COVID-19 Megathread 6: Return of the Omicron

[Meclazine for Israel]

Which vaccine is the best overall (of course there are different ways to judge it)? In New Zealand we could only get Pfizer, though I'd have been happy to get any.

Moderna seems to have the strongest immune response and general immunity lasts longer, with Pfizer droppingto 20% effectiveness after six months. Moderna and Pfizer seem roughly equal (Moderna slightly higher) in preventing hospitalization/death with little to no drop-off.

J+J doesn't seem to have a drop-off.  Or at least I haven't seen it reported.  That would suggest the much-maligned J+J (which I got) is the winner.

Keep in mind that different people have differing immune systems. 60-70% of people will not get sick from COVID-19 and develop their own anti-bodies of varying strength for varying times.

For example, a 5 y.o. could come into contact with Coronavirus, not get that sick and develop an immune response that last 45-50 years.

Another could develop a weaker response for 5 years, and another could develop a super strong response for life.

Some people simple don't get sick from this thing.

The main victims have been people with poor quality immune systems. Think of the immune system like a photocopier designed to keep a record of your incoming virus' for later action.

People with pre-exisitng medical complications, disabled and elderly people have old and less functional photocopiers.

Whereas young children have the latest model and their first 'photocopies' of new viruses appear to stay with them for life in terms of their immune response.

So when they get attacked 20 years later with a H2N2 virus, if their first exposure was a H2N2 virus, then they will have an excellent immune response.

That is what is going on here.

[GP270watch]

 I'm not getting any boosters. The governments of the world need to concentrate on getting shots to unvaccinated people, especially since unlike the United States people around the globe are desperate for these vaccines.

[emailking]

FDA advisers vote unanimously to recommend booster doses of Johnson & Johnson's Covid-19 vaccine

Vaccine advisers to the US Food and Drug Administration voted unanimously Friday to recommend a booster dose of Johnson & Johnson's vaccine at least two months after people get the first dose.

The FDA's Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee voted 19-0 to recommend the extra dose for all recipients of the J&J Janssen vaccine, 18 and older. They asked to simplify the original question being posed by the FDA, which had asked the committee to say whether the data showed that waiting six months or longer after getting the first shot would provide an even stronger immune response.

The FDA will now consider the committee's advice. Then the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's vaccine advisers will be asked to consider it.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/10/15/health/fda-jj-booster-committee-friday/index.html

[emailking]

So to summarize the booster situation, as I understand it. For Pfizer and Moderna, boosters are approved 6 months after fully vaxxed, for everyone 65 & older and for everyone 18-64 who is at increased risk because of their health or their job. (Moderna booster is half dose.) J&J booster is approved for everyone 18 & older, 2 months after first dose.

[Horus]

I'm not getting any boosters. The governments of the world need to concentrate on getting shots to unvaccinated people, especially since unlike the United States people around the globe are desperate for these vaccines.

Neither am I, unless my Dr. says it's absolutely vital.

[Calthrina950]

I'm not getting any boosters. The governments of the world need to concentrate on getting shots to unvaccinated people, especially since unlike the United States people around the globe are desperate for these vaccines.

I've made this same point myself. People in Africa, Asia, and Latin America would crawl over broken glass to obtain the vaccine. We are so privileged, and it's a disgrace that so many people in this country don't want to get vaccinated.

[_.]

UPDATE! SEPTEMBER 30 WITH 2020 CENSUS DATA!

1. (+13) 324 - Mississippi
2. (+11) 298 - Louisiana
3. (+3) 295 - New Jersey
4. (+25) 285 - Alabama
5. (+8) 279 - Arizona
6. (+2) 273 - New York state
7. (+3) 265 - Massachusetts
8. (+2) 258 - Rhode Island
9. (+19) 255 - Florida
9. (+9) 255 - Arkansas

11. 244 - South Carolina
12. 242 - Georgia
12. 241 - South Dakota
14. 239 - Connecticut
15. 230 - Indiana
16. 229 - Nevada
17. 227 - Oklahoma
18. 226 - New Mexico
18. 226 - Pennsylvania
20. 222 - Michigan

21. 218 - Tennessee
21. 218 - Texas
23. 216 - Illinois
24. 207 - North Dakota
25. 206 - Kansas
25. 206 - Iowa
27. 203 - West Virginia
28. 197 - Delaware
29. 193 - Kentucky
30. 187 - Missouri

UPDATE! OCTOBER 15!

1. (+11) 335 - Mississippi
2. (+9) 307 - Louisiana
3. (+16) 301 - Alabama
4. (+3) 298 - New Jersey
5. (+7) 286 - Arizona
6. (+3) 276 - New York
7. (+16) 271 - Arkansas
8. (+13) 268 - Florida
9. (+2) 267 - Massachusetts
10. (+3) 261 - Rhode Island

11. (+15) 257 - Georgia
11. (+13) 257 - South Carolina
13. (+5) 246- South Dakota
14. (+2) 241 - Connecticut
15. (+9) 239 - Indiana
15. (+10) 239 - Nevada
15. (+12) 239 - Oklahoma
18. (+6) 233 - Pennsylvania
19. (+5) 232 - New Mexico
20. (+13) 231 - Texas

21. (+10) 228 - Tennessee
22. (+5) 227 - Michigan
23. (+23) 226 - West Virginia
24. (+4) 220 - Illinois
25. (+7) 214 - North Dakota
26. (+6) 212 - Iowa
27. (+3) 209 - Kansas
28. (+13) 206 - Kentucky
29. (+6) 203 - Delaware
30. (+?) 196 - Montana

[Hammy]

I'm not getting any boosters. The governments of the world need to concentrate on getting shots to unvaccinated people, especially since unlike the United States people around the globe are desperate for these vaccines.

Neither am I, unless my Dr. says it's absolutely vital.

I plan to at the six month mark, as my mother is almost 70 and has asthma. 

[It’s so Joever]

Y’all do know that not getting a booster as an individual won’t help the situation in developing countries regarding a vaccine at all, right? Like do want you want with boosters, but you choosing to not get a booster as one person does nothing to change the situation.

[Pericles]

I'm not getting a booster either for a long while so I'm going to be bloody furious if you people hoarding boosters means we get a variant even worse than Delta.

[Skill and Chance]

Y’all do know that not getting a booster as an individual won’t help the situation in developing countries regarding a vaccine at all, right? Like do want you want with boosters, but you choosing to not get a booster as one person does nothing to change the situation.

Yes, whatever led to this situation, there's simply no viable way to get all the expiring excess doses here into remote parts of the world in time.

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Globalbiosec/status/1448841367103234051

[emailking]

I don't know what that means.

[Hammy]

I don't know what that means.

I assume that's a rough estimate of how long you'd need exposed to the virus under those different sets of circumstances.

[Former President tack50]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Globalbiosec/status/1448841367103234051

I am surprised the table is symmetric given that I have always been told that regular cloth/surgical masks do not protect the wearer, they only stop the wearer from infecting others. (That's why they stop/slow down transmission, but wearing a mask won't mean you don't get infected)

[Hammy]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Globalbiosec/status/1448841367103234051

I am surprised the table is symmetric given that I have always been told that regular cloth/surgical masks do not protect the wearer, they only stop the wearer from infecting others. (That's why they stop/slow down transmission, but wearing a mask won't mean you don't get infected)

This is likely a rough estimate rather than a hard absolute, given everything save for cloth mask is rounded to 10%. Also likely errs on the side of 'worst case' so to speak.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/UrbanAchievr/status/1449362768939859970

[Hammy]

https://twitter.com/UrbanAchievr/status/1449362768939859970

Kind of interesting to compare that to January, and you can see the change in distribution from before there were vaccines to now, highlighting the people would rather bury their head in the sand and pretend covid doesn't exist than get vaccinated.

[Not Me, Us]

Y’all do know that not getting a booster as an individual won’t help the situation in developing countries regarding a vaccine at all, right? Like do want you want with boosters, but you choosing to not get a booster as one person does nothing to change the situation.

This. Like it or not, the doses are already here. I think we should have sent them abroad, but it's too late, so you might as well get the booster since it's here. I'm eligible for mine at the end of the month and plan on getting it as soon as I can.

[GeorgiaModerate]

A COVID-19 story from the sports world: the Washington State University football coach and several assistant coaches have been fired for not complying with the vaccine mandate for state employees.  

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/32426315/nick-rolovich-washington-state-football-coach-refusing-state-mandated-covid-19-vaccine-source-says

[pbrower2a]

A COVID-19 story from the sports world: the Washington State University football coach and several assistant coaches have been fired for not complying with the vaccine mandate for state employees.  

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/32426315/nick-rolovich-washington-state-football-coach-refusing-state-mandated-covid-19-vaccine-source-says

An employer's right.

[Meclazine for Israel]

A COVID-19 story from the sports world: the Washington State University football coach and several assistant coaches have been fired for not complying with the vaccine mandate for state employees.  

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/32426315/nick-rolovich-washington-state-football-coach-refusing-state-mandated-covid-19-vaccine-source-says

An employer's right.

And a mandate from the State. We have exactly the same situation coming with men's football in 2022.

Once it is a State mandate, then the decision is much easier for the NFL. It becomes clearly manageable for employers.

[Del Tachi]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Globalbiosec/status/1448841367103234051

I am surprised the table is symmetric given that I have always been told that regular cloth/surgical masks do not protect the wearer, they only stop the wearer from infecting others. (That's why they stop/slow down transmission, but wearing a mask won't mean you don't get infected)

The table is symmetric because it's only an arithmetic transformation of the CDC's 15-minute "time to infectious dose" threshold for contact tracing (an assumption that has no scientific basis, btw) calculated from estimates of leakage obtained from a study where different types of mask material were fitted to mannequins in a lab, lol.  If you actually read the CIDRAP post imbedded in the tweet it's quite plain in stating that public masking offers no measurable benefit in preventing the spread of COVID-19 and should be considered, at best, a tertiary method of controlling the pandemic.

The whole write-up by CIDRAP is a good read if you actually want to understand the science/politics of masking policies (i.e., not any red avatars in this thread lol) 

[emailking]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Globalbiosec/status/1448841367103234051

I am surprised the table is symmetric given that I have always been told that regular cloth/surgical masks do not protect the wearer, they only stop the wearer from infecting others. (That's why they stop/slow down transmission, but wearing a mask won't mean you don't get infected)

The table is symmetric because it's only an arithmetic transformation of the CDC's 15-minute "time to infectious dose" threshold for contact tracing (an assumption that has no scientific basis, btw) calculated from estimates of leakage obtained from a study where different types of mask material were fitted to mannequins in a lab, lol.  If you actually read the CIDRAP post imbedded in the tweet it's quite plain in stating that public masking offers no measurable benefit in preventing the spread of COVID-19 and should be considered, at best, a tertiary method of controlling the pandemic.

The whole write-up by CIDRAP is a good read if you actually want to understand the science/politics of masking policies (i.e., not any red avatars in this thread lol) 

I can believe the table involves a lot of hand waving, but that post seems to just be anti-mask.

The slo-mo videos that show how much that droplets are hindered by masks was enough to convince me they're worth it.

Re-running the pandemic with all the same restrictions except no masks is the kind of evidence you would need to conclude masks did not make significance difference. Obviously, we can't do that, so we'll never know.

[Calthrina950]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Globalbiosec/status/1448841367103234051

I am surprised the table is symmetric given that I have always been told that regular cloth/surgical masks do not protect the wearer, they only stop the wearer from infecting others. (That's why they stop/slow down transmission, but wearing a mask won't mean you don't get infected)

The table is symmetric because it's only an arithmetic transformation of the CDC's 15-minute "time to infectious dose" threshold for contact tracing (an assumption that has no scientific basis, btw) calculated from estimates of leakage obtained from a study where different types of mask material were fitted to mannequins in a lab, lol.  If you actually read the CIDRAP post imbedded in the tweet it's quite plain in stating that public masking offers no measurable benefit in preventing the spread of COVID-19 and should be considered, at best, a tertiary method of controlling the pandemic.

The whole write-up by CIDRAP is a good read if you actually want to understand the science/politics of masking policies (i.e., not any red avatars in this thread lol) 

I can believe the table involves a lot of hand waving, but that post seems to just be anti-mask.

The slo-mo videos that show how much that droplets are hindered by masks was enough to convince me they're worth it.

Re-running the pandemic with all the same restrictions except no masks is the kind of evidence you would need to conclude masks did not make significance difference. Obviously, we can't do that, so we'll never know.

This is somewhat of a tangent, but I've noticed at my job that the number of masked customers seems to have established itself at ~40-45%. More people have resumed with mask-wearing over the past few months. And that figure closely correlates with the percentage Biden received in El Paso County last year. This relates to my point that mask-wearing seems strongly correlated with partisanship at this point.

Moreover, Larimer County, Colorado reinstated its mask mandate, using ICU capacity as their justification. Some jurisdictions certainly do seem to be doubling down on masks. The CDC itself recently reiterated the importance of mask-wearing in public, so it's clear that we won't see another change to the recommendations this year.