AZ, OH, WI (Fox) - Biden +4, +2, +9

[Lisa's voting Biden]

Arizona
Biden - 46
Trump - 42

Ohio
Biden - 45
Trump - 43

Wisconsin
Biden - 49
Trump - 40

1002, 803, 801 RV, May 30-June 2

https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2020/06/35199d36-Fox_May-30-June-2-2020_Complete_Arizona_Topline_June-3-Release.pdf
https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2020/06/Fox_May-30-June-2-2020_Complete_Ohio_Topline_June-3-Release.pdf
https://static.foxnews.com/foxnews.com/content/uploads/2020/06/Fox_May-30-June-2-2020_Complete_Wisconsin_Topline_June-3-Release.pdf

[Gass3268]

I’m going to say right now that Biden number in Wisconsin is probably right, but Trump’s is not.

[JRP1994]

[Lisa's voting Biden]

Kelly is ahead in the AZ senate race by 13 (50-37) BTW.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I’m going to say right now that Biden number in Wisconsin is probably right, but Trump’s is not.

Agreed.  Biden up by 9 in Wisconsin would be shocking.  But I'm starting to think that it's looking like Lean D there.

[Stockdale for Veep]

If Ohio is determined to keep its winning streak alive...

[Yank2133]

So who is the true Blanche Lincoln of 2020, McSally or Gardner? I still lean Gardner.

[Lisa's voting Biden]

If Ohio is determined to keep its winning streak alive...

OH is an underrated flip opportunity. Out of all the 11 OH polls vs Biden so far, Trump has only led in two of them.

[Zaybay]

Trump Approval

AZ: 46/54 (-8)

OH: 50/48 (+2)

WI: 45/54 (-9)

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

I buy those Arizona numbers. I think Biden is currently up in Wisconsin, but not by that much and I'm not convinced he pulls it off in November. I'm skeptical of the Ohio numbers but I'd love to be wrong about that.

[libertpaulian]

Democrats, time to start spending in Ohio.

[Devout Centrist]

Does Fox weigh by education?

[WD]

The way people talk about Ohio you would think Trump was leading by 15 points.

[wbrocks67]

Arizona polls consistently show a huge leftward lurch towards the Dems. Trumps approval is consistently bad there (this approval # lines up with the Civiqs tracker too)

I don't think people can keep saying that the senate race is a tossup either anymore. Kelly has now led in multiple polls by DOUBLE digits. McSally might get triaged rather soon.

[Zaybay]

Biden has pretty high favorability numbers across the board. Trump, meanwhile.....

AZ:
Biden 49/47
Trump 44/54

OH:
Biden 49/47
Trump 48/51

WI:
Biden 52/44
Trump 43/55

[Gass3268]

I buy those Arizona numbers. I think Biden is currently up in Wisconsin, but not by that much and I'm not convinced he pulls it off in November. I'm skeptical of the Ohio numbers but I'd love to be wrong about that.

My guess is Trump wins Ohio by a margin slightly smaller than DeWine's.

[wbrocks67]

Wowzers - in Wisconsin, the most excited voters give Biden a +15 margin! So much for the "enthusiasm gap"

Voters extremely interested in the election give Biden a 15-point lead over Trump (55-40 percent).

In addition, more Biden supporters (71 percent) than Trump supporters (63 percent) are extremely motivated to vote in the election.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Crosstab health warning, but funny enough to post anyway:
https://twitter.com/NilesGApol/status/1268310818296401920

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Okay, those are some eye-catching numbers.

Into the average they go.

[CellarDoor]

Wowzers - in Wisconsin, the most excited voters give Biden a +15 margin! So much for the "enthusiasm gap"

Voters extremely interested in the election give Biden a 15-point lead over Trump (55-40 percent).

In addition, more Biden supporters (71 percent) than Trump supporters (63 percent) are extremely motivated to vote in the election.

The "enthusiasm" gap was always an overstated talking point.  You have to phrase the question correctly.  If you simply ask respondents whether they are enthusiastic to vote for candidate "X", that is completely different from first asking someone if they are enthusiastic to vote, and then asking them who they support.  Voting against someone/something can make someone just as enthusiastic as voting for someone/something.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Amazing! This country is going to wash away the orange stain that unfortunately infected this country! November 3rd can't come soon enough!

[wbrocks67]

I buy those Arizona numbers. I think Biden is currently up in Wisconsin, but not by that much and I'm not convinced he pulls it off in November. I'm skeptical of the Ohio numbers but I'd love to be wrong about that.

...youre not convinced Biden will win Wisconsin? None of the evidence really points to him losing right now...

[GeorgiaModerate]

Trump Approval

AZ: 44/54 (-10)

OH: 50/48 (+2)

WI: 45/54 (-9)

The AZ numbers are actually 46/52:

11. Do you approve or disapprove of the job Donald Trump is doing as president? [IF
 APPROVE / DISAPPROVE: Is that strongly (approve/disapprove), or only somewhat?]
 -------------Approve------------- ----------Disapprove---------- (Don’t
TOTAL Strongly Somewhat TOTAL Somewhat Strongly know)
30 May-2 Jun 20 46% 28 17 52 11 41 2

[NOVA Green]

WOW!

Fox Polling is generally pretty respected....

Maybe all of these older White Trump Voters are too busy watching the news to answer their phones right now or boycotting polls because of the "fake news" they are seeing on a daily basis, which clearly is biased against Trump's response to the most recent crisis, while simultaneously COVID-19 is real....



We can throw this in the average if we want, but I should also note that Ohio, Arizona, and Wisconsin have all experienced massive protests in past days throughout those States, with early on incidents of massive confrontations in some localities, shifting more towards sustained and growing primarily peaceful demonstrations, including the involvement of the children and grand-children of older residents of these states.

[Horsemask]

My goodness, that's pretty solid.