MN 2022 Gov Race Megathread

[neostassenite31]

Despite the leftward swing MN will end up with a PVI of EVEN after this election. An EVEN seat in a midterm with a D White House would normally start out as a Tossup, but given that this is the Minnesota GOP that we're talking about I'd rate this seat as a Lean or Likely D to start off with if Lindell gets the nomination.

The point is that no sane person can expect the Minnesota Republican Party to be able to actually accomplish anything as a political organization at this point, regardless of what election cycle it is. These people make even the FL Dems look competent

[neostassenite31]

Any Republican running for statewide office in MN is always confronted with a major dilemma.

Trump easily outperforms every other Republican in 40% of the state by double digits (Greater Minnesota). Even Jason Lewis, who was on the same ballot as Trump this year, could not match Trump's margins in most of Greater Minnesota. Running away from Trump would seem like a very bad idea in regards to winning over these voters.

However, Trump is also deeply unpopular in the seven county Twin Cities area, so much so that he did significantly worse than Jason Lewis, who some people would argue lost the senate race because he attached himself to Trump so closely that it caused him to do worse in the metro area than a more generic or downballot Republican candidate. Going full on Trumpster is clearly not going to work well in this part of the state.

Joe Biden and his performance as president is going to be the ultimate moderating factor in the suburbs that will decide the election, even if the GOP gubernatorial candidate runs on a platform that consists exclusively of a resume detailing their career as a senior MAGA cultist and conspiracy theorist, since whatever negative effects it will have in the metro will be mostly offset by a slightly smaller advantage in Greater MN, with the remaining excess being at the mercy of even slight suburban swings.  

[neostassenite31]

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/jan/15/mike-lindell-mypillow-trump-white-house-martial-law

Aaaannnnnddddd he’s done.

My prediction now moves from lean D to likely D, and that’s assuming he survives the primaries.

Knowing the Republican party at this point, wouldn't be surprised if this helps him there.

The Democratic attack ads in the general are going to be brutal.

[neostassenite31]

My guess is that Lindell would lose by ~10-15%, which seems to be the "generic" winning margin for an incumbent Democrat in Minnesota. A result that looks something like 53% Walz-43% Lindell-4% Other would be plausible.

We are not that crazy here in the land of 10,000 lakes. Lindell would lose by at least the 24 points Amy Klobuchar won by last time she ran. Lindell would also be extremely unlikely to win a Republican primary, even Minnesota Republicans are not crazy enough to nominate someone who is certifiably nuts.

Klobuchar has a personal vote, there's a deep hatred for Walz in much of outstate. He's still overall popular and would easily crush Lindell, but not pull of those margins.

Also think Lindell would win the primary if he ran, which he won't now being deplatformed and suffering all these lawsuits. It's not like Scott Jensen is a particularly great candidate who would appeal to swing voters either.

Paul Gazelka is odds on favorite to be the Republican nominee. Won't be much of a challenge for Walz but will do better than nuts like Lindell and Jensen.

Is he running? Seems odd to give up his State Senate seat and leadership role for such a longshot. Unless he doesn't want to deal with the State Senate anymore.

It makes no sense for him to quit a relatively safe job for this gubernatorial bid, unless he did some private polling that show him to be at least relatively competitive with Walz. As his many deals with Walz and Hortman clearly show, Gazelka isn't reckless

[neostassenite31]

My guess is that Lindell would lose by ~10-15%, which seems to be the "generic" winning margin for an incumbent Democrat in Minnesota. A result that looks something like 53% Walz-43% Lindell-4% Other would be plausible.

We are not that crazy here in the land of 10,000 lakes. Lindell would lose by at least the 24 points Amy Klobuchar won by last time she ran. Lindell would also be extremely unlikely to win a Republican primary, even Minnesota Republicans are not crazy enough to nominate someone who is certifiably nuts.

Klobuchar has a personal vote, there's a deep hatred for Walz in much of outstate. He's still overall popular and would easily crush Lindell, but not pull of those margins.

Also think Lindell would win the primary if he ran, which he won't now being deplatformed and suffering all these lawsuits. It's not like Scott Jensen is a particularly great candidate who would appeal to swing voters either.

Paul Gazelka is odds on favorite to be the Republican nominee. Won't be much of a challenge for Walz but will do better than nuts like Lindell and Jensen.

Is he running? Seems odd to give up his State Senate seat and leadership role for such a longshot. Unless he doesn't want to deal with the State Senate anymore.

It makes no sense for him to quit a relatively safe job for this gubernatorial bid, unless he did some private polling that show him to be at least relatively competitive with Walz. As his many deals with Walz and Hortman clearly show, Gazelka isn't reckless

Well he actually just announced he's stepping down from his State Senate leadership role a few days ago. So whether he runs or not the most likely explanation is that he's tired of that role.

The quasi-permanent state of divided government in this state could no doubt tire out any politco, although what I heard was that most of the state Senate GOP conference wanted him to step down if he intends to run for governor, since both the actual MAGA faction and moderates in his conference don't really like him and think it would be an unfair advantage for him to run while maintaining his position as majority leader

[neostassenite31]

Latest poll from Change Research (D firm) released just last week shows Walz to be quite vulnerable actually:

Walz approval rating:
44% approve (Independents: 31%)
48% disapprove (Independents: 48%)

Voting intention:
Tim Walz (D-incumbent) 44%
Generic Republican 41%
(Walz +3% result)

Change Research (D)
08/28/21 - 08/31/21
N=1945

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kJVx9MGMRyi2O3Gl4Z4OG7ekb_D860bIpZWBsje73Yo/edit#gid=1849982607

Looks like Gazelka might not be such a fool after all

[neostassenite31]

Latest poll from Change Research (D firm) released just last week shows Walz to be quite vulnerable actually:

Walz approval rating:
44% approve (Independents: 31%)
48% disapprove (Independents: 48%)

Voting intention:
Tim Walz (D-incumbent) 44%
Generic Republican 41%
(Walz +3% result)

Change Research (D)
08/28/21 - 08/31/21
N=1945

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kJVx9MGMRyi2O3Gl4Z4OG7ekb_D860bIpZWBsje73Yo/edit#gid=1849982607

Looks like Gazelka might not be such a fool after all

I'd put more stock in this poll if Generic Republican was an actual candidate and we weren't still a year out from the election.

Well, the poll also finds that fully 43% of Minnesotans think Trump actually won the 2020 election (this is coming from a Democratic polling outfit).

Walz's favorability is not just underwater, but almost 40% of voters in Hennepin and Ramsey County disapprove of him (which if translated into votes is essentially a Bush vs. Kerry 2004 level partisan breakdown). His disapproval in Greater Minnesota also stands at around 60%, which by how it's defined would mean he could perform worse than Hilary Clinton 2016 in rural MN.

Also, just look at Scott Jensen's approval rating: 49% approve with just 3%(!!!) disapprove?! Seriously, the DFL will have to do a MUCH, MUCH better job at defining this guy or else we could be staring down at a total nightmore next fall

[neostassenite31]

Latest poll from Change Research (D firm) released just last week shows Walz to be quite vulnerable actually:

Walz approval rating:
44% approve (Independents: 31%)
48% disapprove (Independents: 48%)

Voting intention:
Tim Walz (D-incumbent) 44%
Generic Republican 41%
(Walz +3% result)

Change Research (D)
08/28/21 - 08/31/21
N=1945

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1kJVx9MGMRyi2O3Gl4Z4OG7ekb_D860bIpZWBsje73Yo/edit#gid=1849982607

Looks like Gazelka might not be such a fool after all

I'd put more stock in this poll if Generic Republican was an actual candidate and we weren't still a year out from the election.

Well, the poll also finds that fully 43% of Minnesotans think Trump actually won the 2020 election (this is coming from a Democratic polling outfit).

Walz's favorability is not just underwater, but almost 40% of voters in Hennepin and Ramsey County disapprove of him (which if translated into votes is essentially a Bush vs. Kerry 2004 level partisan breakdown). His disapproval in Greater Minnesota also stands at around 60%, which by how it's defined would mean he could perform worse than Hilary Clinton 2016 in rural MN.

Also, just look at Scott Jensen's approval rating: 49% approve with just 3%(!!!) disapprove?! Seriously, the DFL will have to do a MUCH, MUCH better job at defining this guy or else we could be staring down at a total nightmore next fall

Nonsense. I mean, 49% of no one knows who Scott Jensen is. But the broader point is this: 2022 will be a referendum on Roe and Reefer. Is the MN GOP equipped to win such an election? With paltry resources in the midst of a sex trafficking scandal? Probably not.

If there ever was one saving grace in MN politics as far as Democrats are concerned over the windy years of the past decade, it was the tireless work of our wonderous and most dear friends over at the state Republican "organization". Maybe they would be kind enough to go bankrupt and get evicted from their HQ a second time, this time a few months closer to the November election!  

[neostassenite31]

The 2021 fundraising numbers are in and, well, it's business as usual in Minnesota this cycle, at least financially.

Republican Party of Minnesota:
Total raised in 2021-2022: $1,637,844
Cash on Hand: $132,027

Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party:
Total raised in 2021-2022: $4,188,545
Cash on Hand: $1,430,881 (Ouch)

Looks like the MNGOP is going to get buried under a mountain of DFL cash again this year. The Walz campaign itself also raised closed to $4 million just last year. National Republican PACs and the RGA will really need to step in if they want to prevent whoever the GOP end up nominating against Walz from getting buried likewise.

http://www.opensecrets.org/political-action-committees-pacs/republican-party-of-minnesota/C00001313/summary/2022
https://www.opensecrets.org/political-action-committees-pacs/C00025254/summary/2022

[neostassenite31]

https://twitter.com/thauserkstp/status/1489013101240406023

Jensen trails Walz by just 3 points with 13% undecided. He outperforms every other GOP candidate as well

[neostassenite31]

Latest fundraising figures from Q1 2022 show Walz essentially burying all of his GOP challengers under an avalanche of cash:

Cash on Hand by candidate at the end of Q1 2022:
Scott Jensen - $774K
Paul Gazelka - $406K
Kendall Qualls - $168K
Richard Stanek - $40K
Tim Walz - $4.1M

https://www.duluthnewstribune.com/news/minnesota/with-4-1m-walz-holds-significant-fundraising-advantage-over-gop-challengers

Also, as a sidenote, the DFL outraised the MNGOP by 50 to 1 this quarter:

Total raised by party:
Minnesota DFL - $2,304,897
Republican Party of Minnesota - $45,680

Yep, that's a difference of 50-fold, just let that sink in for a moment.

https://cfb.mn.gov/reports-and-data/viewers/campaign-finance/party-unit/20003/2020/
https://cfb.mn.gov/reports-and-data/viewers/campaign-finance/party-unit/20008/2020/
(Under the "Results and data" tab -> 2022 1st Quarter Report)

[neostassenite31]

Also what's funny is that Woodbury mayor is a pretty weak position, it's the largest "non-chartered" city in Minnesota, which means that the local government can't really do anything on its own and needs to ask the state legislature for permission.

I think what BRTD meant is that Woodbury, being a statutory city, operates under a weak mayor-council system (which is essentially forced onto the city by the statutory city code in MN state law due of the lack of a city charter), and so that's why the mayor doesn't really have much unilateral local authority to do anything.  

[neostassenite31]

https://twitter.com/StarTribune/status/1520518857697501186
A bit dated, but some fun stuff here in case you missed it

[neostassenite31]

Jensen gets endorsement from RonJon and proudly describes his many "accomplishments"

https://twitter.com/drscottjensen/status/1524042570095108097?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoo...

[neostassenite31]

Is the GOP going to win anything down ballot this year? The party simply died in MN over the past 15 years.

The state senate and state house are both almost guaranteed to end up in GOP hands. Anyone who believe otherwise are either delusional or kidding themselves. Walz is the only thing standing between this crowd and a total takeover in St Paul and turning the state into some version of Alabama/Missouri etc.

[neostassenite31]

Is the GOP going to win anything down ballot this year? The party simply died in MN over the past 15 years.

The state senate and state house are both almost guaranteed to end up in GOP hands. Anyone who believe otherwise are either delusional or kidding themselves. Walz is the only thing standing between this crowd and a total takeover in St Paul and turning the state into some version of Alabama/Missouri etc.

Wrong (And I am neither delusional or kidding myself). Guaranteed? LOL. It's a possibility but it's also a possibility Dems win both. People on this board are way to sure what is going to happen.

I genuinely wish I have your confidence and faith. I know defeatism is not a valid approach to the campaign season, especially since it hasn't even started

[neostassenite31]

https://twitter.com/StarTribune/status/1570754372837036032

A new Mason-Dixon poll is imminent. Let's see if it corroborates the result from the Walz +17/+18 SurveyUSA and Gravis polls