Michigan : Biden +11

[MT Treasurer]

How many more of these do we need? We already know the Democrats will easily carry Michigan after Trump's fluke in 2016. Michigan polls are known for their accuracy after all.

Early polls aren’t always predictive, but I think you’re really overestimating Trump here. Polling wasn’t off by 11 points in 2016 (not even close) and it was relatively accurate in 2018. I don’t disagree that MI is winnable for him, but unlike Obama in 2012, he really has zero margin for error, and even that’s being generous to him considering that he only won it by 10,000 votes against a very flawed candidate the first time he ran.

[MT Treasurer]

I mean, early polls had Stabenow ahead by much more than polls closer to the election. She still won by 6.5%, but polls had her ahead by much more than 11%. I certainly don't think Trump is done for in Michigan, and Democrats would be wise to take Michigan seriously as a swing state.

Were voters' opinions of Stabenow as hardened as of Trump? Hardly. Trump isn’t done for in MI, but it’s kind of silly to assume that he’ll easily close an 11-point gap by talking about Biden's voting record when he barely beat Hillary Clinton of all people in 2016. I don’t even think that he or any other Democratic nominee will come close to winning MI by double digits, but they don’t need to win the state by a large margin in order to win the presidency. Trump’s the one facing an uphill battle here (and in PA/AZ/etc.), not Democrats.