Abbott is still on track to win, but this will likely end up being the closest gubernatorial election in Texas since 2006. If this were a Trump midterm, Abbott would likely be toast.
Abbott would still win even if Trump was re-elected, but maybe by a margin of like 6% rather than 10-15.
There's a lot of unjustified Dem hopium around Beto. Given the way the national environment is moving very rapidly towards Rs, I don't really think anything less than a 10 point Abbott win is in the cards the way things stand at this moment. I'm sticking with my 12 point prediction though it could easily get slightly better or worse for Beto in the next 20 days.
