Canadian by-elections 2021-2022

[beesley]

PQ commissioned a poll which has Matane-Matapédia, held by their former parliamentary leader Pascal Bérubé, as their only safe seat but claimed a statistical tie in Marie-Victorin had PSPP been a candidate.

I may be mistaken, but I think the poll was just of Marie-Victorin - the image is of the seats Qc125 gives the PQ a chance in. The point was despite that poll, M-V was not one of them - pretty bad overall.

[beesley]

Won't be a 2021 by-election, but just signposting that there is a vacancy in Thompson (Manitoba Legislature) following the sudden death of its MLA Danielle Adams - who gained the seat for the NDP in 2019.

[beesley]

I'm surprised that Georgina Jolibois wasn't available to win this - she seemed one of the best NDP MPs. But given it looks like the CPC notionally won this seat at the last two elections, perhaps we shouldn't be so surprised.

[beesley]

https://twitter.com/PaulMitchell_AB/status/1503971714929025029?t=Z9E1_Tz8Jo51EZ-...

Final results.

[beesley]

Only a negligible difference in the grand scheme of thing, but my guess is a small band of straight ticket Liberals (excuse the American terminology) which prove to be greater in number than supporters of the Alberta Party itself, rather than the two leaders its had. And unlike last election none of the parties really functioned as an establishment option or perpetuated the dissatisfaction that surrounded itself with Notley at that time.

[beesley]

So the extent to which it is a harbinger of good fortune for the Liberals is pretty limited?

[beesley]

(and possibly still end up as official opposition thanks to West Island).

Ironically, that would be rather reminiscent of how the Bloc became the federal opposition in 1993 (as you know).