How would the previous hypothetical congressional district vote? (user search)
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  How would the previous hypothetical congressional district vote? (search mode)
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Author Topic: How would the previous hypothetical congressional district vote?  (Read 687 times)
Schiff for Senate
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Posts: 12,311
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« on: January 10, 2022, 11:17:02 PM »

Narrowly Trump, will likely vote Dem soon enough. Was about 65%+ Romney, and probably well over 70% for Bush.

Population: 742,229
Demographics: 75% White, 16% Hispanic, 3% Black, 2% Asian
MHI: $78k
Occupation: 43% White Collar, 32% Blue Collar, 25% Grey Collar
Population Distribution: 95% Urban, 5% Rural

Northeastern suburbs/exurbs
It probably went Trump by about 10 points but trended left, but trended right in 2016 and voted more strongly for Trump in 2020 than Romney (though not either of the Bush elections)

Population: 756,263
Density: 1,223/sq. mi
Demographics: 61% White, 24% Black, 11% Hispanic, 3% Asian
MHI: $53k
Occupation: 56% White Collar, 30% Blue Collar, 14% Gray Collar
Population Distribution: 97% Urban, 3% Rural


Definitely blue, though it probably hasn't trended much to the left (and might have actually trended somewhat rightward) in the Trump years.

Population (2010): 732,120
Area: Roughly the size of the IN-01
Demographics: 64% white; 17% Hispanic; 8% black; 7% Asian; 4% other/mixed
Occupation: 46% white collar; 29% blue collar; 25% grey collar
MHI: $66,000
Population Distribution: 85% urban, 15% rural
2010-2020 Growth: 12%
Largest City Population (2010): 226,000
Largest City 2010-2020 Growth: 14%
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Schiff for Senate
CentristRepublican
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*****
Posts: 12,311
United States


« Reply #1 on: May 29, 2022, 10:10:22 PM »

Narrowly Trump, will likely vote Dem soon enough. Was about 65%+ Romney, and probably well over 70% for Bush.

Population: 742,229
Demographics: 75% White, 16% Hispanic, 3% Black, 2% Asian
MHI: $78k
Occupation: 43% White Collar, 32% Blue Collar, 25% Grey Collar
Population Distribution: 95% Urban, 5% Rural

Northeastern suburbs/exurbs
It probably went Trump by about 10 points but trended left, but trended right in 2016 and voted more strongly for Trump in 2020 than Romney (though not either of the Bush elections)

Population: 756,263
Density: 1,223/sq. mi
Demographics: 61% White, 24% Black, 11% Hispanic, 3% Asian
MHI: $53k
Occupation: 56% White Collar, 30% Blue Collar, 14% Gray Collar
Population Distribution: 97% Urban, 3% Rural


Definitely blue, though it probably hasn't trended much to the left (and might have actually trended somewhat rightward) in the Trump years.

Population (2010): 732,120
Area: Roughly the size of the IN-01
Demographics: 64% white; 17% Hispanic; 8% black; 7% Asian; 4% other/mixed
Occupation: 46% white collar; 29% blue collar; 25% grey collar
MHI: $66,000
Population Distribution: 85% urban, 15% rural
2010-2020 Growth: 12%
Largest City Population (2010): 226,000
Largest City 2010-2020 Growth: 14%
Lean/Likely Democratic, and probably trended somewhat right in the Trump era

Population (2020): 697,087
Density: 88/sq. mi
Demographics: 83% White, 8% Hispanic, 4% Black, 2% Asian, 3% Other/Mixed
MHI: $66k
Bachelor's+ rate: 31%
Population Distribution: 37% urban

Right-wing and has trended Republican during the Trump era.

POPULATION (2020): 756,023
DENSITY: 117 people a square mile
DEMOGRAPHICS: 57% white, 18% Hispanic, 15% black, 6% Asian
MHI: $58,000
BACHELOR'S+: 33%
POPULATION DISTRIBUTION: 63% urban, 37% rural
2010-2020 GROWTH: 6.0%
LARGEST CITY POP. (2020): If looking at entire city, including portions outside district - 161,672 (city split between districts; the number of people in this district's portion of the city is 76,630) If looking only at portions of city within district - 133,005 (entire city located in district)
LARGEST CITY 2010-2020 GROWTH: Of city partially in district, 19.4%; of city entirely in district, 12.1%

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Schiff for Senate
CentristRepublican
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Posts: 12,311
United States


« Reply #2 on: June 03, 2022, 01:18:42 PM »

Above district sounds pretty similar to GA-07, so I'm guessing it zoomed towards the Democrats under Trump and isn't going back anytime soon

My district:

Population:  694,480 (-2.0% from 2010)
Density:  85.8/mi2
Demographics:  46% White, 44% Black, 8% Hispanic, 1% Asian
Economy:  Historically agricultural, but most jobs are now centered in a handful of growing, small cities and towns.  A major state university is located here.  
MHI:  $43,211
Population distribution:  62% Urban, 32% Rural

Location:  Deep South

Not demographically at least. IIRC, GA07 is a lot more than 32% white, a lot less than 33% Hispanic, and much more than 2% black.

Anyway, as for your district, has voted only Democratic for a long time. It trended rightward in 2020, but still backed Biden by a decent if somewhat narrow margin. As for margins, I'd expect Obama won it by low double digits in 2012, and Clinton and Biden won it by about 2-5 points.

POPULATION (2020): 809,737
POPULATION (2010): 746,996
DENSITY (2020): 119 people a square mile
DENSITY (2010): 110 people a square mile
DEMOGRAPHICS (2020): 77% white, 13% Hispanic, 6% black
DEMOGRAPHICS (2010): 83% white, 8% Hispanic, 4% black
DISTRIBUTION (2020): 19% live in places with a population of over 70,000; 65% live in places with a population between 35,000 and 70,000; 16% live in places with a population of under 35,000
DISTRIBUTION (2010): 21% live in places with a population of over 70,000; 59% live in places with a population between 35,000 and 70,000; 20% live in places with a population of under 35,000
GROWTH 2010-2020: 8.4%
LARGEST CITY POP. (2020): If looking at entire city, including portions outside district - 410,000 (city split between districts; the number of people in this district's portion of the city is 30,000); If looking only at portions of city within district - 110,000
LARGEST CITY POP. (2010): If looking at entire city, including portions outside district - 350,000 (city split between districts; the number of people in this district's portion of the city is 25,000); If looking only at portions of city within district - 100,000
ECONOMY (2020): 29% white collar; 29% blue collar; 42% gray collar
ECONOMY (2010): 30% white collar; 35% blue collar; 35% gray collar
EDUCATION (2020): High school diploma - 91%; Bachelor's+ - 33%
EDUCATION (2010): High school diploma - 88%; Bachelor's+ - 27%
EAST OR WEST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER: East
NORTH OR SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER: North
MHI (2020): $61,000 a year
MHI (2010): $56,000 a year
GAP BETWEEN THE RICHEST 1/3 AND POOREST 1/3 (2020): Higher than in 63% of districts
GAP BETWEEN THE RICHEST 1/3 AND POOREST 1/3 (2010): Higher than in 68% of districts
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