I don't buy early polls, but to answer the question, no, she won't win re-election. She's running in a city with a strong machine presence and strong African American presence. She won by a plurality as multiple African Americans split the vote, I don't think she's as lucky this time. And regarding the Trump thing, Brenda Jones could easily adopt anti Trump rhetoric, which would cancel out her only chance.
My prediction: Brenda Jones 56-44 over Rashida Tlaib (inc.)
Disagree. Even considering the fact that she's not black in a black VRA seat (even a seat which has a black State Senate seat within it that unseated a longtime white incumbent for a random black candidate who didn't campaign, no less), she's polling over 50% with 1/6th to 1/4th of the electorate undecided.
Prior to this poll, I understand how Tlaib could lose the primary, considering how close it was in 2018. But at this point, if she's polling at 56% with Brenda Jones only at 19% on the hypothetical ballot, then I think sure she's practically secured her seat at this point.
Yeah, the other squad members are way safer (obviously nobody's wrong in saying that she's the most vulnerable Squad member) but with these kinds of numbers, I'd say that she's still unlikely to be toppled.
Poll
