Rasmussen Tracking Poll [Obama vs McCain]

[Zarn]

This nation is clearly at least 46% racist.

[Swing low, sweet chariot. Comin' for to carry me home.]

most likely just noise...mac hasn't provided a reason for anyone to vote for him

[Sam Spade]

As I said yesterday, an excellent Obama sample fell off today, so the movement is not surprising.  It also helps McCain in the underlying numbers that yesterday's sample was good for him - I'll see if I can figure it out later.  Also - first time McCain has led Others in Rasmussen in almost forever, fwiw.

I'm adding another line to the table - the *Certain-Likely-Lean* numbers.  With Rasmussen, the Certain + Likely = number w/o leaners.

Rounded Three-Day Sample

Obama 50%
McCain 46%

Three-Day Sample Breakdown

			samp goes tom	samp went today
Obama	49.55%	(50.73%	50.25%	50.34%	49.56%)
McCain	45.80%	(44.63%	45.46%	45.89%	46.28%)

Certain/Likely/Lean Division of Support

	Monday		Sunday		Saturday		Friday		Thursday
	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain
Certain	43.41	40.65	45.40	39.49	43.70	39.60	42.85	40.23	41.43	40.54
Likely	4.88	3.61	4.40	3.46	4.93	3.81	5.31	3.60	5.80	3.44
Lean	1.17	1.54	0.93	1.68	1.62	1.99	2.18	2.06	2.53	2.11

Party Breakdown: Three-Day Samples

	Monday		Sunday		Saturday		Friday		Thursday
	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain
Democratic	86.42	10.56	86.44	10.46	86.34	11.23	85.94	11.56	86.33	11.18
Republican	11.34	87.15	12.38	86.68	11.47	86.34	10.91	87.47	9.74	88.15
Independent	43.93	45.52	47.22	42.15	47.47	42.88	48.33	43.99	46.56	45.00

[Sam Spade]

My educated guess is that the sample yesterday was roughly Obama +2 to 3 yesterday, maybe plus +4, maybe +1.

[J. J.]

My educated guess is that the sample yesterday was roughly Obama +2 to 3 yesterday, maybe plus +4, maybe +1.

Why don't you just say between 1 and 4. 

[Rowan]

This can't be just noise if there is CLEAR movement among Indies.

[Sam Spade]

My educated guess is that the sample yesterday was roughly Obama +2 to 3 yesterday, maybe plus +4, maybe +1.

Why don't you just say between 1 and 4. 

I feel more confident about about 2-3 than I do 1 or 4.  Truthfully, ignoring where the *not sures* are going, it would be around 1.5 or so.  But you can never tell where they are, although they tend to answer questions more like McCain's people than Obamas. 

So, I would feel more confident with 1 than 4.

[J. J.]

My educated guess is that the sample yesterday was roughly Obama +2 to 3 yesterday, maybe plus +4, maybe +1.

Why don't you just say between 1 and 4. 

I feel more confident about about 2-3 than I do 1 or 4.  Truthfully, ignoring where the *not sures* are going, it would be around 1.5 or so.  But you can never tell where they are, although they tend to answer questions more like McCain's people than Obamas. 

So, I would feel more confident with 1 than 4.

Sounds like me on the Bradley Effect. 

I know the RCP numbers are down but I'm not quite ready to proclaim this a trend, in responce to Rowan.

[Rowan]

My educated guess is that the sample yesterday was roughly Obama +2 to 3 yesterday, maybe plus +4, maybe +1.

Why don't you just say between 1 and 4. 

I feel more confident about about 2-3 than I do 1 or 4.  Truthfully, ignoring where the *not sures* are going, it would be around 1.5 or so.  But you can never tell where they are, although they tend to answer questions more like McCain's people than Obamas. 

So, I would feel more confident with 1 than 4.

Sounds like me on the Bradley Effect. 

I know the RCP numbers are down but I'm not quite ready to proclaim this a trend, in responce to Rowan.

In this poll there is a trend. Just a week ago, Obama was up double-digits among Indies pre-debate.

[J. J.]

My educated guess is that the sample yesterday was roughly Obama +2 to 3 yesterday, maybe plus +4, maybe +1.

Why don't you just say between 1 and 4. 

I feel more confident about about 2-3 than I do 1 or 4.  Truthfully, ignoring where the *not sures* are going, it would be around 1.5 or so.  But you can never tell where they are, although they tend to answer questions more like McCain's people than Obamas. 

So, I would feel more confident with 1 than 4.

Sounds like me on the Bradley Effect. 

I know the RCP numbers are down but I'm not quite ready to proclaim this a trend, in responce to Rowan.

In this poll there is a trend. Just a week ago, Obama was up double-digits among Indies pre-debate.

I'm a bit suspicious of the sub samples.  I'll wait for TIPP and Gallup.

[Sam Spade]

My educated guess is that the sample yesterday was roughly Obama +2 to 3 yesterday, maybe plus +4, maybe +1.

Why don't you just say between 1 and 4. 

I feel more confident about about 2-3 than I do 1 or 4.  Truthfully, ignoring where the *not sures* are going, it would be around 1.5 or so.  But you can never tell where they are, although they tend to answer questions more like McCain's people than Obamas. 

So, I would feel more confident with 1 than 4.

Sounds like me on the Bradley Effect. 

I know the RCP numbers are down but I'm not quite ready to proclaim this a trend, in responce to Rowan.

In this poll there is a trend. Just a week ago, Obama was up double-digits among Indies pre-debate.

I'm a bit suspicious of the sub samples.  I'll wait for TIPP and Gallup.

The only two polls which would have enough Indys to make a subsample without a high MOE are Gallup and Rasmussen, so I don't get your point.

[J. J.]

My educated guess is that the sample yesterday was roughly Obama +2 to 3 yesterday, maybe plus +4, maybe +1.

Why don't you just say between 1 and 4. 

I feel more confident about about 2-3 than I do 1 or 4.  Truthfully, ignoring where the *not sures* are going, it would be around 1.5 or so.  But you can never tell where they are, although they tend to answer questions more like McCain's people than Obamas. 

So, I would feel more confident with 1 than 4.

Sounds like me on the Bradley Effect. 

I know the RCP numbers are down but I'm not quite ready to proclaim this a trend, in responce to Rowan.

In this poll there is a trend. Just a week ago, Obama was up double-digits among Indies pre-debate.

I'm a bit suspicious of the sub samples.  I'll wait for TIPP and Gallup.

The only two polls which would have enough Indys to make a subsample without a high MOE are Gallup and Rasmussen, so I don't get your point.

Okay, maybe I missed it.  What's the MOE and what's the drop been?

[Sam Spade]

My educated guess is that the sample yesterday was roughly Obama +2 to 3 yesterday, maybe plus +4, maybe +1.

Why don't you just say between 1 and 4. 

I feel more confident about about 2-3 than I do 1 or 4.  Truthfully, ignoring where the *not sures* are going, it would be around 1.5 or so.  But you can never tell where they are, although they tend to answer questions more like McCain's people than Obamas. 

So, I would feel more confident with 1 than 4.

Sounds like me on the Bradley Effect. 

I know the RCP numbers are down but I'm not quite ready to proclaim this a trend, in responce to Rowan.

In this poll there is a trend. Just a week ago, Obama was up double-digits among Indies pre-debate.

I'm a bit suspicious of the sub samples.  I'll wait for TIPP and Gallup.

The only two polls which would have enough Indys to make a subsample without a high MOE are Gallup and Rasmussen, so I don't get your point.

Okay, maybe I missed it.  What's the MOE and what's the drop been?

Well, considering Rasmussen *bot* has 1000 LV every day, and his Indy sample is 27.3% of that, he should have 273 Indy LV every day.  Now with weighting and calling issues, it might not be exactly that, but whatever.

So, over a three-day sample, we have 819 LV Indys, which gives us an MOE in the 3-3.5% range.  If we look at more days, we can reduce it even further.

If you want the exact numbers as to what the split has been for any three-day given period, just check my subsample breakdown every day.

In general, Obama has gone from roughly a 10-15 edge in Indies to more like around a five-point edge in Indies.

[Eraserhead]

Monday- October 20

Obama: 50 (-1)
McCain: 46 (+1)

Cetrain voters: Obama + 2

Don't know how this jives with one of the worst news day of the campaign for McCain.
 
 
 

We aren't seeing any of the Powell/fundraising news impact here yet (if there is any).

[Sam Spade]

Monday- October 20

Obama: 50 (-1)
McCain: 46 (+1)

Cetrain voters: Obama + 2

Don't know how this jives with one of the worst news day of the campaign for McCain.
 
 
 

We aren't seeing any of the Powell/fundraising news impact here yet (if there is any).

The first sample containing the Powell news would have been last evening. 

I sincerely doubt that fundraising news will change anyone's mind, and if you're looking for lack of voter enthusiasm, Rasmussen isn't the place to go because of the weights.

[Keystone Phil]

Monday- October 20

Obama: 50 (-1)
McCain: 46 (+1)

Cetrain voters: Obama + 2

Don't know how this jives with one of the worst news day of the campaign for McCain.
 
 
 

We aren't seeing any of the Powell/fundraising news impact here yet (if there is any).

A candidate's fundraising is quite clearly one of the major factors in determining how one votes.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Monday- October 20

Obama: 50 (-1)
McCain: 46 (+1)

Cetrain voters: Obama + 2

Don't know how this jives with one of the worst news day of the campaign for McCain.
 
 
 

We aren't seeing any of the Powell/fundraising news impact here yet (if there is any).

A candidate's fundraising is quite clearly one of the major factors in determining how one votes.

Hey J. J. and cinyc see to think so.

[Tender Branson]

Will be interesting to see how the 5 state polls will look like after the +2/3% sample yesterday.

My guess:

Colorado: Obama 50, McCain 47
Florida: Obama 49, McCain 48
Missouri: Obama 48, McCain 48
North Carolina: McCain 49, Obama 48
Ohio: Obama 49, McCain 48

[J. J.]

Monday- October 20

Obama: 50 (-1)
McCain: 46 (+1)

Cetrain voters: Obama + 2

Don't know how this jives with one of the worst news day of the campaign for McCain.
 
 
 

We aren't seeing any of the Powell/fundraising news impact here yet (if there is any).

A candidate's fundraising is quite clearly one of the major factors in determining how one votes.

Hey J. J. and cinyc see to think so.

Bandwagon effect, with good fund raising (if it's highlighted).

Phil is no doubt being sarcastic, which is lost on BRTD.  IIRC, prior to the election GHWB was out raising Clinton.

[Reds4]

Sam and any other rasmussen premium members,

Does rasmussen release these five polls any before 6 pm to premium members?

[Eraserhead]

Monday- October 20

Obama: 50 (-1)
McCain: 46 (+1)

Cetrain voters: Obama + 2

Don't know how this jives with one of the worst news day of the campaign for McCain.
 
 
 

We aren't seeing any of the Powell/fundraising news impact here yet (if there is any).

A candidate's fundraising is quite clearly one of the major factors in determining how one votes.

Read the part in bold again.

[TomC]

Some people, more than who is closest to them on the issues or who is more experienced, like to vote for winners. The Powell endorsement and the fundraising "victory" certainly could speak to those voters. Of course one could make an argument some people like to vote for the underdog as well. So, it's not a major factor, but it could be a minor one.

[© tweed]

Sam and any other rasmussen premium members,

Does rasmussen release these five polls any before 6 pm to premium members?

I think he has said in the past that he only gets the FOXNews-commissioned poll results a handful of minutes before everyone else does.

[Sam Spade]

Sam and any other rasmussen premium members,

Does rasmussen release these five polls any before 6 pm to premium members?

I think he has said in the past that he only gets the FOXNews-commissioned poll results a handful of minutes before everyone else does.

Yep.  Not posted yet.

[Keystone Phil]

Monday- October 20

Obama: 50 (-1)
McCain: 46 (+1)

Cetrain voters: Obama + 2

Don't know how this jives with one of the worst news day of the campaign for McCain.
 
 
 

We aren't seeing any of the Powell/fundraising news impact here yet (if there is any).

A candidate's fundraising is quite clearly one of the major factors in determining how one votes.

Read the part in bold again.

Which makes as much sense as saying "We aren't seeing any of the Obama wears yellow underwear impact yet (if there is any)."