Dictatorial parties don't have an "ideology" besides keeping power.
That's not strictly true. If we look at the example of Bangladesh, BAKSAL was clearly to the left of the BNP. The point stands, though.
Yeah, of course there are a lot of exceptions usually. Ideology can be very strong in totalitarian regimes, it's easy to find examples in the history. But generally, I think ideology tends to fade away when a party holds power for too much time. China is of course the best example of that.
Would you say the same for Franco and Salazar ?
I think you're right also for them, but I'm not so sure you'd agree with yourself
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In fact, those parties WERE socialist in the way many "liberation struggles" against colonial powers were. First, sincere; then, only nationalist and authoritarian after some years/months/days in power.
As for other Arab countries which can be destabilized,
- Libya and even Algeria are currently too tightly ruled; though Algeria, due to its wide population will be destabilized but not before some years,
- Sudan and Yemen are far too diverse and complex to have a so-called "modern" and "democratic" revolution; already, results in Tunisia and Egypt won't be so clear (please stop see everything in black/white, FF/HP, "democracyyyyyyy" and through western eyes); so, if there are troubles in core Sudan or in Yemen, that would be only a way for some faction to grasp an opportunity (and Al-Jazeera buzz) to take power or ot bargain;
- Morocco hasn't enough people fed up with the regime and it's richer and richer; it's pretty safe;
- Jordan is of course "worrying" in a way, but heavy American presence there, while the country is far more tinier than Egypt and Abdullah is a bit more aware of "risks" may provide a safe ground to save the regime for the moment;
- Syria and Kuwaït may be better candidates for "the next one": Syria hasn't succeeded in its recent reforms and economic situation is bad; what is more, Assad's power is still disputed inside the regime, though he is a bit stronger than after Daddy's death; and Syria hasn't been very successful in foregin matters;
Kuwaït is completely different but it isn't a tiny Gulf state; it has a larger population which seems to be fed up with the regime and all its false changes, its turnarounds, etc.
