Rasmussen Tracking Poll [Obama vs McCain]

[riceowl]

weekend bounce!

[Nym90]

This is bad news for Obama. 

Yes, he should be ahead. When you add in the Bradley effect, McCain actually leads.

Plus the undecideds will break 90-10 to McCain.

[J. J.]

Bad week and it's a tie.  I'll take it.

[Sam Spade]

I posted a commentary yesterday, but things are becoming more clear now, so my mind is clearer, so to speak. 

The sudden movements and shifts in this race are becoming pretty easily explainable, at least as far as I can tell.  Two things are occurring:

1) Decay from McCain's convention bounce (as noticeable in Rasmussen)

2) A pretty strong shift in party ID, owed to one of two factors: 1) Decay from the Republican Convention or 2) economic crisis.  Given Gallup's movement (which is the best firm in measuring these things) pre and post-economic crisis, my best guess is that the latter is making the stronger impact.

The combination of these two things leads us from getting McCain +3 to +5 results last week to us seeing Obama +3 to +5 results this week.

Also, it is important now to remember the rules concerning party ID.  Party ID shifts because one of two things is occurring: 1) Republicans in the sample are choosing to ID as Indys, Indys choose to identify as Dems, and so on and so forth or 2) Republicans start becoming less likely to answer phone calls or get past LV screens.  It is impossible to tell at this point which of the two is stronger in occurrence right now, though I have my reasons (based on looking at the national polls) to think that it is the latter.

One other point:  Right now, we are in the middle of the storm.  Based on what I see, it's going to take, at minimum, until next Monday before we have a completely clear picture, maybe not until next Thursday, depending on the continuance of the economic crisis.

As such, I expect Gallup to be at least Obama +4 or +5 today.

[Eraserhead]

I posted a commentary yesterday, but things are becoming more clear now, so my mind is clearer, so to speak. 

The sudden movements and shifts in this race are becoming pretty easily explainable, at least as far as I can tell.  Two things are occurring:

1) Decay from McCain's convention bounce (as noticeable in Rasmussen)

2) A pretty strong shift in party ID, owed to one of two factors: 1) Decay from the Republican Convention or 2) economic crisis.  Given Gallup's movement (which is the best firm in measuring these things) pre and post-economic crisis, my best guess is that the latter is making the stronger impact.

The combination of these two things leads us from getting McCain +3 to +5 results last week to us seeing Obama +3 to +5 results this week.

Also, it is important now to remember the rules concerning party ID.  Party ID shifts because one of two things is occurring: 1) Republicans in the sample are choosing to ID as Indys, Indys choose to identify as Dems, and so on and so forth or 2) Republicans start becoming less likely to answer phone calls or get past LV screens.  It is impossible to tell at this point which of the two is stronger in occurrence right now, though I have my reasons (based on looking at the national polls) to think that it is the latter.

One other point:  Right now, we are in the middle of the storm.  Based on what I see, it's going to take, at minimum, until next Monday before we have a completely clear picture, maybe not until next Thursday, depending on the continuance of the economic crisis.

As such, I expect Gallup to be at least Obama +4 or +5 today.

I doubt it. I hope I'm wrong though.

[Sam Spade]

I posted a commentary yesterday, but things are becoming more clear now, so my mind is clearer, so to speak. 

The sudden movements and shifts in this race are becoming pretty easily explainable, at least as far as I can tell.  Two things are occurring:

1) Decay from McCain's convention bounce (as noticeable in Rasmussen)

2) A pretty strong shift in party ID, owed to one of two factors: 1) Decay from the Republican Convention or 2) economic crisis.  Given Gallup's movement (which is the best firm in measuring these things) pre and post-economic crisis, my best guess is that the latter is making the stronger impact.

The combination of these two things leads us from getting McCain +3 to +5 results last week to us seeing Obama +3 to +5 results this week.

Also, it is important now to remember the rules concerning party ID.  Party ID shifts because one of two things is occurring: 1) Republicans in the sample are choosing to ID as Indys, Indys choose to identify as Dems, and so on and so forth or 2) Republicans start becoming less likely to answer phone calls or get past LV screens.  It is impossible to tell at this point which of the two is stronger in occurrence right now, though I have my reasons (based on looking at the national polls) to think that it is the latter.

One other point:  Right now, we are in the middle of the storm.  Based on what I see, it's going to take, at minimum, until next Monday before we have a completely clear picture, maybe not until next Thursday, depending on the continuance of the economic crisis.

As such, I expect Gallup to be at least Obama +4 or +5 today.

I doubt it. I hope I'm wrong though.

Why not?  Unless there are more bailouts/bankruptcies to come in the next few days, yesterday's sample should fundamentally be the worst one for McCain.  Additionally, the last *mildly* pro-McCain sample drops off today.

Keep in mind, though, that if I thought Obama had "closed the deal" with regards to the economy (which the numbers do not in any way show), you would be seeing me talk about a *permanent* shift, rather than saying to wait until next week.

[Nutmeg]

if my son ever shopped at wal-mart i would beat the wal-mart out of him with my belt

which was purchased at Wal*Mart.

[ChrisFromNJ]

Keep in mind that Rasmussen doesn't show polling shifts to candidates as quickly as Gallup does. McCain's convention bounce is a good example of this.

[J. J.]

I posted a commentary yesterday, but things are becoming more clear now, so my mind is clearer, so to speak. 

The sudden movements and shifts in this race are becoming pretty easily explainable, at least as far as I can tell.  Two things are occurring:

1) Decay from McCain's convention bounce (as noticeable in Rasmussen)

2) A pretty strong shift in party ID, owed to one of two factors: 1) Decay from the Republican Convention or 2) economic crisis.  Given Gallup's movement (which is the best firm in measuring these things) pre and post-economic crisis, my best guess is that the latter is making the stronger impact.

The combination of these two things leads us from getting McCain +3 to +5 results last week to us seeing Obama +3 to +5 results this week.

Also, it is important now to remember the rules concerning party ID.  Party ID shifts because one of two things is occurring: 1) Republicans in the sample are choosing to ID as Indys, Indys choose to identify as Dems, and so on and so forth or 2) Republicans start becoming less likely to answer phone calls or get past LV screens.  It is impossible to tell at this point which of the two is stronger in occurrence right now, though I have my reasons (based on looking at the national polls) to think that it is the latter.

One other point:  Right now, we are in the middle of the storm.  Based on what I see, it's going to take, at minimum, until next Monday before we have a completely clear picture, maybe not until next Thursday, depending on the continuance of the economic crisis.

As such, I expect Gallup to be at least Obama +4 or +5 today.

I doubt it. I hope I'm wrong though.

Why not?  Unless there are more bailouts/bankruptcies to come in the next few days, yesterday's sample should fundamentally be the worst one for McCain.  Additionally, the last *mildly* pro-McCain sample drops off today.

Keep in mind, though, that if I thought Obama had "closed the deal" with regards to the economy (which the numbers do not in any way show), you would be seeing me talk about a *permanent* shift, rather than saying to wait until next week.

My guess is it's 3-5 on Gallup, which is showing +4 Obama, probably due to the financial markets.  Some of Obama's lead on Gallup is probably being suppressed by the midweek bounce.

[Sam Spade]

Keep in mind that Rasmussen doesn't show polling shifts to candidates as quickly as Gallup does. McCain's convention bounce is a good example of this.

Quite frankly, that's incorrect.  They show polling shifts at the same time, but since Rasmussen hard-weights his party ID, his shifts will never be as great unless the shift has nothing to do with party ID movement.

What did I predict today for Gallup again? 

[Sam Spade]

I posted a commentary yesterday, but things are becoming more clear now, so my mind is clearer, so to speak. 

The sudden movements and shifts in this race are becoming pretty easily explainable, at least as far as I can tell.  Two things are occurring:

1) Decay from McCain's convention bounce (as noticeable in Rasmussen)

2) A pretty strong shift in party ID, owed to one of two factors: 1) Decay from the Republican Convention or 2) economic crisis.  Given Gallup's movement (which is the best firm in measuring these things) pre and post-economic crisis, my best guess is that the latter is making the stronger impact.

The combination of these two things leads us from getting McCain +3 to +5 results last week to us seeing Obama +3 to +5 results this week.

Also, it is important now to remember the rules concerning party ID.  Party ID shifts because one of two things is occurring: 1) Republicans in the sample are choosing to ID as Indys, Indys choose to identify as Dems, and so on and so forth or 2) Republicans start becoming less likely to answer phone calls or get past LV screens.  It is impossible to tell at this point which of the two is stronger in occurrence right now, though I have my reasons (based on looking at the national polls) to think that it is the latter.

One other point:  Right now, we are in the middle of the storm.  Based on what I see, it's going to take, at minimum, until next Monday before we have a completely clear picture, maybe not until next Thursday, depending on the continuance of the economic crisis.

As such, I expect Gallup to be at least Obama +4 or +5 today.

I doubt it. I hope I'm wrong though.

Why not?  Unless there are more bailouts/bankruptcies to come in the next few days, yesterday's sample should fundamentally be the worst one for McCain.  Additionally, the last *mildly* pro-McCain sample drops off today.

Keep in mind, though, that if I thought Obama had "closed the deal" with regards to the economy (which the numbers do not in any way show), you would be seeing me talk about a *permanent* shift, rather than saying to wait until next week.

My guess is it's 3-5 on Gallup, which is showing +4 Obama, probably due to the financial markets.  Some of Obama's lead on Gallup is probably being suppressed by the midweek bounce.

Quite frankly, you place too much weight in the midweek/weekend bounce theory.  I agree that there is one, but quite frankly, I can't say that it's more than a 1% at best.  That type of movement is likely to get lost in the noise.

[J. J.]

Quite frankly, you place too much weight in the midweek/weekend bounce theory.  I agree that there is one, but quite frankly, I can't say that it's more than a 1% at best.  That type of movement is likely to get lost in the noise.

I think it's there, on Gallup, and possibly above one 1%.  Rasmussen does not have it, so I think it might be the the way Gallup samples.

That's one of the reasons I take drops in Obama very seriously on Saturday-Monday and drops for McCain very seriously Wednesday-Friday, on Gallup. 

Rasmussen seems to be very study, but I disagree that it might not have a lag of 1-2 days.

Gallup reacts quickly, but it's too volatile.  Rasmussen doesn't react as quickly, but it isn't volatile.

[Alcon]

The average McCain net over-performance on weekends in Gallup was +1.2, last time I checked.  Take that as you like.

[Sam Spade]

Quite frankly, you place too much weight in the midweek/weekend bounce theory.  I agree that there is one, but quite frankly, I can't say that it's more than a 1% at best.  That type of movement is likely to get lost in the noise.

I think it's there, on Gallup, and possibly above one 1%.  Rasmussen does not have it, so I think it might be the the way Gallup samples.

That's one of the reasons I take drops in Obama very seriously on Saturday-Monday and drops for McCain very seriously Wednesday-Friday, on Gallup. 

Rasmussen seems to be very study, but I disagree that it might not have a lag of 1-2 days.

Gallup reacts quickly, but it's too volatile.  Rasmussen doesn't react as quickly, but it isn't volatile.

The Rasmussen weights are what eliminates the movement your noticing.

[Sam Spade]

The average McCain net over-performance on weekends in Gallup was +1.2, last time I checked.  Take that as you like.

Over-performance?

[Alcon]

The average McCain net over-performance on weekends in Gallup was +1.2, last time I checked.  Take that as you like.

Over-performance?

Well, "over" being relative to his week-day average, not "over" to his actual performance, which is obviously a totally un-knowable number.  But you'd think, week after week, the swings would average out enough to give us a general idea of the "weekend bounce."

[Sam Spade]

The average McCain net over-performance on weekends in Gallup was +1.2, last time I checked.  Take that as you like.

Over-performance?

Well, "over" being relative to his week-day average, not "over" to his actual performance, which is obviously a totally un-knowable number.  But you'd think, week after week, the swings would average out enough to give us a general idea of the "weekend bounce."

I get what you're saying, though you're being confusing.  I suspect we generally agree on this, however. 

[J. J.]

The average McCain net over-performance on weekends in Gallup was +1.2, last time I checked.  Take that as you like.

Over-performance?

Well, "over" being relative to his week-day average, not "over" to his actual performance, which is obviously a totally un-knowable number.  But you'd think, week after week, the swings would average out enough to give us a general idea of the "weekend bounce."

I get what you're saying, though you're being confusing.  I suspect we generally agree on this, however. 

How long was the period you looked at?

[Alcon]

I didn't do it, but IIRC, it went back to the start of the poll.

[J. J.]

I didn't do it, but IIRC, it went back to the start of the poll.

That could be a problem.  It seemed to be there over the summer.

[Alcon]

I didn't do it, but IIRC, it went back to the start of the poll.

That could be a problem.  It seemed to be there over the summer.

It seemed to be, or seemed not to be?  In any case, I think they did it monthly too, and the results appeared to be mostly noise, with a +1-2 McCain advantage.  Including rounding, that's not especially impressive either way.

[J. J.]

I didn't do it, but IIRC, it went back to the start of the poll.

That could be a problem.  It seemed to be there over the summer.

It seemed to be, or seemed not to be?  In any case, I think they did it monthly too, and the results appeared to be mostly noise, with a +1-2 McCain advantage.  Including rounding, that's not especially impressive either way.

Seem to be there, present.  I'm wondering if the looked at the number before Clinton was out.

[Lunar]

I googled "midweek bounce" and "weekend bounce" to see if there's been anyone else that has theorized about this large effect and the only two results were this thread

[Kaine for Senate '18]

Thursday - September 18, 2008:

General: Head-to-Head

McCain: 48% (nc)
Obama: 48% (+1)

I called it!  I said by Thursday they'd be tied

[ChrisFromNJ]

Friday - September 19, 2008:

General: Head-to-Head

McCain: 48% (nc)
Obama: 48% (nc)