The Next Tunisia/Five Arab states that are ripe for revolution

[dead0man]

link
No quote, but I'll list the five and give the gist of what the article says.  Food prices seems to be the spark.
Algeria=same kind of issues Tunisia had/has, but not quite as bad
Egypt=nobody knows what's going to happen when Mubarak dies and that could be any time now
Libya=it's got a nice beat and I can dance to it....I'll give it a 64
Sudan=Bashir is one of the bigger douchebags in the world and has lots of enemies in country and out.  Sadly he cracked down pretty hard on the opposition this week (throwing them all in jail).
Jordan=meh, the economy sucks

[Antonio the Sixth]

Actually, I noticed that at the beginning the riots hurt both Algeria and Tunisia, but apparently they weren't as massive there.

[Lief 🗽]

Well I wouldn't mind revolutions in the first four, but deposing the monarchy in Jordan would be a tragedy.

[phk]

United Arab Emirates

[Antonio the Sixth]

Well I wouldn't mind revolutions in the first four, but deposing the monarchy in Jordan would be a tragedy.

Why ?

[Sbane]

Well I wouldn't mind revolutions in the first four, but deposing the monarchy in Jordan would be a tragedy.

Why ?

Whatever replaces it won't be so nice.....

[Antonio the Sixth]

Well I wouldn't mind revolutions in the first four, but deposing the monarchy in Jordan would be a tragedy.

Why ?

Whatever replaces it won't be so nice.....

Why not ? We didn't speak about which regime we would replace the current ones with. Just that the current ones should fall.

[Sbane]

Well I wouldn't mind revolutions in the first four, but deposing the monarchy in Jordan would be a tragedy.

Why ?

Whatever replaces it won't be so nice.....

Why not ? We didn't speak about which regime we would replace the current ones with. Just that the current ones should fall.

Would you be ok with Islamists taking over Jordan? Personally I would be fine with it because I am not a Jordanian and my opinion doesn't count. That doesn't mean don't I prefer a secular monarchy to it (with a secular democracy being the dream).

[Insula Dei]

What's being said here about Jordan also holds true for Egypt. While Mubarrak is a authoritarian dictator, he at least has brought secularism and stability to Egypt, whereas Democratic Elections might very well result in an Islamist take-over of the country. Personally I don't know whether that'd be a bad thing as long as the Islamists would respect democracy and so on, but I don't think it's something the majority of this Forum would deem a good evolution.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Well I wouldn't mind revolutions in the first four, but deposing the monarchy in Jordan would be a tragedy.

Why ?

Whatever replaces it won't be so nice.....

Why not ? We didn't speak about which regime we would replace the current ones with. Just that the current ones should fall.

Would you be ok with Islamists taking over Jordan? Personally I would be fine with it because I am not a Jordanian and my opinion doesn't count. That doesn't mean don't I prefer a secular monarchy to it (with a secular democracy being the dream).

I was not reasoning comparatively. The Jordanian monarchy is an awful regime no matter what the alternatives are.

[CatoMinor]

Hey Lief, About those countries that you wouldn't mind revolution in...

Egypt: led by the NDP - Social democrats and members of Socialist International
Tunisia: I guess until recently, the CDR - formerly members of Socialist International
Algeria: Parliament led by  the NFL- an socialist party.
Libya: Controlled by Gaddafi, a socialist dictator.

Sudan: The only one of the 5 with a right-wing government.

Just thought I'd mention it.

[Insula Dei]

Hey Lief, About those countries that you wouldn't mind revolution in...

Egypt: led by the NDP - Social democrats and members of Socialist International
Tunisia: I guess until recently, the CDR - formerly members of Socialist International
Algeria: Parliament led by  the NFL- an socialist party.
Libya: Controlled by Gaddafi, a socialist dictator.

Sudan: The only one of the 5 with a right-wing government.

Just thought I'd mention it.

None of these parties are 'socialist' in a meaning of the word that you'd associate with it.

[opebo]

Well they're all ripe but lets hope none of them revolt, and lets give the old guard some credit in Tunisa, they may still be there behind the scenes, waiting this out, planning to put the genie back in the bottle.

[Hash]

Hey Lief, About those countries that you wouldn't mind revolution in...

Egypt: led by the NDP - Social democrats and members of Socialist International
Tunisia: I guess until recently, the CDR - formerly members of Socialist International
Algeria: Parliament led by  the NFL- an socialist party.
Libya: Controlled by Gaddafi, a socialist dictator.

Sudan: The only one of the 5 with a right-wing government.

Just thought I'd mention it.

That's probably the worst argument I've heard. And that takes a lot.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

I think Saudi Arabia is more likely than Jordan.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Forget about Libya.

[phk]

Well I wouldn't mind revolutions in the first four, but deposing the monarchy in Jordan would be a tragedy.

Why ?

Whatever replaces it won't be so nice.....

Why not ? We didn't speak about which regime we would replace the current ones with. Just that the current ones should fall.

Would you be ok with Islamists taking over Jordan? Personally I would be fine with it because I am not a Jordanian and my opinion doesn't count. That doesn't mean don't I prefer a secular monarchy to it (with a secular democracy being the dream).

If the Jordanians want a Muslim Brotherhood-led government, they should be allowed to have one.

All this talk of "I want Arabs to have secular governments" is nothing more than mere imperialism and intervention in internal affairs of said countries of the sort that caused these problems in the first place.

[Lief 🗽]

Sure it is. And I'm fine with that. I really don't care what 50%+1 of the Jordanians want. The monarchy is better for them and the region and the world than a radical Islamist regime.

[tpfkaw]

Hey Lief, About those countries that you wouldn't mind revolution in...

Egypt: led by the NDP - Social democrats and members of Socialist International
Tunisia: I guess until recently, the CDR - formerly members of Socialist International
Algeria: Parliament led by  the NFL- an socialist party.
Libya: Controlled by Gaddafi, a socialist dictator.

Sudan: The only one of the 5 with a right-wing government.

Just thought I'd mention it.

That's probably the worst argument I've heard. And that takes a lot.

I'm interested to know: What determines whether a fascist dictator is a man of the people or not?

[CatoMinor]

Hey Lief, About those countries that you wouldn't mind revolution in...

Egypt: led by the NDP - Social democrats and members of Socialist International
Tunisia: I guess until recently, the CDR - formerly members of Socialist International
Algeria: Parliament led by  the NFL- an socialist party.
Libya: Controlled by Gaddafi, a socialist dictator.

Sudan: The only one of the 5 with a right-wing government.

Just thought I'd mention it.

That's probably the worst argument I've heard. And that takes a lot.

Who said I was making an argument, I just got a chuckle out of a leftist supporting revolution in countries ran by leftists. But I suppose we should be happy that you did not just respond with an "idiot", "moron" ect, a big improvement for you. I guess somewhere deep down buried under layers of rudeness there is some goodness left.

Getting back on topic, like I said, wasn't making an argument, just pointing out that because I found it funny.

[phk]

Sure it is. And I'm fine with that. I really don't care what 50%+1 of the Jordanians want. The monarchy is better for them and the region and the world than a radical Islamist regime.

The monarchy is not better for them, which is only good for a select rich 300 families.

They want socialist Islam, which is better for the poor.

How would it matter for the world at large what government Jordan has? It's a tiny irrelevant country, [which seems content to export its malcontents to Iraq], that could be eliminated by the wind misdirecting an Iranian nuke.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The term 'socialist' within the context of Arab dictatorships meant/means very little other than that the regime is in favour of 'modernisation' (which used to mean 'the regime spends a lot of money on massive infrastructure projects' and isn't too keen on foreign companies and now means 'the regime likes the money that foreign companies can bring with them'), that the regime is not particularly keen on Islam in general and political Islam (in all its many and varied forms) in particular, that the regime used to believe in Arab Nationalism (no one does now, obviously) and that the regime used to buy weapons from Warsaw Pact countries.

As to why certain political parties that were (and are) neither Socialist or democratic ended up as members of the Socialist International in the 1970s,* it should probably not come as a great shock to learn that that had more to do with internal SI power struggles (particularly between Carlsson and Brandt) and Cold War 'realism' than a conviction that such parties were blood brothers of European Social Democracy. There are equally dodgy parties in other international groups of political parties and the reasons for their inclusion tend to be very similar.

*Mostly the 1970s anyway.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Hey Lief, About those countries that you wouldn't mind revolution in...

Egypt: led by the NDP - Social democrats and members of Socialist International
Tunisia: I guess until recently, the CDR - formerly members of Socialist International
Algeria: Parliament led by  the NFL- an socialist party.
Libya: Controlled by Gaddafi, a socialist dictator.

Sudan: The only one of the 5 with a right-wing government.

Just thought I'd mention it.

Fail.

[Middle-aged Europe]

Hey Lief, About those countries that you wouldn't mind revolution in...

Egypt: led by the NDP - Social democrats and members of Socialist International
Tunisia: I guess until recently, the CDR - formerly members of Socialist International
Algeria: Parliament led by  the NFL- an socialist party.
Libya: Controlled by Gaddafi, a socialist dictator.

Sudan: The only one of the 5 with a right-wing government.

Just thought I'd mention it.

Fail.

Stritly speaking, those parties' ideologies are a blend of socialism and nationalism (no, not national socialism ), so technically they're a bit of both. Also, Tunisia's former ruling party is the RCD and not the "CDR", and Algeria is ruled by the FLN and not the "NFL".

[Antonio the Sixth]

Dictatorial parties don't have an "ideology" besides keeping power.