MT-RMG Research: Trump +4
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November 26, 2021, 06:55:40 PM

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  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
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  2020 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: Likely Voter, TJ in Oregon, YE)
  MT-RMG Research: Trump +4
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Author Topic: MT-RMG Research: Trump +4  (Read 1177 times)
ON Progressive
OntarioProgressive
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« on: October 24, 2020, 11:57:43 AM »

http://politicaliq.com/2020/10/24/mt-trump-50-biden-46/?utm_source=rss&utm_medium=rss&utm_campaign=mt-trump-50-biden-46
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soundchaser
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« Reply #1 on: October 24, 2020, 12:00:45 PM »

I'm tempted to chalk this up to RMG Research not being a very good pollster, but between this and the NYT poll yesterday, things are really not looking great for Trump with white voters.
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forza nocta
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« Reply #2 on: October 24, 2020, 12:00:50 PM »

Iíve seen enough: Im moving Montana to Lean R
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Exopolitician
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« Reply #3 on: October 24, 2020, 12:01:09 PM »

Trump with a small lead in a Rassy poll in MT. 😬
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VAR
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« Reply #4 on: October 24, 2020, 12:02:18 PM »

Well, Daines is up by 2 in the same poll
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #5 on: October 24, 2020, 12:02:51 PM »

Awful for Trump.
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Very Pessimistic 😭😭😭😭 Xing
xingkerui
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« Reply #6 on: October 24, 2020, 12:06:15 PM »

Well, Daines is up by 2 in the same poll

Where? I tried to find the other MT numbers, but it only said "more later this weekend."
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soundchaser
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« Reply #7 on: October 24, 2020, 12:06:37 PM »

Well, Daines is up by 2 in the same poll

Where are you seeing the Senate numbers?
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Georgia Democrat in 2021
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« Reply #8 on: October 24, 2020, 12:06:43 PM »

Bedwetters and doomers will call this close vote in MT as "empty calories" for Biden and project even more despair that he will lose it all.  
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VAR
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« Reply #9 on: October 24, 2020, 12:08:42 PM »

Well, Daines is up by 2 in the same poll

Where? I tried to find the other MT numbers, but it only said "more later this weekend."
Well, Daines is up by 2 in the same poll

Where are you seeing the Senate numbers?

Both polls were conducted Oct. 15-18.
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xingkerui
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« Reply #10 on: October 24, 2020, 12:13:27 PM »

Ah, strange that we're only now getting numbers for the presidential race, but it does look like it's the same poll.
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GeneralMacArthur
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« Reply #11 on: October 24, 2020, 12:15:58 PM »

We're also seeing huge turnout in Montana.  Already 67% of their 2016 turnout and will probably exceed 100% by election day.

I'm optimistic.  Bullock/Tester know this state, they know how to win here.  And they have way more money.  I would be shocked if the Dems don't outperform their polls.
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #12 on: October 24, 2020, 12:18:37 PM »

So the last three polls of MT have been Trump +4, +6 and +7. Not good. He won this by 20 in 2016.
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redjohn
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« Reply #13 on: October 24, 2020, 12:19:13 PM »

Trump probably wins MT by 6-8 points, which is disastrous. We're talking a 14-point swing (and potentially higher) in a state with a competitive Senate race.
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Reapsow
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« Reply #14 on: October 24, 2020, 12:22:09 PM »

Trump probably wins MT by 6-8 points, which is disastrous. We're talking a 14-point swing (and potentially higher) in a state with a competitive Senate race.

#EmptyCalories

Montana will swing hard for Biden but the Rust/Sun Belts will swing Trump, I think is the argument.
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redjohn
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« Reply #15 on: October 24, 2020, 12:24:19 PM »

Trump probably wins MT by 6-8 points, which is disastrous. We're talking a 14-point swing (and potentially higher) in a state with a competitive Senate race.

#EmptyCalories

Montana will swing hard for Biden but the Rust/Sun Belts will swing Trump, I think is the argument.

It's unbelievable. I could buy MT swinging by 14 points and rust belt states swinging by a few points less, but you're obviously not going to see massive swings across swaths of the country while the rust belt somehow withstands the swings against Trump.
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Hnv1
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« Reply #16 on: October 24, 2020, 12:25:17 PM »

This is not the states you need Biden getting votes in...
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redjohn
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« Reply #17 on: October 24, 2020, 12:26:17 PM »

This is not the states you need Biden getting votes in...

Again, if MT swings to Biden by 16 points as this poll would suggest, he's going to see swings towards him in lots of other states across the country, including battlegrounds with similar demographics.
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TopShelfGoal
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« Reply #18 on: October 24, 2020, 12:32:39 PM »

Trump with a small lead in a Rassy poll in MT. 😬


This is a Scott Rasmussen poll not a Rasmussen Reports poll. Scott should probably rebrand the name of his polling firm to avoid getting the stink of Rasmussen Reports on him.
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GeneralMacArthur
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« Reply #19 on: October 24, 2020, 12:34:28 PM »

This is not the states you need Biden getting votes in...

Trump won by 100,000 votes in 2016.  A swing in Biden's favor would only be 50,000 moved votes.  Even if he won the state, it's about as many empty calories as eating a single mini-pretzel.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #20 on: October 24, 2020, 12:37:31 PM »

I frankly don't care how close MT is on the Presidential level; I just want Bullock over the edge. I told you guys he was never going to outperform Biden by much and it would take MT being close on the Presidential, so I guess in that sense I hope it's close. 2018 and the high turnout numbers thus far virtually guarentee Biden will do a lot better than Clinton in the state, the question is will it be enough?
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TheLaRocca
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« Reply #21 on: October 24, 2020, 12:43:48 PM »

Montana is a good bellwether to the non-southern white vote...

Close in 08, Romney in 2012 but still enough to win, a blowout in 2016, and closing in 2020.

Very bad poll for Trump.
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xingkerui
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« Reply #22 on: October 24, 2020, 12:46:59 PM »

Paging MT Treasurer: Should MT be considered Likely R and not Safe R, at this point? Iíd be stunned if Biden actually won MT, but it is looking like itíll swing massively toward the Democrats, even if polls are somewhat off.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #23 on: October 24, 2020, 12:55:35 PM »

October 15-18
800 likely voters
MoE: 3.5%

In all models:
Someone else 4%
Unsure 0%

Strong Democratic turnout model:
Biden 48%
Trump 48%

Strong Republican turnout model:
Trump 52%
Biden 44%
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Exopolitician
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« Reply #24 on: October 24, 2020, 12:57:11 PM »

Trump with a small lead in a Rassy poll in MT. 😬


This is a Scott Rasmussen poll not a Rasmussen Reports poll. Scott should probably rebrand the name of his polling firm to avoid getting the stink of Rasmussen Reports on him.

Ah gotcha. Still, this is a terrible poll for Trump.
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