Welcome to the Runoff!: LA 2015 Liveblog

[Miles]

Rothenberg/Gonzales rating change: Lean R from Likely R.

[Brewer]

Rothenberg/Gonzales rating change: Lean R from Likely R.

...what?

[The Other Castro]

Rothenberg/Gonzales rating change: Lean R from Likely R.

...what?

As in they previously had it as Likely R, but they are now switching that rating to Lean R.

[Brewer]

Rothenberg/Gonzales rating change: Lean R from Likely R.

...what?

As in they previously had it as Likely R, but they are now switching that rating to Lean R.

Oh! Jeez, I had read that the wrong way and was incredibly confused.

[Miles]

Louisiana Sheriffs Association endorses Edwards.

I don't blame them for not wanting to be spied on by Vitter's people!

Great job, LA GOP! I'm sure openly mocking the sheriffs will look good:




And I thought the Democrats were supposed to be to be the anti-police party...

[The Other Castro]

Lol at this response:

[Miles]

^ Yep!

Yikes, another twist in the spy scandal - don't be too critical of Vitter on here, guys...otherwise his investigators may come track you down:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Miles]

^ No, I'm pretty sure Edwards would be unopposed if Vitter withdraws.

The closest precedent I can think of is 1987. Edwin Edwards came in second place in the primary but refused to go to the runoff. Roemer placed first in the primary and won the Governorship with 33%.

[Ebsy]

^ No, I'm pretty sure Edwards would be unopposed if Vitter withdraws.

The closest precedent I can think of is 1987. Edwin Edwards came in second place in the primary but refused to go to the runoff. Roemer placed first in the primary and won the Governorship with 33%.

This is correct.

[Miles]

The ad wars are getting into full swing:

Edwards has a positive spot out talking about integrity. "David Vitter wouldn't last a day at West Point" is a great line.

The anti-Vitter Gumbo PAC has a good ad using Angelle and Dardenne against Vitter.

Finally, Vitter wasted no time in resorting to his usual politics of fear. He accuses Edwards (and Obama, of course) of wanting to let 5,500 'thugs' out of prison.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Doesnt Louisiana have a freakishly large prison population? What do the candidates think about the criminal justice reform that is in vogue right now?

[Landslide Lyndon]

The ad wars are getting into full swing:

Edwards has a positive spot out talking about integrity. "David Vitter wouldn't last a day at West Point" is a great line.

The anti-Vitter Gumbo PAC has a good ad using Angelle and Dardenne against Vitter.

Ouch! I knew that there was no love lost between Vitter and Angelle or Dardenne but not even Democrats would attack the former so harshly.
I'll make a wild guess and say than both of them will not endorse Vitter. 

[Miles]

Jefferson Parish:

[IceSpear]

Lol at this response:

LOL

Diaper Dave just got torched.

[ElectionsGuy]

Jefferson Parish is like two parishes in one. One is above the river, the other is everything else.

[RINO Tom]

Lol at this response:

LOL

Diaper Dave just got torched.

ROFL

[Miles]

Jefferson Parish is like two parishes in one. One is above the river, the other is everything else.

Pretty much. I did a post least year on Jefferson Parish.

The north (called the Eastbank because its on the side of the country east of the Mississippi) is middle/upper class and very white. Most precincts are >70% R. One of the first places that the GOP had a presence in LA, at least on the state level.

The Westbank (everything south of the Mississippi) is mostly working class and racially diverse. Its actually quite Democratic-leaning; Obama even carried it with 51% in 2008 while he lost the parish overall by 27%.

The reason Jefferson parish is an R-leaning parish overall is that the Eastbank usually outvotes the Westbank 60/40.

[Miles]

Baton Rouge:




Its nice to see that Vitter was completely shut out at the precinct level. Angelle carried three precincts in Central, a heavy GOP municipality with a strong socon presence.

I'd bet that Dardenne's showing here helped Sen. Dan Claitor to win outright in SD16.

[Landslide Lyndon]

What's up with that lone precinct Angelle carried at the south part of Jefferson parish?

[Miles]

^ That's Grand Isle. It only has about 1300 people and is relatively isolated, as the area between it and the rest of the parish is swamp/water. Its a tourist destination, but there are some blue-collar workers there in the fishing/oil industry. The only way you can access it by land is via Lafourche Parish (which voted for Angelle, too).

[Landslide Lyndon]

^ That's Grand Isle. It only has about 1300 people and is relatively isolated, as the area between it and the rest of the parish is swamp/water. Its a tourist destination, but there are some blue-collar workers there in the fishing/oil industry. The only way you can access it by land is via Lafourche Parish (which voted for Angelle, too).

So they voted for their fellow Acadian/Cajun I suppose.

[Miles]

^ Yeah. Grand Isle has a lot more in common with the rural bayou parts of the state than it does with the rest of suburban Jefferson Parish.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I don't know if anybody noticed, but apparently disgraced ex-rep Vance McAllister tried to make a comeback against incumbent senator Walsworth and epically failed.

[smoltchanov]

I don't know if anybody noticed, but apparently disgraced ex-rep Vance McAllister tried to make a comeback against incumbent senator Walsworth and epically failed.

Of course. But - not surprised, 38% after big scandal in VERY conservative district against extremely conservative (may be even THE most conservative in state Senate) incumbent (even McAllister was slightly more moderate) is bad, but not SO bad, IMHO...

[Joe Republic]

Yay! First major election in a year.

AOSHQDD Results here: http://dd.aoshq.com/results/louisiana-governor/

Polls closing in 13 minutes. Go Dardenne!

I love that map. Cartograms are so much more useful than regular county maps.

I find them confusing, and they distort the shape of the counties.

Do you understand the purpose of a cartogram?  (You never respond to criticism, so I'll leave this as a rhetorical question.)