Welcome to the Runoff!: LA 2015 Liveblog

[Miles]

Tangipahoa Parish:



This is one of the parish Edwards represents in his House district. He represents a black-majority part, but still won a majority of the vote here. His father was also the parish sheriff. Tangipahoa is normally R-leaning; Mary Landrieu lost it 50/47 in 2008 and Romney got 63%.

[windjammer]

Edwards just retweeted Miles, lol.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Edwards just retweeted Miles, lol.

Miles will soon be a star like Lunar.

[Miles]

In a rare bit of good news for Vitter, his campaign got Dardenne's campaign manager.

[Miles]

Here's what I came up with for a statewide map:




I'll likely tweak a few of the smaller parishes - the shapefile is older, so I had to merge/split some newer precincts to account for that. I'm waiting to hear back from some parishes about new precinct locations/shapes. Overall though, this map should be pretty accurate.

[Flake]

Here's what I came up with for a statewide map:




I'll likely tweak a few of the smaller parishes - the shapefile is older, so I had to merge/split some newer precincts to account for that. I'm waiting to hear back from some parishes about new precinct locations/shapes. Overall though, this map should be pretty accurate.

No zoom

[Miles]

Here are some close-ups; I should have included them with the state map.

North:



Lake Charles/Lafayette:



Baton Rouge:



New Orleans/southeast:

[Miles]

^ Also, Landslide Lyndon was asking me upthread about Grand Isle. You can see in the last picture how its orange like the rest of south Lafourche Parish and politically fits there much better than Jefferson Parish.

[The Other Castro]

Wow, great maps Miles!

[smoltchanov]

Thanks Miles, excellent maps!

[smoltchanov]

Which CD would be the second one Edwards would carry in the run-off, after CD-02?

Surely - neither  CD-01 nor CD-03. Either of remaining 3 theoretically can: in 04 there is Shreveport and other Democratic-friendly areas, 05 - contains Edwards legislative district, where he greatly outperforms, 06 - a lot of urban areas and "moderate" Dardenne voters...

[Miles]

Which CD would be the second one Edwards would carry in the run-off, after CD-02?

Surely - neither  CD-01 nor CD-03. Either of remaining 3 theoretically can: in 04 there is Shreveport and other Democratic-friendly areas, 05 - contains Edwards legislative district, where he greatly outperforms, 06 - a lot of urban areas and "moderate" Dardenne voters...

Edwards' polls numbers have been looking really good in LA-03, actually.

Working backwards, I think CD1 will be the safest for Vitter. I think there's a chance his next best will be CD4, as it was in the primary.

I'm gonna say CD6 could very well be more Democratic than CD. Voters in the capitol regions of states just seem to be more politically aware. We saw this with Hagan outperforming Obama in Wake County last year. I think Jindal will similarly pull Vitter way down in Baton Rouge.

The non-CD2 districts are all typically so R that its interesting to guess in what order they'd buckle to the Democrats. Sort of reminds me of the reverse of MA-Gov last year. Baker won a a majority of the (normally heavily-D CDs) all by a very consistent margins.

[smoltchanov]

 ^IMHO, CD-03 was mostly Angelle territory in primary. And, generally, Acadiana swung heavily R since first Obama election in 2008. That's why i put it relatively low in probable Democratic percentage. But, surely, Vitter will do the best in CD-01

[Miles]

^ I know Angelle did well there, but Vitter didn't carry any precincts in Lafayette and finished 4th in Lake Charles.

[smoltchanov]

^ Interesting. Vitter, obviously, isn't an "Acadiana candidate". Neither is, probably, Edwards. Obama's cratering in Acadiana still makes me cautious...

[Miles]

In the AG race, the Democrat who was eliminated in the runoff, Geri Baloney, endorsed Landry.

As she only took 18%, I doubt this will dissuade most rank-and-file Democrats from voting for the more moderate Caldwell.

[Maxwell]

It looks like Bobby Jindal's bad approvals are even dragging along the Lieutenant Governor race - Nungesser only leads Holden by a measly one point.

Has Louisiana had a black person in a statewide office? I'm rooting hard for Kip Holden!

[DINGO Joe]

Obviously the biggest difference between the two down ballot races is that in the AG poll, African Americans make up a massive chunk of the Undecided, with in the LG race the opposite is true.   

Kip is a good candidate and did quite well in metro Baton Rouge actually running ahead of Edwards in several parishes (a Dardenne-Holden ballot was a thing in metro Baton Rouge).  Unfortunately, Holden doesn't have the money to raise his visibility much in the rest of the state.  There is a chance that Edwards-Holden could develop enough synergy to help Kip in the rural areas.  Conversely, Nungesser probably doesn't want to anywhere near Vitter during the runoff because a)Vitter b)rumors the Billy frequented the same establishment.  Still, I think it'll be hard for Kip to do well enough outside of metro areas to beat Billy.

As for AG, the only R I voted for was Caldwell cuz I don't like Landry, and while Baloney is probably a perfectly fine person, I know next to nothing about her, and I doubt most voters do either.  I still expect that most GOTV mailers and other info to the A-A community will list Caldwell and he'll win the A-A vote, but these things can be quite byzantine.

[DINGO Joe]

It looks like Bobby Jindal's bad approvals are even dragging along the Lieutenant Governor race - Nungesser only leads Holden by a measly one point.

Has Louisiana had a black person in a statewide office? I'm rooting hard for Kip Holden!

Maybe in Reconstruction, but otherwise no one has come close.  Of course Kip is light years ahead of Cleo Fields and William Jefferson as candidate.  He's diligent and earnest (clean).  He is, to use the term all the kids use these days, a bit low-energy and probably doesn't have the money/visibility to win statewide.  He'd probably need a huge A-A voter turnout to pull it off.  Not just in BR, but also NO and Shreveport and points in between.

[windjammer]

It looks like Bobby Jindal's bad approvals are even dragging along the Lieutenant Governor race - Nungesser only leads Holden by a measly one point.

Has Louisiana had a black person in a statewide office? I'm rooting hard for Kip Holden!

Well, is the LA democratic party seriously contesting the LG office?

[Maxwell]

It looks like Bobby Jindal's bad approvals are even dragging along the Lieutenant Governor race - Nungesser only leads Holden by a measly one point.

Has Louisiana had a black person in a statewide office? I'm rooting hard for Kip Holden!

Maybe in Reconstruction, but otherwise no one has come close.  Of course Kip is light years ahead of Cleo Fields and William Jefferson as candidate.  He's diligent and earnest (clean).  He is, to use the term all the kids use these days, a bit low-energy and probably doesn't have the money/visibility to win statewide.  He'd probably need a huge A-A voter turnout to pull it off.  Not just in BR, but also NO and Shreveport and points in between.

Interesting - I agree to a certain extent. To some level it'll close to the Republicans - I don't think enough to shake John Bel Edwards' considerable lead, but probably enough to drag Nungesser to an unimpressive if sufficient margin.

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

Before anyone starts screaming "LIKELY R!!!1!1!!1!1one!!!1" because of Kentucky, keep in mind that post-jungle polling in the Senate race here last year actually underestimated Landrieu's ultimate vote total. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Senate_election_in_Louisiana,_2014#Polling_2

Sure, Kentucky makes this a little worrying (grrrrr Southern whites, you cruel temptresses), but Edwards is getting much larger margins in the polls than Conway ever did, and Louisiana polls don't have a history of overestimating Democrats the way they do in Kentucky.

[Miles]

In the AG race, the Democrat who was eliminated in the runoff, Geri Baloney, endorsed Landry.

As she only took 18%, I doubt this will dissuade most rank-and-file Democrats from voting for the more moderate Caldwell.

Yep:

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[Zache]

Seems like Dardenne will endorse JBE tomorrow morning. That's what people are saying on Twitter at least.

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[/]

Seems like Dardenne will endorse JBE tomorrow morning. That's what people are saying on Twitter at least.

Yay!

Has Angelle endorsed yet? If he does, it will probably be for Vitter, but still...