2009 New Jersey Governor's Race

[Tender Branson]

Corzine is still down by 5 in Mid-October.

"(S)till down by 5" seems to indicate you believe he is currently down by 5, which assuredly isn't the case. 

What do you mean ?

[Eraserhead]

It portrays the general disdain that has been built up against the Democratic party over the last few years.  You have no idea what this state is about, how our people feel, or what the issues facing us even are. 

Yet, you think you can issue some sort of absolute statement about how our election will turn out

Ugh, please don't start pulling a Phil on us, Down.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Corzine is still down by 5 in Mid-October.

"(S)till down by 5" seems to indicate you believe he is currently down by 5, which assuredly isn't the case. 

What do you mean ?

Just that 5 is inequal to 7-8.

[Eraserhead]

Corzine is still down by 5 in Mid-October.

"(S)till down by 5" seems to indicate you believe he is currently down by 5, which assuredly isn't the case. 

What do you mean ?

Just that 5 is inequal to 7-8.

Let the quibbling begin!

[Tender Branson]

Corzine is still down by 5 in Mid-October.

"(S)till down by 5" seems to indicate you believe he is currently down by 5, which assuredly isn't the case. 

What do you mean ?

Just that 5 is inequal to 7-8.

If we include the DemCorps poll into the mix, it´s right at 5%.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

If we include the DemCorps poll into the mix, it´s right at 5%.

But why on earth would you want to when there are plenty of reliable, non-partisan polls on the table that say something entirely different? 

[Tender Branson]

I don't pretend to know who is going to win an Austrian race, don't pretend to know you have any idea what is going on in my race

That's actually pretty interesting, speaking of it:

Chris Christie (R) and our Josef Pröll of the conservative ÖVP and Vice-Chancellor could be brothers. They almost even have the same belly size ...

 

[Lunar]

damn Corzine you shouldn't have gone with the Mammogram attack, that was stupid

[Eraserhead]

If we include the DemCorps poll into the mix, it´s right at 5%.

But why on earth would you want to when there are plenty of reliable, non-partisan polls on the table that say something entirely different? 

If you include SV, I'd think you would have to include DemCorps as well.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

If we include the DemCorps poll into the mix, it´s right at 5%.

But why on earth would you want to when there are plenty of reliable, non-partisan polls on the table that say something entirely different? 

If you include SV, I'd think you would have to include DemCorps as well.

Feel free to leave SV out, then—all it does it say the same thing as all the independent polls in the mix: Rasmussen, Quinnipiac, Monmouth, et al.  Every single recent poll has had Christie up by at least 7, save for Carville's GQR garbage.

[Rowan]

damn Corzine you shouldn't have gone with the Mammogram attack, that was stupid

You mean attacking a guy whose mother had breast cancer on the issues of mammograms isn't a brilliant idea???

[Meeker]

My SUPER-COOL-AND-INSIGHTFUL-INSIDER-REPORT can be found here: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=102503.msg2168331#msg2168331

[Lunar]

damn Corzine you shouldn't have gone with the Mammogram attack, that was stupid

You mean attacking a guy whose mother had breast cancer on the issues of mammograms isn't a brilliant idea???

it's not a game-killer, but it certainly kills your momentum

dumb as crap though for the Corzine campaign, glad I'm not involved over there

[DownWithTheLeft]

Meeker, dumping the script was a good idea.  I did too really fast especially considering the amount of people who didn't what GOP was when I said I was from the NJGOP.

[Meeker]

They wanted us to phone bank today. Starting at 10 AM. On a Sunday. Same script as yesterday. My favorite quote was the field organizer who proudly proclaimed that "The Corzine campaign has a different message each week." The girl sitting next to me literally choked on her water.

I managed to get out of it and instead was tasked with adding vote-by-mail applications from Rutgers and Rowan to their database. Only the folks who were getting the students to fill out the applications clearly didn't understand how they worked because they had them write their home address as their mailing address meaning that that's where the ballot will be mailed to - not the students' dorms. There were literally hundreds like this.

At that point I just gave up and started following the German election results on my cell phone.

[Alcon]

Registering students to vote with their homes as mailing addresses is, like, College Democrats league stuff.  If that.  It always amazes me how few higher-up people in politics understand the kind of follow-through you need to get people to actually cast ballots for you.

I also like how they expected you to unironically read "For President Obama. For Democratic values. For New Jersey." out loud in front of an actual person.

Are you sure this isn't just a joke and the actual Democratic machine in New Jersey is secretly recruiting voters for a 60-40 landslide?

[Meeker]

Registering students to vote with their homes as mailing addresses is, like, College Democrats league stuff.  If that.  It always amazes me how few higher-up people in politics understand the kind of follow-through you need to get people to actually cast ballots for you.

I also like how they expected you to unironically read "For President Obama. For Democratic values. For New Jersey." out loud in front of an actual person.

Are you sure this isn't just a joke and the actual Democratic machine in New Jersey is secretly recruiting voters for a 60-40 landslide?

I would not at all be surprised to find out in three months that my entire trip was secretly filmed for a hilarious new reality show.

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Are you sure this isn't just a joke and the actual Democratic machine in New Jersey is secretly recruiting voters for a 60-40 landslide?

To be frank, the NJ Democratic Party has almost entirely given up on Corzine at this point—Corzine's money is the only thing keeping this from slowly degrading into a full-on 1985-style total organizational abandonment.

If you need evidence of this, you need only look at the very public way the battle for State Senate President has been fought the past month or two.  Or the way Wisnewski is mounting his bid for Assembly Speaker, putting Dems like Linda Greenstein in an awkward pre-election position.  Democrats are focusing on the jobs they're guaranteed to have come January 2010.  Corzi-who?

Or, more accurately, they're focusing on the jobs they THINK they'll have.

They really need a coherent statewide effort to keep the turnout machine going in places they think are safe, otherwise there are going to be some really interesting surprises on election night.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Republicans have the opposite attitude, we are all told that our oppurtunities are going to expand come January

[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

By the way, for those who want to theorize about the impact of Daggett, here's a little piece from PoliticsNJ that sums up why polling inflates his numbers:

http://www.politickernj.com/wallye/33501/daggetts-crappy-ballot-position

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[Small Business Owner of Any Repute]

Afraid of debating?  Corzine?  Nah!  I mean, look, he's technically agreed to do debates!  I mean, it's not network TV and it's not NJ 101.5, but... umm...

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I just really liked the tens of New Jerseyans line.

[fezzyfestoon]

Yeah, I think anyone with real political knowledge should know that Daggett's poll numbers are more of a "not them" vote than actual support.  Most of his supporters have no idea what he supports but know he's not Corzine and he's not Christie.

[DownWithTheLeft]

Wow, I just saw the driving record commercial for the first time.  Is this is a joke?  I mean seriously the dude that blatently told his state employee driver to disregard the speed limits and didn't wear a seatbelt is going to make commercials about this?  Did he also forget about his AG nominee and her traffic issues?

[Rowan]

Quinnipiac poll will be out tomorrow.

[Tender Branson]

Christie (R): 43% (-4)
Corzine (D): 39% (+2)
Daggett (I): 12% (+3)

From September 23 - 28, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,188 New Jersey likely voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points.

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1299.xml?ReleaseID=1377