in Kentucky?

Around here, about 1 in 20 people wear masks. I don't like the efforts to mandate them, simply because it defies the WHO's advice. I don't think it's even realistic for people to wear masks outdoors anyway, especially if they're over 6 feet from other people.

I don't even have one. I think I'll be able to get a bandana though, but any building that requires one is probably one where I shouldn't be unless it's absolutely necessary.

There's a definite contrast between Kentucky and here. But it'll be interesting to see if any other states jump on that train. What I find interesting is that a hundred years ago, during the Spanish Flu, San Francisco, Seattle, and many other cities mandated mask wearing in public spaces. So this is not the first time its happened in this country. But of course, the Spanish Flu was generations ago, and the only people who may have any living memory of it are centenarians now.

[Calthrina950]

I overlooked Michigan. Governor Whitmer is also requiring her state's residents to wear masks in public spaces: https://www.wndu.com/content/news/Michigans-governor-extends-stay-home-order-through-May-15-eases-rules-569918961.html. So that means we now have seven states (CT, DE, MD, MI, NJ, NY, PA) that require masks in public spaces. A correction is due to my earlier post, as I overlooked Governor Hogan in Maryland. With the exception of him, all other governors requiring masks in public spaces are Democrats. Again, I'm interested to see if masks will become a near-universal requirement, like the stay-at-home orders did.

[Calthrina950]

I overlooked Michigan. Governor Whitmer is also requiring her state's residents to wear masks in public spaces: https://www.wndu.com/content/news/Michigans-governor-extends-stay-home-order-through-May-15-eases-rules-569918961.html. So that means we now have six states (CT, DE, MD, NJ, NY, PA) that require masks in public spaces. A correction is due to my earlier post, as I overlooked Governor Hogan in Maryland. With the exception of him, all other governors requiring masks in public spaces are Democrats. Again, I'm interested to see if masks will become a near-universal requirement, like the stay-at-home orders did.

Aren't most of these orders with the caveat that a mask is only required (in general) when 6 feet cannot be maintained?

Many of these orders do include that caveat, where "social distancing is impossible", but it doesn't change the overall context involved. And again, an order-such as what these states have issued-is very different from a advisory, such as that issued in Colorado for the general public. As I noted above, Delaware is requiring businesses to turn back customers who do not wear masks.

I overlooked Michigan. Governor Whitmer is also requiring her state's residents to wear masks in public spaces: https://www.wndu.com/content/news/Michigans-governor-extends-stay-home-order-through-May-15-eases-rules-569918961.html. So that means we now have six states (CT, DE, MD, NJ, NY, PA) that require masks in public spaces. A correction is due to my earlier post, as I overlooked Governor Hogan in Maryland. With the exception of him, all other governors requiring masks in public spaces are Democrats. Again, I'm interested to see if masks will become a near-universal requirement, like the stay-at-home orders did.

they should be making face masks mandatory in as many places as possible.

I understand your position, particularly as someone who has battled, and successfully recovered from (and I'm very happy that you have), this nefarious disease. But understand that you are always going to have that segment of the population which will rebel against an order such as this one, and I think that the implementation of other social distancing procedures can compensate for such issues. I certainly do think that essential employees ought to wear them (as they are in Colorado), and people in general should be encouraged to wear them. But making it mandatory raises legal and other issues that should be avoided.

[Calthrina950]

Can we just ponder how amazingly wrong the 60k projection was. At current rate, 60k gets crossed within the next three days with no end in sight.

Yes, all of the “flatten the curve” models that were used to justify our strategy have proven incredible wrong in their most basic assumptions.  Plenty of people were was willing to acknowledge how little we know about the virus.  But no one was willing to acknowledge that this might mean we would need a “Plan B” if the lockdowns didn’t work.

And what do you think "Plan B" would look like?

[Calthrina950]

Can we just ponder how amazingly wrong the 60k projection was. At current rate, 60k gets crossed within the next three days with no end in sight.

Yes, all of the “flatten the curve” models that were used to justify our strategy have proven incredible wrong in their most basic assumptions.  Plenty of people were was willing to acknowledge how little we know about the virus.  But no one was willing to acknowledge that this might mean we would need a “Plan B” if the lockdowns didn’t work.

And what do you think "Plan B" would look like?

In broad terms, in areas where the healthcare system is not at risk of breaking down, implement very strict quarantines for vulnerable members of the populations while encouraging the rest of the population to be deliberately infected with an attenuated strain of the virus (though probably not all at once).  People should be quarantined after infection for a few weeks, but issued an immunity certificate after recovery that frees them of all restrictions.  You can lift the quarantines on the vulnerable population once herd immunity to achieved.

This is basically what is going to happen anyway in heavily affected countries, it’s just going to take a lot longer and result in more deaths if the general lockdowns continue.

What is your Plan B if the lockdowns fail?

Well, I certainly don't think the lockdowns can last longer beyond June, and we need to have a framework for reopening the economy. I would support something similar to the "Safer At Home" approach which Polis has proposed in my state, with a focus on maintaining social distancing, promoting sanitary practices, regulating store capacity/safety, and encouraging (but not mandating) the use of masks and the like. We need to continue expanding our testing apparatus, and I would support the idea of quarantining and contact tracing those who are ill with the virus, particularly those in nursing homes and among the most vulnerable populations. I will readily acknowledge that we haven't had the most effective response to this pandemic, not by any means, and the incompetence of our President is a factor in that. Hence, we should be willing to embrace new solutions if need be.

[Calthrina950]

Concerning the conversation on the last page, can I be blunt?

“Flatten the curve” was always about keeping the infection in check, so our healthcare system didn’t become overwhelmed. If our healthcare systems were overcome, then mortality would spike up to somewhere around 4-5%, as people with essential hospital requirements lose access to those services (cancer, automobile accidents etc).

Flattening the curve got us down to a 1% death rate. If we’re lucky, we can keep transmission slow, and contain this thing to regional outbreaks. But the speed of this thing will not seriously abate.

But until we have a vaccine, this thing is going to burn through our countries. Antivirals won’t help with that. All they do is slow the infection down, helping patients already in hospital To fight the infection. Isolation and vaccination are our only tools to prevent transmission.

More to the point, don’t expect a vaccine any time soon. The fastest vaccine programme ever was the Mumps vaccine, which took four years. Ebola took five. Even with all we know, there is a long road ahead. 18 months (ie mid to late 2021) would be an absolute miracle of modern science.

Are you suggesting that we may not see a vaccine until 2024 or 2025? Will social distancing and mask wearing be the norm for the next 4-5 years? Again, I think these are, and will continue to be, necessary measures, but it is mind-boggling to me what the consequences would be if these measures continue for that length of time.

[Calthrina950]

If people can't develop immunity, as there have been hints of since the beginning, this may end up fundamentally changing our society. Obviously things won't remain exactly as they are now forever, but there will be significant change from the old "normal."

Yeah, this could fundamentally alter society for decades. I think that even in the worst case scenario, where this thing evades our immunity in the same way influenza does, we'll eventually beat it though.

I've been studying for my undergrad finals this week, and in the papers I've been reading on influenza, the authors keep mentioning the concept of a universal flu vaccine (a vaccine that targets a highly-conserved motif, present in all influenza-A strains). If we focus on COVID-19 for the next decade, and give it the brains and investment it needs, there's a chance that we could see the same sort of breakthrough for that disease. There are some incredible academic theories being floated about the future of antiviral therapy, that have been ignored, due to a lack of urgency.

This could be the start of another revolution in genetics and microbiology, in the same vein as the development of the Sabin and Salk Polio vaccines, or the development of Next Generation Sequencing techniques in the last two decades. The answers are out there. But we just need more time and more resources.

What are some of the "fundamental" changes that this pandemic can bring about? I've heard much about how it will accelerate automation and virtual interaction, but what will be the implications of those changes? Any other changes that could be longer lasting?

[Calthrina950]

It's funny how there is a lot of hate for DeSantis and lots of love for Whitmer, although Florida has less cases and deaths than Michigan even though it has more than double the population of the Wolverine State.

I don't think either DeSantis or Whitmer are the best examples to look to, in terms of which governors have handled the crisis more effectively. I think better role models can be found with Mike DeWine, Jay Inslee, and Larry Hogan, to give a few examples.

[Calthrina950]

It's funny how there is a lot of hate for DeSantis and lots of love for Whitmer, although Florida has less cases and deaths than Michigan even though it has more than double the population of the Wolverine State.

I don't think either DeSantis or Whitmer are the best examples to look to, in terms of which governors have handled the crisis more effectively. I think better role models can be found with Mike DeWine, Jay Inslee, and Larry Hogan, to give a few examples.

Definitely, also CA had a really good governor too in the crisis.

Newsom has done a good job as well, and California has not been hit nearly as hard by the virus as New York has (neither has Texas, for that matter, and both states, as well as Florida, are more populous than New York). DeSantis is an example of a governor who has done too little in response to the pandemic; Whitmer an example of a governor who has gone too far. Those who are in between the two extremes, and have proceeded in a cautious manner, are worthy of more praise. My state's Governor, Polis, has also done a good job in responding to it.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/otis_reid/status/1254510389225807872

Good thing America is nothing like The Bronx.

I hate to be the one to break this to you, but The Bronx is part of America.

This brings to light something which I think hasn't received enough attention here: that minority communities, particularly black communities, have been hardest hit by this pandemic. I read an article sometime ago about a black church in Harlem, and how at least ten members of the congregation have died from the virus. Even though the pandemic hasn't been as severe in much of the country (though that can change), it has definitely hit New York City hard.

This also brings me around to another point. I'm saddened by how people are unable to let their political viewpoints be cast aside for the sake of common action on this crisis. Many on the right, in particular, continue to downplay the virus's effects, in the sense of health. Yes, it has had devastating economic repercussions-as I've acknowledged-but the effects of it on real people have too often been discounted.

[Calthrina950]

To be fair, the virus-truther at least has a point on this one. The Bronx is far more dense than most of America and has a higher rate of minorities (who for some reason are more likely to die from this)
Most of America will probably at least do somewhat better than the Bronx is, but that doesn’t mean we should reopen by any means.

Many blacks suffer from obesity, high blood pressure, and the diseases associated with these (particularly heart disease and diabetes) at higher rates than the rest of the population. Blacks are also more likely to live in multi-generational households (as are Hispanics), have less reliable (and lower-quality) healthcare, and are more likely to live in neighborhoods with more unsanitary conditions. Throughout this country's history, we've been hit by just about every natural disaster or pandemic worse than whites have.

[Calthrina950]

To be fair, the virus-truther at least has a point on this one. The Bronx is far more dense than most of America and has a higher rate of minorities (who for some reason are more likely to die from this)
Most of America will probably at least do somewhat better than the Bronx is, but that doesn’t mean we should reopen by any means.

Many blacks suffer from obesity, high blood pressure, and the diseases associated with these (particularly heart disease and diabetes) at higher rates than the rest of the population. Blacks are also more likely to live in multi-generational households (as are Hispanics), have less reliable (and lower-quality) healthcare, and are more likely to live in neighborhoods with more unsanitary conditions. Throughout this country's history, we've been hit by just about every natural disaster or pandemic worse than whites have.

This is replicable in many diverse population centers. Look at San Francisco for example:

https://www.sfexaminer.com/news/people-of-color-make-up-majority-of-coronavirus-deaths-in-san-francisco/


Economic hardship and racial/class disparities are often correlated for obvious reasons.

I certainly agree, and know of this. San Francisco, from what I understand, has also been experiencing a major outbreak among its homeless population. So again, this reinforces my conviction that this pandemic is not something which should be taken lightly, and its effects are going to last much longer than some on here (I'm looking at you Del Tachi) are willing to acknowledge.