Updated ARD exit
24.7% Union 155+43 Seats
24.9% SPD 197 Seats
14.8% Green 117
11.3% AfD 89
11.2% FDP 88
5% Linke 40
An another indication of an Americanization of German elections:
Will the 2021 federal election turn into a 2016 US election? 🤔
The SPD might receive the most second votes while the Union could pickup more seats (thanks to overhang and leveling seats for the CSU.)
It would be extremely funny and ironic if the SSW seat (an SPD ally) was going to tip the scale.
I thought the leveling seats were assigned based on national results? Was the law changed since last time?
provides an example calculation of how the seats are calculated now using the 2017 results as an example. I've been able to implement it in code but I find it hard to explain still, here's my best attempt to explain it regardless:
First, calculate how many seats each party should get by proportional vote in each state, then assign seats to each state based on this (scaled to 598)
Second, calculate the minimum number of seats a party is entitled to in a state - this is calculated by taking the maximum value of either the number of constituencies they won in a state, or the average value rounded up of the number of constituencies they won in a state and the proportional amount of seats they should receive in a state.
Third, calculate on a federal level, finding a divisor where the number of overhang seats (initially calculated by the cumulative number of excess seats a party won among each state) cumulatively among all parties would be reduced to 3 or less, then add those excess overhang seats to each party's total.
In this case, the seat total can be heavily influenced based on the CSU performance, if they win many more constituencies relative to their second vote percentage, it can skew the Bundestag size upwards greatly.
