Oklahoma redistricting ballot proposal signature collection started.

[Skill and Chance]

Potentially a very significant development.  This would basically force a Tilt D seat in OKC for Horn (and it should get substantially safer over the decade) and a compact Tulsa seat that could be competitive by the end of the decade, when it would otherwise be trivially easy for the legislature to draw 5R/0D with 60%+ Trump districts.

[Skill and Chance]

For Reference:

Current state of congressional redistricting reform for 2021 apportionment:

Yellow = completely independent process
Green = legislature draws with substantial restrictions

Notes on restrictions:

CT and ME: 2/3rds majority of legislature required to approve a map.

FL: state constitutional amendment imposing many restrictions on partisan maps

KY: bans unnecessary county splits (has a practical impact of forcing a Dem-leaning seat in Louisville that the legislature would otherwise try to eliminate)

OH: county splitting restrictions, maps passed with support from only one party expire after 4 years instead of the normal 10

NY and UT: commission proposes maps that legislature may edit to a certain degree

NC and PA: state court rulings imposing many restrictions on partisan maps


Maximum potential for redistricting reform by voter initiative:

VA and NH do not have the voter initiative, but their legislatures have already voted to begin the process of adopting a commission.  Additional action is required in both states for it to take effect.


Partisan control over the 2021 redistricting process as of today (60% shading = veto proof majority, 30% shading = control with significant external limits on map drawing):