New Tradesports rankings (user search)
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Author Topic: New Tradesports rankings  (Read 184000 times)
ag
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« on: March 26, 2007, 11:39:35 AM »

so mike bloomberg is 7 times more likely to be teh gop nominee than chris dodd is to be the dem nominee?

umm.  no.

Relative pricing of near-zero probability events is not likely to be reliable. For starters, what's the volume there? And, in any case, the price differences are pretty small in absolute terms.  I would say that, for all practical intents and purposes, both are (correctly, in my opinion) viewed as having pretty much zero chance of winning their parties' nomination. I would disregard pretty much all numbers below 4 or 5 as just noise.
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ag
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« Reply #1 on: December 27, 2007, 07:36:15 PM »

Huckabee vs. McCain seems very similar to Bush vs. McCain.

Except McCain would be the establishment candidate.
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