COVID-19 Megathread 5: The Trumps catch COVID-19

[Grassroots]

IHME model now pushed back the dates where many states can safely reopen. Georgia is now June 22nd, Florida is June 14th, Illinois is may 16th

What

[Grassroots]

Georgia better be lucky it's a southern state, cause the heat is all that's gonna save them now.

IHME model now pushed back the dates where many states can safely reopen. Georgia is now June 22nd, Florida is June 14th, Illinois is may 16th

What

New cases today ar over 1,000 one of the highest recorded

Breaking news: Backlog inserted!!!!

Prepare for your inevitable doom! Mwahahaha!

[Grassroots]

 

Georgia better be lucky it's a southern state, cause the heat is all that's gonna save them now.

IHME model now pushed back the dates where many states can safely reopen. Georgia is now June 22nd, Florida is June 14th, Illinois is may 16th

What

New cases today ar over 1,000 one of the highest recorded

Breaking news: Backlog inserted!!!!

Prepare for your inevitable doom! Mwahahaha!

It wasnt a backlog

It only takes common sense to know that it is.

[Grassroots]

I'm back. In the two weeks I've been gone, I (and everyone else) now have a much clearer picture about this virus and where we are going.

I think we are going to be generally back to normal by July. Cases p/d are not decreasing, only because testing is surging. Today (5/7) had the most tests in a day so far. The only metric that works now is percent of positives, which continues to fall to the lowest point (9%) since testing for this virus began.

Deaths have been decreasing steadily, which is very good because it's literally a two week lag from the cases p/d. Today and yesterday have had a not so good amount of deaths, but this is due to NY dumping a backlog of nursing home deaths (about 700) yesterday.

The treatment front is ok. Remdesivir is at least generally effective, and it should be in the hands of anyone who needs it within one to two weeks at best, before the end of this month for sure. That itself should lower the death rate considerably. Along with plasma treatments which have shown great promise, and multiple others in development, I am very optimistic.

The vaccine front is great. We may very well have one approved by September. But be careful, it's unlikely that they will be in the hands of the public before November/December even if that happens.

[Grassroots]

I'm a fan of the measures for now, but the only thing I don't really like is the masks. My concern is that people won't know when to stop using them. I'm worried people will keep using them after the threat is gone, and I don't like that.

[Grassroots]

Mask wearing will probably be a common thing, it is what stops most asian countries from suffering as badly from the flu, when I used to work at a restaurant a lot of the asian customers would come in wearing masks

It won't be a common thing after vaccines (and/or effective treatments) roll out. I'm worried about the meantime, after we enter the neutral state after the wave is over when we have 100--300 cases per day nationwide. Wearing masks during that period is still hysteria and I won't have it.

[Grassroots]

I am rejecting all handshakes, that's dead for a very longtime.

I see no reason why handshakes wouldn't return to norm after this pandemic ends.

[Grassroots]

Daily new cases decreased on a Friday? Even by a little that's a good sign.

[Grassroots]

A private report by a group called MACE based on cell phone location data says that there was no activity in a high security section of the Wuhan Institute of Virology between Oct. 7 and 24 of last year. Further it appears there is additional evidence that there may have been an accident at the lab between Oct. 6 and 11, rather specific dates. If this is true then there has been a half-year long coverup of how this thing started. Just breaking on NBC now.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/report-says-cellphone-data-suggests-october-shutdown-wuhan-lab-experts-n1202716

These people's heads should be on f**king spikes.

[Grassroots]

For anyone looking for a rare positive development in all this, today had the lowest percentage of positive tests since way back on March 16.

Rare?

[Grassroots]

BC has done remarkably well compared to almost all other jurisdictions, but I'm worried too. The weather has gotten a lot nicer and people are definitely starting to throw caution to the wind. Beaches have been packed and people are definitely out and about.

Warm weather also hurts the virus, so I guess it cancels out.

[Grassroots]

The rate of positive tests in the U.S. just tumbled to 7.25% today. Also the fewest deaths since March 29.

The number of new cases was just a tiny bit over 20,000, despite a lot of testing.

It appears we are now fully on the downslope. At this rate we should be back to normal by July, not even factoring in heat and treatments.

[Grassroots]

The rate of positive tests in the U.S. just tumbled to 7.25% today. Also the fewest deaths since March 29.

The number of new cases was just a tiny bit over 20,000, despite a lot of testing.

It appears we are now fully on the downslope. At this rate we should be back to normal by July, not even factoring in heat and treatments.

How do you define normal here?

A very small amount of cases and deaths per day. Say, 100-500 cases p/d nationwide, and 50 ish deaths p/d nationwide. Essentially a South Korea situation.

[Grassroots]

The "NO MASKS ALLOWED" is just baffling to me.  

I think they were arguing for the Government to not force things upon them including the Mobile App that the Government wants everyone to download.

And I would have to agree. Forced apps is a major red flag.

[Grassroots]

The coronavirus has reached the heartland:

Unreleased White House report shows coronavirus rates spiking in heartland communities
Trump's claim that cases are falling everywhere is contradicted by his own task force's report, obtained by NBC News, showing the virus spreading far from the coasts.

The ripple is nearing it's end, but it's still moving.

[Grassroots]

At this current rate, I believe that we will reach 125,000 deaths by August. I don't believe it will be any higher.

[Grassroots]

I'm extremely annoyed by people thinking that it's a black and white rift between reopening and keeping the orders in place.

It's like people refuse to acknowledge heat in this.

[Grassroots]

Haven't really researched it tbh, but is there any actual proof that the virus is significantly reduced in warm weather? I mean, the thing is spreading just fine in Brazil, Ecuador and Peru for instance.

Yes, just look at South Africa and Australia, and to an extent India. Also, look at how well several southern states are doing (Florida, Texas, Georgia, Alabama) compared to their governor's loose strategies.

Does anyone have "US minus New York" numbers? It seems like New York being through the worst of it is accounting for most or all of the decline in new cases.

It’s not just New York, things in NJ, LA, and MI are looking positive. That being said, smaller states are seeing substantial case growth and need to be monitored.
(This is why we should have had an actual quarantine of the NYC metro)

Testing is surging, cases p/d are probably going to continue to increase while the testing surges, the actual amount of cases p/d is declining almost everywhere. The only acceptable metric is percent of positives, which is declining everywhere.

[Grassroots]

Haven't really researched it tbh, but is there any actual proof that the virus is significantly reduced in warm weather? I mean, the thing is spreading just fine in Brazil, Ecuador and Peru for instance.

Yes, just look at South Africa and Australia, and to an extent India. Also, look at how well several southern states are doing (Florida, Texas, Georgia, Alabama) compared to their governor's loose strategies.

Does anyone have "US minus New York" numbers? It seems like New York being through the worst of it is accounting for most or all of the decline in new cases.

It’s not just New York, things in NJ, LA, and MI are looking positive. That being said, smaller states are seeing substantial case growth and need to be monitored.
(This is why we should have had an actual quarantine of the NYC metro)

Testing is surging, cases p/d are probably going to continue to increase while the testing surges, the actual amount of cases p/d is declining almost everywhere. The only acceptable metric is percent of positives, which is declining everywhere.

Is it declining everywhere?
I only know it’s declining nationally and in CO.

Almost every state, minus Wisconsin and some northern plains states.

[Grassroots]

Haven't really researched it tbh, but is there any actual proof that the virus is significantly reduced in warm weather? I mean, the thing is spreading just fine in Brazil, Ecuador and Peru for instance.

UV light is bad for it so there's probably a correlation there. But the thing spreads just fine indoors where the temperature is typically between 70 & 80 no matter where in the world you are, unless it's a very poor area.

Humidity is also very bad for it.

[Grassroots]

California Mayor is apparently trying to push the stay at home order through July (which isn't going to be necessary due to the case trend). Hopefully he realizes what that means and he will come back to reality, but expect riots if he doesn't.

[Grassroots]

California Mayor is apparently trying to push the stay at home order through July (which isn't going to be necessary due to the case trend). Hopefully he realizes what that means and he will come back to reality, but expect riots if he doesn't.

I highly doubt there will be riots for that. I think most people have been expecting long lockdowns for a while now.

Through July? Lol no

[Grassroots]

In vaccine news Oxford is so far they're reporting those who got the actual vaccine in their study are doing fine and none showed any bad effects So far 4 Vaccine candidates are doing well one from Pfizer, Oxford, Moderna and Sinovac Biotech.

Though I don't expect a vaccine to be distributed before years end

I can see one being given before years end to vulnerable people if it's approved before November, which seems plausible.

What is hitting me so hard is the historic implications of reaching a vaccine this fast. Even if a vaccine couldn't be found for two years, it would still be an epic milestone for humanity unlike any other.

[Grassroots]

California Mayor is apparently trying to push the stay at home order through July (which isn't going to be necessary due to the case trend). Hopefully he realizes what that means and he will come back to reality, but expect riots if he doesn't.

I highly doubt there will be riots for that. I think most people have been expecting long lockdowns for a while now.

Through July? Lol no

It would be incredible if everything goes back to normal by the end of July.

Keep telling yourself that.

[Grassroots]

California Mayor is apparently trying to push the stay at home order through July (which isn't going to be necessary due to the case trend). Hopefully he realizes what that means and he will come back to reality, but expect riots if he doesn't.

I highly doubt there will be riots for that. I think most people have been expecting long lockdowns for a while now.

Through July? Lol no

Yeah, 4+ months of stay-at-home orders will not be tolerated well by many.

Too bad for them.

You must be one of those who prioritizes fighting the virus over gradually reopening the economy, a reopening process that would be attended with precautions. We've already seen the negative, and extensive economic impacts from the few months of shutdowns we've had. I think it would be in LA County's interest to adopt a "safer-at-home", phased reopening approach, similar to that occurring here in Colorado.

We are absolutely nowhere near prepared to reopen; look what is already happening to countries who’ve checked all the right boxes in order to reopen, yet are already seeing signs of a second wave. America half-assed its lockdowns, we have a large segment of our population unwilling to even wear a simple mask in public, have nowhere near enough PPE, and people think we are in any way prepared to begin reopening?

There is literally no evidence that countries that reopened are seeing second surges. Iran saw a little bump but that appears to be going down now. As for states that have re opened, there's no bumps.