MT-RMG Research: Trump +4 (user search)
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  MT-RMG Research: Trump +4 (search mode)
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Author Topic: MT-RMG Research: Trump +4  (Read 2118 times)
TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,773


« on: October 24, 2020, 12:55:35 PM »

October 15-18
800 likely voters
MoE: 3.5%

In all models:
Someone else 4%
Unsure 0%

Strong Democratic turnout model:
Biden 48%
Trump 48%

Strong Republican turnout model:
Trump 52%
Biden 44%
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TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,773


« Reply #1 on: October 24, 2020, 04:07:53 PM »

A significant boost in Native American turnout from '12 to '16 could easily take a +4 Trump lead to a +2 Trump lead.

Given that the (leaderships of) the three biggest tribes in MT endorsed Daines, that might not have the intended effect on the much more important downballot race. It isn't critical at the presidential level.
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