2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

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Biden's GA deficit is now 1267

Irrespective of who wins or loses Georgia, Trump performed better virtually everywhere than the Republicans did in 2018, yet Brian Kamp won the governorship in Georgia by 53,000 votes.  I think this provides even more evidence that Brian Kamp stole the governorship.

That was with a midterm electorate and this is with a general election electorate. In a state like Georgia with a strong age divide, that will benefit the Republicans over the Democrats. Also why Republicans do better in the runoffs.

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Biden's GA deficit is now 1267

Irrespective of who wins or loses Georgia, Trump performed better virtually everywhere than the Republicans did in 2018, yet Brian Kamp won the governorship in Georgia by 53,000 votes.  I think this provides even more evidence that Brian Kamp stole the governorship.

That was with a midterm electorate and this is with a general election electorate. In a state like Georgia with a strong age divide, that will benefit the Republicans over the Democrats. Also why Republicans do better in the runoffs.

Totally disagree.  2018 was a semi-wave Democratic cycle.

I don't think the electorate in Georgia swings as much as in other places. Demographics and who turned out and who didn't are much more important.

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The GA GOP's best bet is basically draw some legislative gerrymander that holds the decade which should be easy, Maine Rule the state for presidential stuff and then just pray the GOP makes legitimate gains with black voters before 2032.

Much better to actually appeal to people as opposed to doing shady sh**t like that. CA GOP went for Prop 194 and you see where that ended up. Rather they should follow the GOP model in Texas and Florida with Hispanics. In my opinion those state parties saved Trump with Hispanics in those states. Especially Texas.

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So I've been looking at the Florida swing map on the New York Times. Almost everything looked as I would expect at this point: big swing R in South Florida, slight D swing on East/West coasts, small swings through central Florida, and then a good D swing near Jacksonville and a good R swing into the Tallahassee area.

What surprised me though is the 4-8 point swing towards Biden in the Florida panhandle. I know he lost by a ton anyway, but that doesn't seem like the sort of area that would be trending his way. Okaloosa County currently has the biggest pro-Biden swing in the state at 8.1%. Anyone have any ideas why that happened?

Similar trend to other metropolitan Southern areas. Lots of college educated folks used to vote for Republicans in those areas before Trump so the swing away is exaggerated just like the WWC heavy northern areas that swung hard away from Democrats because so many WWC were voting Democrat there.

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Biden saying loud and clear THIS IS A MANDATE.

Mandate for what?

Not Trump?

Yes, indeed.

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So this election will have the highest turnout since 1896.

You know, when a populist appealed strongly to the rural WWC and drove up their turnout, only to lose by 4.5 points anyway to a pretty likable mainstream candidate because “elites” in the midwest and Northeast opposed him even more strongly for the same reasons he fired up his supporters.

WJB was arguably a socialist

Still a populist. Populists tend to be socialists or fascists, though that's not always true.

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Trump will still win imo.

You've got to start living in the real world.

It's not official yet. Lot of fraud allegations

Yeah, by Trump himself and no one else. There is nothing there. There would have to be systemic fraud over multiple states for Trump to win and we don't have any evidence of that anywhere in the UNITED STATES OF AMERICA. LOVE IT OR LEAVE IT.

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Very good speech. Exactly the tone that he needs to hit, and keep doing it for the next four years. If the Republicans obstruct obtusely against this, they will face the consequences.

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https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1325207580629667840

It’s a super spreader event.

They wear masks though. If your idiot in chief had done something as simple as wear a mask, he might have won four more years. If you act irresponsibly, you will face consequences.

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Haha I wonder if they show up to the unveiling of his library. Will he even have a library lol?

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From https://arizona.vote/ballot-progress.html, it looks like Navajo dropped some ballots.  Biden's statewide lead is 18553.  Plugging the new ones in my spreadsheet, it looks like there are an estimated 102,437 ballots left - 7553 waiting for signature cure, 44668 provisionals, and 50216 waiting to be tabulated.  Using my optimistic-for-Trump assumptions:

1) 50% of the signature cures will be accepted.
2) 80% of the provisionals will be accepted.
3) Trump will run 10% ahead (and Biden 10% behind, so a net 20%  for Trump) of the current margins in each county.

With these numbers and assumptions, 89727 more ballots would be counted and Trump would net 16736, leaving him still a bit short.  But close enough that it's still interesting.

Wouldn't 80% acceptance rate be a little high for provisionals? I also doubt they go to Trump by a greater margin than his current margin. Usually Democrats do much better with provisionals than other types of ballots. Perhaps it won't be as much of an advantage this year as they collapsed with the working class, but they should still be more Democratic than the votes that came before. The real question is whether it goes to Biden by a greater margin than Wisconsin.

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Hope the margin for Biden starts creeping up again.

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Friendly reminder that the electoral college is still the dumbest system around for electing a President.

You speak facts. Weird how so many Americans care more about corn than people.

California shouldn't dictate to the other 49 states who gets to be president.

Come on, man. You really think FLORIDA should get to dictate who gets to be president?

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The four seasons thing was already a joke, but now this is just... lol:

https://twitter.com/politico/status/1325813524069806083

Is this really the hill Republicans want to die on? Is John Roberts that stupid? I highly doubt it.

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why are republicans stalling by they want every "legal" vote to count and deal with election disputes? The election's over man, what are they doing

Fan service

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The website has updated overnight with a few additional votes from Apache County. Arizona now has the following estimated ballots left per https://arizona.vote/ballot-progress.html:

Ballots needing signature verification by 5pm MST Tuesday: 6203
Provisional ballots: 40602
Ballots ready for tabulation: 30193

Total: 76998

Updating with these numbers and using the same (very) Trump-friendly assumptions as before:

50% of the ballots needing signature cures will be accepted.
80% of the provisionals will be accepted.
Trump will do 10% better (and Biden 10% worse) than the current margins in each county.  Trump has generally not been doing this well in recent dumps.

With these assumptions, an estimated 65776 ballots will be accepted, and Trump will net 12151 of them.  He currently trails by 16985, so would finish behind by 4834.

It's over and the networks could call it.

GeorgiaModerate, can you use your math skills to see if AZ (.51 currently) has a chance of surpassing WI (.63) as the tipping point state?

It really depends how those last Maricopa ballots go and how many of those Pima provisionals are actually counted. Maricopa is the big unknown in my opinion but if you look at similar states like Nevada and Colorado, things tightened but Biden started gaining again towards the end. I am sure Biden will gain when the provisionals are counted, but will the remaining Maricopa non-provisional ballots lower Biden's margins even further before that happens? Biden actually did fairly well in the last Maricopa batch fwiw.

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If 2016 was stolen from Hillary one does have to take pause and wonder if the same couldn't be done in 2020. Right democrats? I doubt it but....

2016 wasn't stolen and neither was 2020. Stay sane.

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https://twitter.com/daveweigel/status/1326526690558955520

That is one thing AOC is right about. Pelosi should step down.

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Those messages are sickening. Republicans have become akin to a cult and a street gang. Obsessive, unreasonable demands for loyalty and threats of violence for not complying with said demands.

Democrats need to start putting some people in jail or else they won't get the message.

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https://twitter.com/drewharwell/status/1329439591892475905
Remind me again why Hillary was wrong for saying half of Trump supporters are awful?

She was not.  Around 50% of Trump supporters are literal criminals yet it's inappropriate to discuss this fact.  Instead we must allow them to engage in their criminality in plain view. 

If Democrats don't hold them accountable when Biden is in office I am going to vote straight Republican in the midterms and tell my elected officials that I'm doing it in protest of their inaction.

"The Republican Party is full of criminals, so if you don't prosecute them, I'll vote for them instead." What kind of logic is that? Why not vote for the Libertarian candidates instead?

Non Swing Voter's posts, from what I've seen, seem to be routinely hyperbolic in their tone and language, and almost seem to be the perfect caricature of the "elitist" suburbanite who is so despised by the Republican base. As I've stated elsewhere, many of those who voted for Trump are indeed morally detestable, but the same can be said for many Biden voters, and such overgeneralizations don't work to the benefit of anyone.

There is only one side that is trying to steal the election. There is only one side that is trying to throw out ballots.

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So how many votes are actually left out there outside of NY? Looks like almost everybody else is pretty much done?

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Electoral Vote tracker, based on official/certified states + DC

31/51:

184 Trump
121 Biden

Further evidence that Biden is home and dry.

Even if the last two Trump-Biden swing states (AZ and WI), plus NE-02 ended up mired in some judicial BS, there are enough Safe-D states to take Biden to 284 votes.

I don't think Giuliani is about to pull off some great surprise/coup, but it's nice to be one step closer to Trump's removal from office.

Is New York going to finish counting in time to certify, that's the real question here.

They are basically done counting. The certified results from the counties/NYC should be in next week.