Reaganfan
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« on: September 11, 2012, 11:13:35 PM » |
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« edited: September 11, 2012, 11:16:58 PM by Reaganfan »
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It's quite depressing. Obama's massively ahead, the election is over, Romney and Ryan stand no chance.
Of course, that is, until you realize that is untrue. In fact, Obama should be even more worried now than before the convention.
Both Romney and Obama received very slight bounces from their conventions. Romney went up 3-5 pts generally, and Obama went up 3-5 pts, generally. Both of these bounces were less than previous years. I feel as though large convention bounces may be a thing of the past if the current electorate of stagnant politics keeps up.
Regardless, the media has tried to seize this moment to proclaim Romney's campaign as dead in the water, which is obviously not the case.
First, ignore all the polls showing anything different than likely voters. I'm a likely voter. I'm voting. I'd walk barefoot over broken glass to vote. (You can always pick the glass shards out of your bare feet later). Registered voter polls are often not close to the actual result as likely voter polls.
Polls showing likely voters show a much different race, and in fact a much different electorate than those polls which show registered voters.
New polls released today show Obama ahead +1 and another new poll shows Obama ahead +2. In both polls, Obama receives 46% and 48% respectively, and both are within the margin of error. The key is that Obama is nearly always below the 50% threshold in likely voter polls and many times, Romney is closer to that margin than Obama.
Secondly, undecideds continue to be the key to this election. Going back to every election the last 50 years where a President has sought re-election, the challenger, whether he wins or loses, receives a massive percentage of the undecided vote. Indeed, 85% of the undecided votes have gone to the challenger in some of those races. Whether it was winning challengers like Reagan and Clinton, or losing challengers like McGovern, Mondale, Dole and Kerry, then challengers always always always hold the advantage in the undecided vote share.
Third, turnout will be less than 2008. The youth vote will go for Obama but by substantially less margins than in 2008, and combined with decreased turnout, this helps Mitt Romney. Indeed, whether the silent electorate or the low convention viewership on both sides, it's clear that enthusiasm will be the key to turnout. This too, is also a significant advantage-Romney.
Finally, no matter what the poll, overwhelming numbers of Americans believe America is well on the wrong track. No president has ever gotten re-elected in this environment. It doesn't happen. You all know this. It's a fact. It wasn't until the very end of the campaigns of 1980 and 1992 when the negative state of affairs caught up to Presidents Carter and Bush, and 2012 may be the same. Don't be surprised if on Halloween, polls are showing a huge Romney surge.
So I still think Obama can win, but it's advantage: Romney.
P.S. The debates will be crucial.
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