IA - Siena College/NYT Upshot: Ernst +1%

[Don Vito Corleone]

This man is a prophet:

I can't wait until she makes some "gaffe" that only Dem hacks care about like in 2014 (or like Cramer's "Akin comments" this year) and everyone moves it to toss up/lean D.

(Yes, Ernst could lose, but seat 49 or 50 for Democrats this is not.)

By what possible definition are you counting a prediction that had this race being an easy win for Rs as being prophetic when the race is very obviously not an easy win.