Feeling very good about WI/NC/NV (all Lean R), but it’s going to come down to AZ/GA/PA. Republicans need one of those three races to win the majority, and unfortunately, they’ve nominated candidates likely to underperform generic R by a few points in all three states. However, I still think they can win one of those states (probably PA?), maybe two on a really good night, but they’ll need a favorable environment to pull it off.
Republicans are down by more than 2020 in AZ and PA, Masters and Oz have choked and it looks unlikely to happen there. So it could come down to GA again but Walker will struggle to win a majority or a runoff. Democrats are more likely to win, even though an upset is possible.