2016 Republican Nomination Poll - April 2015

[Bull Moose Base]

Jeb till proven otherwise.

Since when aren't you predicting Walker?

[Bull Moose Base]

Who are the jokers voting for Cruz?

Haven't you heard?  The GOP base is just so rabidly conservative.  Just ask former nominees Santorum, Huckabee, Keyes, and Buchanan.

Oh wait.

Except a lot of the base didn't love Santorum and Huckabee. Rush Limbaugh, for example, rallied his listeners to stop Huckabee. On the other hand, his and others' gushing over Cruz is probably a factor in Cruz's rise in the polls.

[Bull Moose Base]

Who are the jokers voting for Cruz?

Haven't you heard?  The GOP base is just so rabidly conservative.  Just ask former nominees Santorum, Huckabee, Keyes, and Buchanan.

Oh wait.

Except a lot of the base didn't love Santorum and Huckabee. Rush Limbaugh, for example, rallied his listeners to stop Huckabee. On the other hand, his and others' gushing over Cruz is probably a factor in Cruz's rise in the polls.

Cruz has also been a much more consequential figure (such that it is) than any of those people have been. I still don't think he has much of a shot, but that counts for something.

My point was Cruz has wider appeal within the GOP primary electorate than past Iowa winners Huckabee and Santorum. Those guys had strong appeal to social conservatives but alienated movement conservatives and were poor fundraisers. Cruz appeals to both social and movement conservatives and is a strong fundraiser. The implication that a candidate will lose the GOP nomination for being too conservative isn't backed up by those past examples. Not saying Cruz is in as strong a position as Bush or Walker but I think he's clearly the third most likely nominee, much more so than Paul (whose record will alienate large chunks of primary voters) and Rubio (who offers nothing that Bush or Walker don't already).