Looks like McMullin 2016 voters are breaking 41-40 Biden / Trump according to this poll.
Also Biden +16% among women in Utah!
McMullin himself endorsed Biden, so it's clear that many of his voters are heeding him and moving over to the Democrats this year. Hopefully Biden manages to permanently raise the Democratic floor in the state. Given that even Mitt Romney underperformed in the 2018 midterms, losing two counties (Grand and Summit) and almost losing Salt Lake County, I think that he will. Utah is not going to vote over 70% Republican again anytime soon, that much is for sure.
Interesting... I hadn't looked at the 2018 UT-SEN GE for comparison....
So does anybody else think that Salt Lake County might actually not only be a DEM PRES win in 2020, but even possibly a DEM 50%+ County?
So now how do we look at
Utah and
Weber Counties within the context of 2020?
I would expect that McMullin '16 voters in UT in '16 would tend to break more heavily DEM in "Urban" parts of the State, and that Rural Mormon McMullin Voters much more likely to break Trump.
McMullin '16 voters along the Eastern Valley between the Great Lake and the Mountains, would be much more predisposed to vote Biden > Trump, I suspect,
especially in the College Town of Provo.
Utah County haven't really looked at it much other than the 2018 CD results....
https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=386520.msg7510652#msg7510652Most of us around here aren't that familiar with Utah Political Geography and Political Sociology, but the struggles are and having always been fought in the streets and battles of Public Opinion, and plus there is a whole new Generation of UT-Mormon Voters that might have different opinions, since after all LDS only started to move hard DEM back in the '70s, and Reagan exploited that in the Mountain West States....
***Is McMullin Stumping for Biden in Utah ***If not, why not?
Can't imagine it would take that many donors for a McMullin Biden endorsement Ad to be played in what are relatively inexpensive media markets of SLC....
