Israeli General Election (2nd of March, 2020): Madness

[Walmart_shopper]

Yisrael HaYom found a new pollster (at last), and here is what they released this morning:

Blue and White 37
Likud 31
Joint List 14
Shas 8
Yisrael Beiteinu 8
UTJ 7
Labor - Gesher 6
New Right 5
 Democratic Camp 4

Left 61
Right 51

Other polling this week showed the left with 58 to 60 (and a healthy lead over the right), and Blue and White with at least a 3 mandate advantage over the Likud. One Maariv poll showed the left dropling to 56 mandates with the Likud down only 2 and both New Right and Jewish Home clearing the threshold. This last poll is definitely the ceiling for the right wing, and the bulk of polling puts the left on the cusp of an outright majority.

[Walmart_shopper]

Can I also just say how mindbogglingly weird it is that in Israel (of all places) the left is ascendent while in so many other countries, even more conventionally leftist ones, the right has recently come near or actually into power. Obviously the same global political trends happening in the UK, Australia, Italy, Uruguay and Poland and on and on are at work here, too, but the fact that Israel still has a meaningfully competitive center-left in a global milieu like this is perhaps a small miracle. I think that is less about the left or the right in Israel than about the catastrophic influence Netanyahu is having on the right wing, but I suppose the fact that one of the world's strongest right wings is letting itself implode to protect one morally questionable man from prosecution for serious felonies is actually not believable. Of all the places in the world, Israel is one where the left shouldn't be so resurgent. As much as I would love to see this phenomenon copy-pasted in the US, Hungary, and Brazil, the truth is that bad (and probably much worse than Netanyahu) leadership is not necessary crippling the autocratic right in those places.

[Walmart_shopper]

Meretz is talking about merging with the Arabs again.

Lol yikes

This will never work in their favor. Their voter base will flock to Labor and they’ll probably fail to make the threshold at the following election.

I think you're underestimating the radicalism of Meretz voters.

So it would go from 13 seats refusing to be part of a coalition to... 18 seats refusing to be part of a coalition? Really don't see what this would achieve tbh.

I never said it would increase votes for the left--only that Meretz voters wouldn't be put off by partnership with the Joint List.  In any case, the point would be to keep Meretz from dipping under the threshold, which is entirely possible. Labor is probably better off with Blue and White, anyway, which gives a center right bloc of 40-43 seats and the left-left a bloc of 17-19 seats. Do the math and you have close to a majority with zero chance of anyone going under the threshold.

[Hnv1]

Can I also just say how mindbogglingly weird it is that in Israel (of all places) the left is ascendent while in so many other countries, even more conventionally leftist ones, the right has recently come near or actually into power. Obviously the same global political trends happening in the UK, Australia, Italy, Uruguay and Poland and on and on are at work here, too, but the fact that Israel still has a meaningfully competitive center-left in a global milieu like this is perhaps a small miracle. I think that is less about the left or the right in Israel than about the catastrophic influence Netanyahu is having on the right wing, but I suppose the fact that one of the world's strongest right wings is letting itself implode to protect one morally questionable man from prosecution for serious felonies is actually not believable. Of all the places in the world, Israel is one where the left shouldn't be so resurgent. As much as I would love to see this phenomenon copy-pasted in the US, Hungary, and Brazil, the truth is that bad (and probably much worse than Netanyahu) leadership is not necessary crippling the autocratic right in those places.

I don’t know what left is ascending. B&W is centrist at best with edges on both sides, but it’s a left party and the 4 chiefs especially are pretty right wing

[jaymichaud]

Can I also just say how mindbogglingly weird it is that in Israel (of all places) the left is ascendent while in so many other countries, even more conventionally leftist ones, the right has recently come near or actually into power. Obviously the same global political trends happening in the UK, Australia, Italy, Uruguay and Poland and on and on are at work here, too, but the fact that Israel still has a meaningfully competitive center-left in a global milieu like this is perhaps a small miracle. I think that is less about the left or the right in Israel than about the catastrophic influence Netanyahu is having on the right wing, but I suppose the fact that one of the world's strongest right wings is letting itself implode to protect one morally questionable man from prosecution for serious felonies is actually not believable. Of all the places in the world, Israel is one where the left shouldn't be so resurgent. As much as I would love to see this phenomenon copy-pasted in the US, Hungary, and Brazil, the truth is that bad (and probably much worse than Netanyahu) leadership is not necessary crippling the autocratic right in those places.

I don’t know what left is ascending. B&W is centrist at best with edges on both sides, but it’s a left party and the 4 chiefs especially are pretty right wing

In what way is Gantz right wing?

[Silent Hunter]

He's an ex-IDF Chief of Staff for one thing.

[Hnv1]

Can I also just say how mindbogglingly weird it is that in Israel (of all places) the left is ascendent while in so many other countries, even more conventionally leftist ones, the right has recently come near or actually into power. Obviously the same global political trends happening in the UK, Australia, Italy, Uruguay and Poland and on and on are at work here, too, but the fact that Israel still has a meaningfully competitive center-left in a global milieu like this is perhaps a small miracle. I think that is less about the left or the right in Israel than about the catastrophic influence Netanyahu is having on the right wing, but I suppose the fact that one of the world's strongest right wings is letting itself implode to protect one morally questionable man from prosecution for serious felonies is actually not believable. Of all the places in the world, Israel is one where the left shouldn't be so resurgent. As much as I would love to see this phenomenon copy-pasted in the US, Hungary, and Brazil, the truth is that bad (and probably much worse than Netanyahu) leadership is not necessary crippling the autocratic right in those places.

I don’t know what left is ascending. B&W is centrist at best with edges on both sides, but it’s a left party and the 4 chiefs especially are pretty right wing

In what way is Gantz right wing?

In what way is he left wing?

[Walmart_shopper]

Can I also just say how mindbogglingly weird it is that in Israel (of all places) the left is ascendent while in so many other countries, even more conventionally leftist ones, the right has recently come near or actually into power. Obviously the same global political trends happening in the UK, Australia, Italy, Uruguay and Poland and on and on are at work here, too, but the fact that Israel still has a meaningfully competitive center-left in a global milieu like this is perhaps a small miracle. I think that is less about the left or the right in Israel than about the catastrophic influence Netanyahu is having on the right wing, but I suppose the fact that one of the world's strongest right wings is letting itself implode to protect one morally questionable man from prosecution for serious felonies is actually not believable. Of all the places in the world, Israel is one where the left shouldn't be so resurgent. As much as I would love to see this phenomenon copy-pasted in the US, Hungary, and Brazil, the truth is that bad (and probably much worse than Netanyahu) leadership is not necessary crippling the autocratic right in those places.

I don’t know what left is ascending. B&W is centrist at best with edges on both sides, but it’s a left party and the 4 chiefs especially are pretty right wing

In what way is Gantz right wing?

In what way is he left wing?

He believes in a broadly liberal and democratic society that is carefully protective of minorities and favors a cooperative and open politics over a rigid and religious ideological politics. He supports a robust and politically independent judiciary, a non clerical state, and a conciliatory approach to the Palestinians.

This is today's center-left in Israel. Yiu can compare our center left with the center left in other countries or our own center left decades ago. But in Israel today these ideas define the left and not the right.

[Walmart_shopper]

He's an ex-IDF Chief of Staff for one thing.

IDF leadership is well known for being a preserve of left-leaning Rabin-clones. In Israel military leadership makes you more and not less likely to be a leftist.

[Hnv1]

Can I also just say how mindbogglingly weird it is that in Israel (of all places) the left is ascendent while in so many other countries, even more conventionally leftist ones, the right has recently come near or actually into power. Obviously the same global political trends happening in the UK, Australia, Italy, Uruguay and Poland and on and on are at work here, too, but the fact that Israel still has a meaningfully competitive center-left in a global milieu like this is perhaps a small miracle. I think that is less about the left or the right in Israel than about the catastrophic influence Netanyahu is having on the right wing, but I suppose the fact that one of the world's strongest right wings is letting itself implode to protect one morally questionable man from prosecution for serious felonies is actually not believable. Of all the places in the world, Israel is one where the left shouldn't be so resurgent. As much as I would love to see this phenomenon copy-pasted in the US, Hungary, and Brazil, the truth is that bad (and probably much worse than Netanyahu) leadership is not necessary crippling the autocratic right in those places.

I don’t know what left is ascending. B&W is centrist at best with edges on both sides, but it’s a left party and the 4 chiefs especially are pretty right wing

In what way is Gantz right wing?

In what way is he left wing?

He believes in a broadly liberal and democratic society that is carefully protective of minorities and favors a cooperative and open politics over a rigid and religious ideological politics. He supports a robust and politically independent judiciary, a non clerical state, and a conciliatory approach to the Palestinians.

This is today's center-left in Israel. Yiu can compare our center left with the center left in other countries or our own center left decades ago. But in Israel today these ideas define the left and not the right.

How is he different from Rivlin, Hanegbi and other moderate right wingers?

[jaymichaud]

He's an ex-IDF Chief of Staff for one thing.

I mean then you could say Amir Peretz and Ehud Barak are right-wing because they sat as defence ministers. You could say Tzipi is a right-winger because of her heavy hand in Operation Cast Lead. It’s really nothing to go by.

[Walmart_shopper]

Can I also just say how mindbogglingly weird it is that in Israel (of all places) the left is ascendent while in so many other countries, even more conventionally leftist ones, the right has recently come near or actually into power. Obviously the same global political trends happening in the UK, Australia, Italy, Uruguay and Poland and on and on are at work here, too, but the fact that Israel still has a meaningfully competitive center-left in a global milieu like this is perhaps a small miracle. I think that is less about the left or the right in Israel than about the catastrophic influence Netanyahu is having on the right wing, but I suppose the fact that one of the world's strongest right wings is letting itself implode to protect one morally questionable man from prosecution for serious felonies is actually not believable. Of all the places in the world, Israel is one where the left shouldn't be so resurgent. As much as I would love to see this phenomenon copy-pasted in the US, Hungary, and Brazil, the truth is that bad (and probably much worse than Netanyahu) leadership is not necessary crippling the autocratic right in those places.

I don’t know what left is ascending. B&W is centrist at best with edges on both sides, but it’s a left party and the 4 chiefs especially are pretty right wing

In what way is Gantz right wing?

In what way is he left wing?

He believes in a broadly liberal and democratic society that is carefully protective of minorities and favors a cooperative and open politics over a rigid and religious ideological politics. He supports a robust and politically independent judiciary, a non clerical state, and a conciliatory approach to the Palestinians.

This is today's center-left in Israel. Yiu can compare our center left with the center left in other countries or our own center left decades ago. But in Israel today these ideas define the left and not the right.

How is he different from Rivlin, Hanegbi and other moderate right wingers?

I don't actually think there is a significant ideological gap between Rabin, Rivlin, and Gantz.  The difference is that when the most crucial political decisions have to be made, the moderate Likudniks lean right (as Kahlon did over and over and over and over) while Gantz seems to lean left.

[Hnv1]

Can I also just say how mindbogglingly weird it is that in Israel (of all places) the left is ascendent while in so many other countries, even more conventionally leftist ones, the right has recently come near or actually into power. Obviously the same global political trends happening in the UK, Australia, Italy, Uruguay and Poland and on and on are at work here, too, but the fact that Israel still has a meaningfully competitive center-left in a global milieu like this is perhaps a small miracle. I think that is less about the left or the right in Israel than about the catastrophic influence Netanyahu is having on the right wing, but I suppose the fact that one of the world's strongest right wings is letting itself implode to protect one morally questionable man from prosecution for serious felonies is actually not believable. Of all the places in the world, Israel is one where the left shouldn't be so resurgent. As much as I would love to see this phenomenon copy-pasted in the US, Hungary, and Brazil, the truth is that bad (and probably much worse than Netanyahu) leadership is not necessary crippling the autocratic right in those places.

I don’t know what left is ascending. B&W is centrist at best with edges on both sides, but it’s a left party and the 4 chiefs especially are pretty right wing

In what way is Gantz right wing?

In what way is he left wing?

He believes in a broadly liberal and democratic society that is carefully protective of minorities and favors a cooperative and open politics over a rigid and religious ideological politics. He supports a robust and politically independent judiciary, a non clerical state, and a conciliatory approach to the Palestinians.

This is today's center-left in Israel. Yiu can compare our center left with the center left in other countries or our own center left decades ago. But in Israel today these ideas define the left and not the right.

How is he different from Rivlin, Hanegbi and other moderate right wingers?

I don't actually think there is a significant ideological gap between Rabin, Rivlin, and Gantz.  The difference is that when the most crucial political decisions have to be made, the moderate Likudniks lean right (as Kahlon did over and over and over and over) while Gantz seems to lean left.

I supposed we need to calibrate our terms for left and right here. I think he leans ‘center’, certainly wouldn’t put him more than an inch to the left of the center

[Walmart_shopper]

Can I also just say how mindbogglingly weird it is that in Israel (of all places) the left is ascendent while in so many other countries, even more conventionally leftist ones, the right has recently come near or actually into power. Obviously the same global political trends happening in the UK, Australia, Italy, Uruguay and Poland and on and on are at work here, too, but the fact that Israel still has a meaningfully competitive center-left in a global milieu like this is perhaps a small miracle. I think that is less about the left or the right in Israel than about the catastrophic influence Netanyahu is having on the right wing, but I suppose the fact that one of the world's strongest right wings is letting itself implode to protect one morally questionable man from prosecution for serious felonies is actually not believable. Of all the places in the world, Israel is one where the left shouldn't be so resurgent. As much as I would love to see this phenomenon copy-pasted in the US, Hungary, and Brazil, the truth is that bad (and probably much worse than Netanyahu) leadership is not necessary crippling the autocratic right in those places.

I don’t know what left is ascending. B&W is centrist at best with edges on both sides, but it’s a left party and the 4 chiefs especially are pretty right wing

In what way is Gantz right wing?

In what way is he left wing?

He believes in a broadly liberal and democratic society that is carefully protective of minorities and favors a cooperative and open politics over a rigid and religious ideological politics. He supports a robust and politically independent judiciary, a non clerical state, and a conciliatory approach to the Palestinians.

This is today's center-left in Israel. Yiu can compare our center left with the center left in other countries or our own center left decades ago. But in Israel today these ideas define the left and not the right.

How is he different from Rivlin, Hanegbi and other moderate right wingers?

I don't actually think there is a significant ideological gap between Rabin, Rivlin, and Gantz.  The difference is that when the most crucial political decisions have to be made, the moderate Likudniks lean right (as Kahlon did over and over and over and over) while Gantz seems to lean left.

I supposed we need to calibrate our terms for left and right here. I think he leans ‘center’, certainly wouldn’t put him more than an inch to the left of the center

Yes, I basically agree and I too lament the fact that the Israeli (and American) left would be considered centrist in a lot of Western countries. But, alas, we have the country and political spectrum we have.

[Hnv1]

MK Haim Katz (and Eti Attia) endorse Saar. This is big as Katz has a large number of likud members he controls

[jaymichaud]

This Likud primary is shaping up to be closer than I thought it would be. I was predicting a slaughter (like 75% Bibi and 25% Sa’ar) but now not so much.

[jaymichaud]

Yisrael HaYom found a new pollster (at last), and here is what they released this morning:

Blue and White 37
Likud 31
Joint List 14
Shas 8
Yisrael Beiteinu 8
UTJ 7
Labor - Gesher 6
New Right 5
 Democratic Camp 4

Left 61
Right 51

Other polling this week showed the left with 58 to 60 (and a healthy lead over the right), and Blue and White with at least a 3 mandate advantage over the Likud. One Maariv poll showed the left dropling to 56 mandates with the Likud down only 2 and both New Right and Jewish Home clearing the threshold. This last poll is definitely the ceiling for the right wing, and the bulk of polling puts the left on the cusp of an outright majority.

Very interesting, because I had a look at this poll and it puts the Jewish Home at 2% and Otzma at 1%, meaning that they'd still fail to win 4 seats if they ever united.

The Jewish Home haven't polled above the threshold since 5th December, and before that it was one poll on 25th November. If this is accurate it'd be the first time the National Religious have had no political representation in Israel's history, right?

[Hnv1]

This Likud primary is shaping up to be closer than I thought it would be. I was predicting a slaughter (like 75% Bibi and 25% Sa’ar) but now not so much.

Sharren Haskel who’s the dream girl for the likud libertarian groups on incels also endorses Saar

[bigic]

If this is accurate it'd be the first time the National Religious have had no political representation in Israel's history, right?

Isn't New Right also a national religious party?

[Walmart_shopper]

If this is accurate it'd be the first time the National Religious have had no political representation in Israel's history, right?

Isn't New Right also a national religious party?

Bennet's project, symbolized in his embrace of Ayelet Shaked, was a modernized national religious party conversant with non-religious segments on the right. He largely failed in that as Jewish Home head and New Right is his own attempt at forging a third way between the messianic right and the secular Jabotinskyite right.

[jaymichaud]

If this is accurate it'd be the first time the National Religious have had no political representation in Israel's history, right?

Isn't New Right also a national religious party?

Bennet's project, symbolized in his embrace of Ayelet Shaked, was a modernized national religious party conversant with non-religious segments on the right. He largely failed in that as Jewish Home head and New Right is his own attempt at forging a third way between the messianic right and the secular Jabotinskyite right.

I was under the impression he was trying to create an Israeli Republican Party, where the white talibangelicals have a lot of influence but aren’t the main focal point of the party.

I wonder if Caroline Glick will run with them again?

[Famous Mortimer]

The Likud is Israel's main National Religious party now so the old NRP and it's descendants are unnecessary

[danny]

Very interesting, because I had a look at this poll and it puts the Jewish Home at 2% and Otzma at 1%, meaning that they'd still fail to win 4 seats if they ever united.

The Jewish Home haven't polled above the threshold since 5th December, and before that it was one poll on 25th November. If this is accurate it'd be the first time the National Religious have had no political representation in Israel's history, right?

The constituent parts of the (former) URP have yet to agree to in what shape and they will run in the elections. until they get it all sorted out I would expect their numbers in the polls to be depressed, since it isn't clear what you would be voting for. If they end up running with something resembling their list from April, I expect the results to be similar.

[Hnv1]

Due to the infighting in the Democratic Camp and Meretz old guard threatening to pushShaffir and Golan back on the list - Shaffir rebranded her Green movements as the Green Party with the threat of running solo pushing both under the threshold

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Due to the infighting in the Democratic Camp and Meretz old guard threatening to pushShaffir and Golan back on the list - Shaffir rebranded her Green movements as the Green Party with the threat of running solo pushing both under the threshold

ffs