AZ, OH, WI (Fox) - Biden +4, +2, +9

[GeorgiaModerate]

I’m going to say right now that Biden number in Wisconsin is probably right, but Trump’s is not.

Agreed.  Biden up by 9 in Wisconsin would be shocking.  But I'm starting to think that it's looking like Lean D there.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Trump Approval

AZ: 44/54 (-10)

OH: 50/48 (+2)

WI: 45/54 (-9)

The AZ numbers are actually 46/52:

11. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as president? [IF
 APPROVE / DISAPPROVE: Is that strongly (approve/disapprove), or only somewhat?]
 -------------Approve------------- ----------Disapprove---------- (Don’t
TOTAL Strongly Somewhat TOTAL Somewhat Strongly know)
30 May-2 Jun 20 46% 28 17 52 11 41 2

[GeorgiaModerate]

I buy those Arizona numbers. I think Biden is currently up in Wisconsin, but not by that much and I'm not convinced he pulls it off in November. I'm skeptical of the Ohio numbers but I'd love to be wrong about that.

The margin for Wisconsin is barely more than twice the margin of error. The tipping-point state of 2016 looks at this point like a disaster for the President. Arizona (and if Trump is losing both Arizona and Wisconsin he needs to pick off Pennsylvania or perhaps Michigan and New Hampshire to compensate -- neither of which is likely) is at the margin of error. Ohio is within the margin of error, and Trump still has slightly-better-than-even approval in Ohio.

Here is how I see the states "falling" to Biden:


NH 232
MI 248
PA 268
WI 278
AZ 289
IA  295
NC 310
FL  349
NE-02  350
OH  368
ME-02  369
GA 385
TX  423

OK, Wisconsin could be a current exaggeration because events in a neighboring state are center-stage... but that also puts Iowa in play if these Wisconsin numbers stick.

We may be seeing a Trump collapse.

Florida has 29 EV, not 39.