Rasmussen Tracking Poll [Obama vs McCain]

[Vandervecken]

Edited to change: I believe I made a mistake. I thought you were making a snide comment of some sort. Now I think you were just reminding me that McGovern was all that I just described of Obama. I do know that, but what of it? Well, McGovern lost, and lost badly. But you'd have to admit that the electorate has changed since McGovern's day.

Or was this about NY? JJ, NY is solidly libdem in a Prexy race no matter what now. You weren't suggesting that my vote actually matters in NY, were you? I mean, that'd be lovely, but you can't really believe that.

I'm sorry I misunderstood you, JJ.

But I'm still not sure I get your point about McGovern. Is it that we can take some measure of hope in the fact that Obama is like McGovern, but without the latter's sense of minimum fair play? Or is it that you disagree with these characterizations? (The last seems unlikely, given what I've read of your posts.)

But Nixon had a monster lead in polls before the election. The outcome wasn't in any doubt. So how can we take hope from McGovern's loss?

It twists my stomach to have to write this, but it really does look like a majority of Americans are so spectacularly stupid and sheep-like that they're willing to do the equivalent of call a doctor who still uses leeches for the sick patient, in this case the patient being the economy.

I know a couple of people who own houses in Canada and, with some difficulty, but less than I would have, can relocate there. They''ve already said they're off if Obama's elected, and unlike all the Hollywood sh**theads who say they're going to Europe if [fill in name of Republican] wins, these people really will leave. I'm just not sure Canada's any better, although at least it wouldn't have a President Obama (I write those words and feel even more nauseated). Where's there left to run to if the US is being warped and wrecked by Carter II? Australia?

Fools, fools, the lot of them, all the damned ignorant fools who a month ago were voting for McCain and have now switched to Obama, because of current economic tribulations. Not a one of them, I'd bet, could tell you precisely WHY they think Obama would be better for the economy, not one, or at least not in any way that makes a rat's ass worth of sense.

Yes, I was reminding you that McGovern was described, more pointedly, in the terms you just said described Obama.  I think there are background things that strike at Obama's sincerity, but Ayers isn't one of them.  (And I think I actually would have liked Obama's stepfather.)

Nothing about NY, which I actually though Mondale would carry.  Since 1980, I have never predicted NY would go Republican.

[J. J.]

I'm just noting that the questions about candidates is nothing new.

[Mr.Phips]

I am actually starting to think that Democrats would be better off if McCain won this election, much like they would have been better off if Ford won in 1976 or George HW Bush in 1992. 

I don't think so. Granted, it is not a good time to be president, but yet ANOTHER loss in a contest that was as winnable as they get would be devastating. Democrats already can't believe that they lost TWICE to the worst president in US history.

Losing to Bush in 2000 was probably one of the worst and most dissapointing losses for Democrats.  Kerry losing in 2004 was probably a good thing, since he would probably be just as unpopular as Bush right now.   

[J. J.]

I am actually starting to think that Democrats would be better off if McCain won this election, much like they would have been better off if Ford won in 1976 or George HW Bush in 1992. 

I actually agree with the Ford analogy.

[Iosif]

Obama 50 (nc)
McCain 45 (nc)

[Zarn]

The only difference is now the favorables of the two are closer together.

McCain 53,45 (+2,-2)
Obama 56,43 (NC,NC)

[Lief 🗽]

It's actually a 5.9 point lead, but the rounding on both ends helps McCain.

[Sam Spade]

It's actually a 5.9 point lead, but the rounding on both ends helps McCain.

Incorrect.  It's roughly 5.6%.

Three-Day Sample Breakdown

			samp goes tom	samp went today
Obama	50.23%	(50.43%	51.09%	51.90%	50.50%)
McCain	44.60%	(44.69%	45.02%	44.56%	45.44%)

Party Breakdown: Three-Day Samples

	Tuesday		Monday		Sunday		Saturday		Friday
	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain
Democratic	86.49	11.59	85.90	12.16	86.29	11.63	85.75	11.61	85.15	12.10
Republican	10.71	87.14	9.65	88.17	11.91	86.41	12.27	85.20	12.23	85.41
Independent	47.07	40.40	50.43	38.72	49.81	41.58	53.38	40.78	49.44	42.88

EDIT: I decided to add the party breakdown to give everyone some more help.

[Dan the Roman]

I am actually starting to think that Democrats would be better off if McCain won this election, much like they would have been better off if Ford won in 1976 or George HW Bush in 1992.

From a downballot perspective losing the Presidency every year worked pretty well for the Democrats for forty years. Its only when they started winning in 1992 that they ran into problems.

[J. J.]

I am actually starting to think that Democrats would be better off if McCain won this election, much like they would have been better off if Ford won in 1976 or George HW Bush in 1992.

From a downballot perspective losing the Presidency every year worked pretty well for the Democrats for forty years. Its only when they started winning in 1992 that they ran into problems.

I wish I could take credit for that, but it's not from me.

[Sam Spade]

Only one Rasmussen state poll will be coming out today - Delaware.  So don't expect too much.

[Reds4]

Sam,

Any thoughts as to whether last night's individual night of polling was a decent one for McCain in the rasmussen sample?

[Sam Spade]

Sam,

Any thoughts as to whether last night's individual night of polling was a decent one for McCain in the rasmussen sample?

No clue exactly, but my gut reading of the internals says that the last three nights have been fairly similar, with more undecideds the past couple of days than the first.

[pepper11]

I am pretty sure a Pro-Obama sample is coing off tomorrow. I think the last 2 days have been about +4.  We will likely see +4 O tomorrow.

[Sam Spade]

I am pretty sure a Pro-Obama sample is coing off tomorrow. I think the last 2 days have been about +4.  We will likely see +4 O tomorrow.

I tend to disagree.  We'll see...

[Rowan]

Interestingly, both candidates have lost support the past few days and there are now more undecideds.

[J. J.]

Interestingly, both candidates have lost support the past few days and there are now more undecideds.

Fluid, and the bulk of America, I suspect, could shift.

[Eraserhead]

Interestingly, both candidates have lost support the past few days and there are now more undecideds.

Fluid, and the bulk of America, I suspect, could shift.

Whatever lets you sleep at night, right?

[J. J.]

Interestingly, both candidates have lost support the past few days and there are now more undecideds.

Fluid, and the bulk of America, I suspect, could shift.

Whatever lets you sleep at night, right?

No, like, oh, 80% of the country, I like stability. 

[Sam Spade]

Rounded Three-Day Sample

Obama 50%
McCain 45%

Three-Day Sample Breakdown

			samp goes tom	samp went today
Obama	49.98%	(50.23%	50.43%	51.09%	51.90%)
McCain	44.75%	(44.60%	44.69%	45.02%	44.56%)

Party Breakdown: Three-Day Samples

	Wednesday		Tuesday		Monday		Sunday		Saturday
	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain	Obama	McCain
Democratic	86.42	11.03	86.49	11.59	85.90	12.16	86.29	11.63	85.75	11.61
Republican	9.71	87.97	10.71	87.14	9.65	88.17	11.91	86.41	12.27	85.20
Independent	47.34	40.82	47.07	40.40	50.43	38.72	49.81	41.58	53.38	40.78

[pepper11]

So its not down to a four point margin, but the internals actually have better news for McCain. Obama was at +7 last week among 'certain voters' (Obama 45 McCain 38)- you can only see this as a premium member. Today it is only +2 (Obama 42, McCain 40). The trend has been that the leaners in Rasmussen's daily report lag a few days behind the certain voters. This has remained a consistent pattern throughout the tracking poll.  If it continues, and I expect it should - McCain should close to 2 or 3 points in the next few days.

[Sam Spade]

So its not down to a four point margin, but the internals actually have better news for McCain. Obama was at +7 last week among 'certain voters' (Obama 45 McCain 38)- you can only see this as a premium member. Today it is only +2 (Obama 42, McCain 40). The trend has been that the leaners in Rasmussen's daily report lag a few days behind the certain voters. This has remained a consistent pattern throughout the tracking poll.  If it continues, and I expect it should - McCain should close to 2 or 3 points in the next few days.

The trend is a closing of the margin for the last week or so.  Not necessarily a McCain gain very much, but a movement from Obama people to lean/likely and from Obama likely/lean to undecided.  Overall, about 3% or so total.

[Tender Branson]

Sam Spade, do you know what states besides New Mexico will be released today ?

[Rowan]

Sam Spade, do you know what states besides New Mexico will be released today ?

I know I'm not Sam Spade but I'll answer anyway.

5:00 p.m. Eastern:       Kansas President
5:00 p.m. Eastern:       New Mexico President
5:00 p.m. Eastern:       Massachusetts President
5:00 p.m. Eastern:       Illinois President

[Tender Branson]

Sam Spade, do you know what states besides New Mexico will be released today ?

I know I'm not Sam Spade but I'll answer anyway.

5:00 p.m. Eastern:       Kansas President
5:00 p.m. Eastern:       New Mexico President
5:00 p.m. Eastern:       Massachusetts President
5:00 p.m. Eastern:       Illinois President

Ahhh, thx !

My predictions:

Kansas: McCain 55-42
New Mexico: Obama 51-44
Massachusetts: Obama 59-37
Illinois: Obama 56-41