It looks like Ben is the best UDL candidate to bring in votes from the center.
All well and good assuming he's not just eliminated immediately from low first preferences. I admit that would be a problem for any UDL candidate though, I suppose.
Certainly, though I assume if Ben won the nomination the UDL would unite behind him. While the JCP has more total members, giving Oakvale a paper advantage over his left-wing opponent, the UDL has a larger number of active participants which would, in this scenario, make it a Ben vs. Tmth election.
Tmth isn't going anywhere. Even assuming there's a race between JCP and UDL for second place at this point, Tmth is going to end up in the final round no matter what. No Tmth supporter who says they would second preference Ben matters in the slightest, because he wouldn't see any benefit to him.
Oakvale voters that second preference him instead of me, is a legitimate point, but throughout this race the JCP seems like they keep saying that they will support the UDL candidate, for the most part, for second preferences. (Whether they actually do this or not, of course, remains to be seen.) But I don't think serious left-wing voters would choose Tmth over me unless there were personal reasons involved.
Assuming for the sake of argument that UDL voters unite behind either Ben, or I, which is an impossible assumption to make at this point, I don't think the end result between Ben and I for extra second preferences will be more than a few votes. Which matters and all, but, let's just remember for now, Atlasian polling has a terrible accuracy rating.
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