Michigan : Biden +11

[Frenchrepublican]

Biden leads Trump 52/41 in the state according this poll from Epic-MRA

https://eu.freep.com/story/news/local/michigan/2019/06/14/donald-trump-behind-joe-biden-michigan-poll/1446377001/

This poll is in line with other polls which have showed Trump deeply underwater in Michigan

But there are two big red flags
Biden is winning 12% of republican voters
Biden is winning Northern Michigan

[Politician]

Michigan polling overestimates Dems, yada yada, etc. but it should be obvious Trump is an underdog in Michigan, and that his win was comparable to Obama's win of IN in 2008.

[Frenchrepublican]

Michigan polling overestimates Dems, yada yada, etc. but it should be obvious Trump is an underdog in Michigan, and that his win was comparable to Obama's win of IN in 2008.

Yeah, he is the underdog but I wouldn’t go as far that comparing his 2016 win to Obama’s win of IN in 2008 which was really a fluke

[Frenchrepublican]

Yeah, it will obviously tighten, but I really don’t see him winning without MI and PA.

Did they poll the Senate race lol?

No they didn’t

Maybe it will come later

[Podgy the Bear]

Basically, Trump is holding his base and at this time, he is alienating/has alienated those voters who were skeptical but supported him in 2016.  For the moment, those voters have swung to Biden (or prospective Democratic nominee). 

I know that we're over 16 months away from a general election, but Trump's problem is that the opinions of him are hardened on both sides.

[pbrower2a]

EPIC-MRA, Michigan:

(This) poll ... offers only a statistical snapshot of the electorate at a given point in time and, nine months before the Democratic primary and 17 months before the general election, there is no saying who will win the Democratic nomination or whether Trump can build more support and get reelected.

But it does indicate continued issues for the president in a state that helped him win the Electoral College vote three years ago. According to the poll:

    49% of those surveyed outright support Biden, who was President Barack Obama's vice president, with 3% leaning toward supporting him, compared with 37% who support Trump and 4% who lean toward supporting the president.  Only 7% were undecided.

    Biden had a 57%-35% edge in metro Detroit, the most populous area of the state, but also led the outer ring of Detroit's suburbs, 62%-35%, and in northern Michigan, 46%-42% according to the poll. Trump held slight leads of 3 percentage points in central and west Michigan and in and around Bay City.

    Biden led among all age groups but had an especially large lead — 65%-to-27% — among younger voters ages 18-34. Porn said that suggests that even if younger voters select someone other than the 76-year-old Biden in the Democratic primary, they would still consider supporting him in the general election.

    While white voters split between the two candidates with 47% each, African Americans supported Biden 95%-3%.

    While Democrats supported Biden 93%-2%, Trump can't count on the same level of support from Republicans, with 83% supporting him and 12% backing Biden. Meanwhile, among self-described independents, 48% supported Biden, 36% supported Trump and 16% were undecided. 

The Biden-Trump matchup was the only head-to-head contest polled in June by EPIC-MRA even though there are nearly two dozen Democrats running for the nomination to face Trump in 2020.

But note well:

1. Donald Trump will not win re-election if he gets only 83% of the Republican vote
2. He will not win Michigan (or many other states) if he breaks even with the white vote
3. He cannot win Michigan without winning northern Michigan (the Upper Peninsula and the northern Lower Peninsula
4. He is doing badly in the outer suburbs of Detroit, where he did well enough to win the state
5. He is nearly breaking even in 'western Michigan', which is almost identical to Indiana in its voting patterns.

Michigan is not a microcosm of America, politically or otherwise.

[Gracile]

I think this may be a touch too Biden-friendly.

[Brittain33]

Michigan polling overestimates Dems, yada yada, etc. but it should be obvious Trump is an underdog in Michigan, and that his win was comparable to Obama's win of IN in 2008.

Yeah, he is the underdog but I wouldn’t go as far that comparing his 2016 win to Obama’s win of IN in 2008 which was really a fluke

Why isn’t it comparable? It was a right place, right time, right opponent, right level of effort high water mark that was both predictable and unthinkable.

[Gass3268]

Should note that Michigan polls have generally sucked in Presidential races for the last two cycles. In 2012 they were way too friendly to Romney and in 2016 they were way to friendly to Clinton. Plus we can't forget the massive 2016 Democratic Primary screwup.

[DrScholl]

Trump is not going to win Michigan again and that should be abundantly clear by now.

[Politician]

Should note that Michigan polls have generally sucked in Presidential races for the last two cycles. In 2012 they were way too friendly to Romney and in 2016 they were way to friendly to Clinton. Plus we can't forget the massive 2016 Democratic Primary screwup.

In 2018 Michigan polls actually slightly underestimated Stabenow and nailed Whitmer's margin.

[Frenchrepublican]

Michigan polling overestimates Dems, yada yada, etc. but it should be obvious Trump is an underdog in Michigan, and that his win was comparable to Obama's win of IN in 2008.

Yeah, he is the underdog but I wouldn’t go as far that comparing his 2016 win to Obama’s win of IN in 2008 which was really a fluke

Why isn’t it comparable? It was a right place, right time, right opponent, right level of effort high water mark that was both predictable and unthinkable.

Michigan was never a D stronghold, Bush came very close to win it in 2004 and Michigan has elected numerous republicans to statewide offices over the past two decades, it’s why the decision of Clinton campaign to ignore the state was foolish. Indiana on the other hand was a republican stronghold which had not voted D since 1964, and most of the time republican victories were not close, in 2004 Bush had won Indiana by more than 20 points, and with the exception of Evan Bayh few democrats were able to win statewide elections in Indiana, it’s why the victory of Obama in 2008 was so surprising

[ElectionsGuy]

How many more of these do we need? We already know the Democrats will easily carry Michigan after Trump's fluke in 2016. Michigan polls are known for their accuracy after all.

[MT Treasurer]

How many more of these do we need? We already know the Democrats will easily carry Michigan after Trump's fluke in 2016. Michigan polls are known for their accuracy after all.

Early polls aren’t always predictive, but I think you’re really overestimating Trump here. Polling wasn’t off by 11 points in 2016 (not even close) and it was relatively accurate in 2018. I don’t disagree that MI is winnable for him, but unlike Obama in 2012, he really has zero margin for error, and even that’s being generous to him considering that he only won it by 10,000 votes against a very flawed candidate the first time he ran.

[Xing]

I mean, early polls had Stabenow ahead by much more than polls closer to the election. She still won by 6.5%, but polls had her ahead by much more than 11%. I certainly don't think Trump is done for in Michigan, and Democrats would be wise to take Michigan seriously as a swing state.

[MT Treasurer]

I mean, early polls had Stabenow ahead by much more than polls closer to the election. She still won by 6.5%, but polls had her ahead by much more than 11%. I certainly don't think Trump is done for in Michigan, and Democrats would be wise to take Michigan seriously as a swing state.

Were voters' opinions of Stabenow as hardened as of Trump? Hardly. Trump isn’t done for in MI, but it’s kind of silly to assume that he’ll easily close an 11-point gap by talking about Biden's voting record when he barely beat Hillary Clinton of all people in 2016. I don’t even think that he or any other Democratic nominee will come close to winning MI by double digits, but they don’t need to win the state by a large margin in order to win the presidency. Trump’s the one facing an uphill battle here (and in PA/AZ/etc.), not Democrats.

[ProudModerate2]

... But there are two big red flags
Biden is winning 12% of republican voters
Biden is winning Northern Michigan

I said it before.
We can not overlook THE FACT that Biden will pull more GOP voters away from trump, than any of the other Dem candidates (those that are in the top 4-to-5 positions at this time).

[Yank2133]

... But there are two big red flags
Biden is winning 12% of republican voters
Biden is winning Northern Michigan

I said it before.
We can not overlook THE FACT that Biden will pull more GOP voters away from trump, than any of the other Dem candidates (those that are in the top 4-to-5 positions at this time).

Yeah, there is a reason why he has been trying to separate Trump from the GOP (it is nonsense). He is trying to give an off ramp to GOP voters who are having regrets.

[Frenchrepublican]

... But there are two big red flags
Biden is winning 12% of republican voters
Biden is winning Northern Michigan

I said it before.
We can not overlook THE FACT that Biden will pull more GOP voters away from trump, than any of the other Dem candidates (those that are in the top 4-to-5 positions at this time).

He will maybe win 6% of republican voters rather than 4% for Harris or Warren but I doubt that he will win 12% of them like this poll is suggesting

[Xing]

I mean, early polls had Stabenow ahead by much more than polls closer to the election. She still won by 6.5%, but polls had her ahead by much more than 11%. I certainly don't think Trump is done for in Michigan, and Democrats would be wise to take Michigan seriously as a swing state.

Were voters' opinions of Stabenow as hardened as of Trump? Hardly. Trump isn’t done for in MI, but it’s kind of silly to assume that he’ll easily close an 11-point gap by talking about Biden's voting record when he barely beat Hillary Clinton of all people in 2016. I don’t even think that he or any other Democratic nominee will come close to winning MI by double digits, but they don’t need to win the state by a large margin in order to win the presidency. Trump’s the one facing an uphill battle here (and in PA/AZ/etc.), not Democrats.

No, but I don’t think their opinions of Biden are as hardened, either. Trump should definitely be worried about his current MI numbers (as well as his numbers in PA and WI), but especially if Biden’s strategy is to just talk about Trump, I could see a lot of the undecided voters breaking for Trump.

[Terry the Fat Shark]

Michigan polling overestimates Dems, yada yada, etc. but it should be obvious Trump is an underdog in Michigan, and that his win was comparable to Obama's win of IN in 2008.

I don't think Indiana 2008 is a good comparison....especially since MI was close prior to this so it wasn't a massive shock for it to flip. I think it's more like NC 2008

[Progressive Pessimist]

I think this may be a touch too Biden-friendly.

Was that a pun?

[Gracile]

I think this may be a touch too Biden-friendly.

Was that a pun?

No.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I think this may be a touch too Biden-friendly.

Was that a pun?

No.

I didn't think so, but I couldn't resist noticing the potential for a pun.

[ElectionAtlas]

New Poll: Michigan President by EPIC/MRA on 2019-06-12

Summary: D: 52%, R: 41%, U: 7%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details