2004 User Predictions - Discussion

[Siege40]

This just may be my ignorance, but why would Bush win Wisconsin, Ohio and PA etc. but win Iowa. Or am I missing something States.

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Did you mean 'lose' for one of those?

I meant to say. 'but Kerry win Iowa.'

What's the latest poll out of Iowa say about the Dems vs. The GOP?

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As States says - by polls alone, Iowa has looked almost secure of late.

Excellent....

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[Siege40]

I think it has to do with local State Governments, based on the previous post before his map.

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[Siege40]

This is going to sound rediculously stupid, but what's the date of the 2004 election?

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[Siege40]

Question, why is a state like Arkansas a Tossup? To me at least it seems pretty conservative. Arkansas is the only Battleground state that doesn't make much sense to me, can someone help me out?

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[Siege40]

That's a good idea Gustaf, have Clinton campaign in Missouri, Arkansas, Tennessee and Louisiana see if he can grab more votes for the Democrats.

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[Siege40]

Shouldn't Clinton, if he campaigns a lot, be able to win Arkansas for Kerry?

Now, I know it isn't the same when he runs as compared to when he endorses, etc. But still, he's a fairly recent ex-president and favourite son. If he could knock up Arkansas by a few % that could well be enough.

Well, what I have heard recently is that that has become exactly the plan.  Kerry has embraced Clinton and asked him to spend the next three months campaigning around the southern swing states like Louisiana, Arkansas, Tennessee, Missouri and such.  

I think it's a great idea.  Clinton still has the same old Elvis magic.  He gives a speech better than Monika Lewinski smokes a cigar.  There are a lot of Monday Morning quarterbacks who say that this was one of Gore's (many) big errors.  The Lewinski/Jones debacle was still fresh and Gore thought that Clinton was too tainted by it to be much use as a campaigner.  I think that was a poor decision, but hindsight is 20-20.

Clinton is going to stump for Kerry, and I think it can only help.  The polls still show everything very tight.  The race is a close one and people are sticking to their guns.  It's too close to call right now.  I don't expect a big bump from the conventions, either.

freedomburns

That's odd... those are the states I specifically name.... I'm not suppose to be good at politics.... wierd

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[Siege40]

Current Snapshot:


Kerry/Edwards 312
Bush/Cheney 226

Kerry has been up since he picked Edwards (mid-July) on my map.  I'm trying my best not to get excited, because I learned my lesson in 1992 when Perot dropped out.

Well I don't know. I agree with 96% with your prediction. However, the most recent poles I've seen have Bush winning Nevada. Also, in most poles I've seen Missouri is a dead die. But in the end it'll go Bush. Making Missouri the incorrect Bellweather state only twice in its history (Adlai Stephenson I think was the other).

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[Siege40]

The tide seems to have shifted, for me at least it's a predicted Bush win.... sadly.

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